American retailers are growing worried that President Trump's trade war and increased volatility will lead to empty shelves, higher prices and store closures as Chinese imports screech to a halt, Axios' Kelly Tyko and Nathan Bomey report.

• 👻 The Halloween and Costume Association warned that tariffs are threatening to "wipe out Halloween and severely disrupt Christmas unless urgent action is taken."

Why it matters: A slew of companies have warned of higher prices or have already increased them, including Procter & Gamble, Best Buy, Unilever, Ford, Shein, Temu, AutoZone and Hermès.

🚢 By the numbers: The National Retail Federation expects U.S. imports to plunge by at least 20% in the second half of 2025 if increased tariffs remain in place.

• "Shortages are a real possibility," Coresight Research analyst John Harmon tells Axios.

🖼️ The big picture: Trump's trade war has sent the nation's retailers into scramble mode.

• The CEOs of three of the biggest retailers — Walmart, Target and Home Depot — privately warned Trump during an Oval Office meeting this week that his trade policy could trigger product shortages and price spikes.
• The largest companies are reportedly pressuring suppliers to absorb extra costs. "We have decades of experience" with buyers, plus longstanding supplier relationships, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon told reporters earlier this month.

👟 Smaller retailers have fewer options. "We're not eager to raise prices," Skechers USA CFO John Vandemore said. "We would not be doing so were it not for" the tariffs.

• Businesses that were already teetering are in serious trouble. "If they can't get goods, or their consumers revolt and don't want to pay the tariffs and their sales plummet, it seriously could push some retailers over the edge," Harmon said.

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As retailers fret about falling imports, American farmers are feeling the pain of declining exports.

• Sales to China of key commodities, like soybeans and pork, are plunging as the trade war begins to impact the domestic economy, Axios' Ben Berkowitz and Monica Eng report.

Why it matters: U.S. farmers export more than $176 billion in agricultural products annually — almost 10% of which is just soybean and pork shipments to China.

• Losing even a fraction of those exports for the long term could be economically devastating.

🐷 By the numbers: In the week of April 11-17, net soybean sales were down 50% week over week, and down 25% versus the four-week average, according to USDA data released Thursday.

• Net pork sales were down 72% week on week, and 82% versus the four-week average.
• "This is directly related to the tariff situation — there's no doubt about it," Rob Dongoski, global lead for food and agribusiness at consultancy Kearney, tells Axios. "There's not some other magic behind-the-scenes thing going on."

🔭 What we're watching: In his first term, President Trump bailed out farmers when 2018 tariffs on China impacted exports.

• Those bailouts, collectively, ended up being so large that they almost equaled the tariff revenue generated. This trade war is orders of magnitude larger than the last one, but there's been no explicit relief for farmers — yet.

The intrigue: If exports are falling, the surplus has to go somewhere. But the obvious option — more domestic consumption — may not be much of a solution.

• "To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States," President Trump wrote on Truth Social in March.

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The FBI's arrest of a Wisconsin judge shocked the establishment. But it's exactly the kind of escalation the MAGA base has been agitating for, Axios' Tal Axelrod reports.

• "This is not the time for summer soldiers or sunshine patriots," MAGA podcaster Jack Posobiec told Axios, invoking founding father Thomas Paine.

Why it matters: Yesterday's arrest of Milwaukee County judge Hannah Dugan, on charges of obstructing an immigration arrest, is a stunning escalation of President Trump's battles with political opponents.

🎙️ But listen to the reaction from influential voices in MAGAworld, and you can see why you can expect more moves like it.

• "I wouldn't necessarily say that what we've seen out of the DOJ so far rises to the level of full wrath when you're talking about accountability for people who waged lawfare," Natalie Winters, a correspondent for Steve Bannon's "War Room" podcast, said yesterday after the arrest. "We haven't had any names released."

The backstory: When Trump took office, his diehard fans were craving a pedal-to-the-metal offensive against the "deep state." Trump delivered a shock-and-awe series of first-100-day actions and executive orders.

• But MAGA podcasts and social-media posts showed the true believers wanted more: arrests of political foes.

⚡ On Day 1, supporters got a dose of Trump maximalism when he blanket-pardoned most of those charged over the Jan. 6 riot — including those accused of violence.

