Former President Trump is moving part of his campaign operation to New York this weekend. And a massive security operation is descending around the Lower Manhattan courthouse for a trial that could last six to eight weeks, including jury selection.

• Why it matters: The first-ever criminal trial of a former president — who happens to be a presumptive nominee — is triggering the long-expected collision between Trump's legal jeopardy and his presidential ambitions, Axios' Erin Doherty and Sophia Cai report.

The trial won't be televised, based on New York law. But the proceeding will reshape the presidential campaign in unprecedented ways.

• For at least four days a week, Trump likely will have to be in court, facing allegations that he falsified business records to cover up a hush-money payment to a porn star just before the 2016 election.
• He'll sleep at Trump Tower.
• The trial is expected to be in recess on Wednesdays. So Trump will likely use those days and weekends for campaign events.

Trump's team also will continue to treat every moment he's at a microphone outside the courtroom as a campaign event.

• His campaign has been in touch with surrogates about doing media hits about the election while he's in court.

During a press conference with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) at Mar-a-Lago yesterday, Trump said when asked about the trial: "I will testify — absolutely." But it's far from clear he actually will.

• That would be another unprecedented moment in a trial full of them — but many legal experts doubt he'll actually risk having to answer a range of questions under oath.

⚖️ Hundreds of prospective jurors are expected to show up at the Manhattan courthouse on Monday, when prosecutors and Trump's attorneys will begin a jury-selection process that could last up to two weeks.

• Jurors won't be asked about their political affiliations. But they will be asked questions about their news sources, whether they've worked for Trump or attended one of his rallies, and whether they've ever been members of the Proud Boys or the QAnon movement.

Hope Hicks, a former close Trump aide, is expected to testify and provide key details on what was happening in the former president's inner circle in the days before the 2016 election.

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The American driver is facing the worst price shock in a generation:

• Costs are soaring at every turn — from decades-high borrowing costs for car loans to insurance rates that are rising at the quickest pace on record, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes.

Why it matters: It's an affordability crisis slamming consumers in an area where they have little ability to cut back.

🧮 By the numbers: The average interest rate on an auto loan is the highest in almost 20 years, according to Bankrate. The surge reflects the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking campaign.

Auto prices have dropped some, but remain well above the prices seen before the pandemic.

• A used car, on average, is $18,600 — nearly 40% higher than in 2019.

🚨 Perhaps the stickiest car-related cost surge has been auto insurance. This week's Consumer Price Index showed insurance prices up 22% over the last year, the largest annual jump seen in data that goes back 40 years.

• Keep reading.

Former President Trump leads President Biden by one point among registered voters nationwide, 46% to 45%, in the widely covered New York Times/Siena College poll — a Biden gain from February, when Trump led by four.

• Why it matters: Biden has been improving in polls since last month's State of the Union.

"You can't exactly call a one-point deficit the 'Biden comeback,'" writes Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn, "but the result adds to a growing list of polls finding him inching up over the last month."

• "16 national pollsters (of varying quality) have taken polls before and after the State of the Union. On average, Mr. Biden is running about 1.4 points better in the post-State of the Union polls than in earlier surveys by the same pollsters."

Between the lines: The main reason Biden ticked up in Times/Siena appears to be his improved standing among his 2020 voters — 89% now vs. 83% in February.

• The poll of 1,059 registered voters has an overall margin of error of ±3.3 percent.

Read Nate's column (Gift link) ... Explore the data.

Trillions of cicadas will emerge this spring in the Midwest and Southeast in numbers not seen in decades and possibly centuries.

• This double brood of periodical cicadas is being called a "cicadapocalypse" or "cicadageddon."

The last time these two broods came out together was 1803 — 221 years ago. Then-President Thomas Jefferson wrote about cicadas in his Garden Book, but mistakenly called them locusts.

🔎 Zoom in: A 13-year and 17-year brood emerging at the same time is called a co-emergence. They're fairly common, occurring every 5–6 years.

• An even bigger cicadatacular is due in 2089 — 65 years from now

Check out the full project from Axios Visuals ↗

The White House is rolling out its latest response to high inflation: It'd be much worse if former President Trump wins.

• Why it matters: President Biden knows that inflation has given voters bad vibes — and that there's not a lot they can do to lower it before November, Axios' Hans Nichols reports.

🥊 So they're turning to a new line of attack: warning voters inflation could climb higher if Trump imposes new tariffs and gives more tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans.

• "MAGAnomics is inflation-feeding welfare for the rich," White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates writes in a memo to Biden allies, out this morning.
• "Not only will Bidenomics lower costs even more, but it will also attack inflation by undoing tax giveaways for rich special interests."

The other side: In reply, the Trump campaign pointed to a tweet by senior adviser Jason Miller saying that with Biden, it's "always someone else's fault."

• Read the memo ... Full story.

The collision of inflation and pandemic-era trends has changed the way we shop.

• Zoom in: Customers are frustrated by sky-high prices and accustomed to pandemic perks like at-home delivery, curbside pick-up and quick, remote appointments, according to Gallup polling of workers in retail, health care and beyond.

🛒 By the numbers: 43% of workers said post-pandemic customers are more demanding.

• 28% said they expect remote service.
• 11% said their interactions with customers are more emotional these days.

“Consumers feel like they are spending more money on things, and the expectation is almost that they will receive better service as compensation,” Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, tells Axios.

• “All of this means retail staff have a much harder time keeping up with what customers want, especially in cases where labor hours or staffing numbers have been cut."

Go deeper: Why stores are shrinking product options

Hoda Kotb, a local anchor in New Orleans early in her career, headed back to the Big Easy to celebrate five years of co-hosting the "Today" show with Jenna Bush Hager.

• They filmed their Thursday and Friday shows from the city, Axios New Orleans' Carlie Kollath Wells writes.

New Orleanians showed up in costumes and with signs — "I need a Hoda hug."

• Hager cheered her on with "Hoda knows everyone" and "Hoda is in heaven."

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You're invited: On Wednesday, Mike will grill Axios CEO Jim VandeHei at a no-holds-barred virtual event for readers who've preordered "Just the Good Stuff" — his book about life, leadership and well-being.

• Why it matters: This'll be off-Broadway Jim — sharing his thinking as bluntly as he would in a bar in Oshkosh, his hometown.

👀 How to join: Click here to preorder the book (with lots of choices of stores).

• Then drop by here to claim your free ticket. After you click "Register," you'll be asked to paste in the confirmation or receipt number as proof of purchase. (Ignore the promo-code box.)

Proceeds from the book go to help kids get through vocational school, or 2- or 4-year college.

• Order the book ... Claim your event ticket.