• The movement then expected a wave of arrests of bureaucrats. It never came.
• "I don't know about you, but I'm still waiting for prosecutions," Judicial Watch head Tom Fitton said earlier this month.

Behind the scenes: Attorney General Pam Bondi and FBI Director Kash Patel have urged patience, insisting to the base that they're hard at work targeting deep state provocateurs and other enemies of MAGA. Yesterday's arrest took some pressure off.

• Patel has "been taking a little heat from our base, actually," Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) said on Charlie Kirk's podcast. "Kash and Pam both — [Trump faithful] want to know: What are they doing? They need to get started. This just shows you they do a lot of stuff behind closed doors and they can't do it in public, but they're acting fast on it."

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Heads of state and royalty were among the 250,000 people gathered in St. Peter's Square at the Vatican for Pope Francis' funeral this morning.

• Attendees included the Trumps, the Bidens, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Prince William. They joined tens of thousands of ordinary people, including many young people, from all over the world.

Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, dean of the College of Cardinals, delivered a spirited and highly personal homily, AP reports.

• "He was a pope among the people, with an open heart towards everyone," Re said.

"The guiding thread of his mission was also the conviction that the church is a home for all, a home with its doors always open."

After the service concluded, a motorcade took Pope Francis's body through Rome to the Santa Maria Maggiore Basilica for his final rest.

• People lined the streets to applaud.

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President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met today at the Vatican, where they were both attending Pope Francis' funeral, and discussed the effort to end the war with Russia, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

• Why it matters: This was the first meeting between Trump and Zelensky since their explosive Oval Office shouting match in late February, which led to an unprecedented diplomatic crisis.

👀 The latest: Trump is calling for a high-level summit between Russia and Ukraine "to finish it off" and get a peace deal.

• Trump and Zelensky first huddled for a few minutes with French President Macron and U.K. Prime Minister Starmer, then set down for a 15-minute one-on-one meeting inside the St. Peter's Basilica.

"Very symbolic meeting that has potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results," Zelensky posted on X.

• Read on.

New parents looking to purchase a stroller may want to get a jump start, as the price of baby gear is climbing due to tariffs, Axios' Sareen Habeshian writes.

• Prices on baby essentials, like car seats and strollers, started increasing last week and are up, on average, by about 30%, said Elizabeth Mahon, founder of D.C.-based children's store Three Littles.

🔎 State of play: 97% of strollers and 87% of car seats are made in China, according to Babylist, a popular baby registry platform.

• In a full-page ad in The Washington Post this week, Babylist said the tariffs are essentially a "baby tax" hitting the cost of essential gear. 13 other well-known baby gear companies, including UPPAbaby, Munchkin and Frida, signed on.

📈 The price of UPPAbaby's stroller, which Mahon said is one of the most popular strollers in the country, will jump from $899 to $1,200 in early May, she said.

• Over the next 30 to 45 days, Munchkin will up prices across about 90% of its products, which range from sippy cups to high chairs, CEO Steve Dunn told Axios.

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Highlights from President Trump's hour-long interview with TIME, marking his term's first 100 days (coming Tuesday!), via Axios' Sam Baker:

🌎 On tariffs: Trump said the U.S. is less than a month away from announcing hundreds of trade deals, and that Chinese President Xi Jinping has called him to negotiate — which the Chinese government has repeatedly denied.

• "I am this giant store. It's a giant, beautiful store, and everybody wants to go shopping there. And on behalf of the American people, I own the store, and I set prices, and I'll say, if you want to shop here, this is what you have to pay," Trump said.

📜 On the courts: "I'm not defying the Supreme Court. I never defy the Supreme Court. I wouldn't do that. I'm a big believer in the Supreme Court, and have a lot of respect for the Justices," Trump said.

🏦 On raising taxes for the wealthy, as some Republicans have proposed: "I actually love the concept, but I don't want it to be used against me politically."

• Trump said he would veto bills that cut Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid, and would sign a ban on congressional stock trading.

🇮🇷 On Iran: "If we don't make a deal, I'll be leading the pack" for war, Trump said.

Read the transcript ... Interview backstory.

McDonald's headquarters location in Chicago is known for its rotating menu of international hits. The latest addition is an Indian classic: the McAloo Tikki burger, Axios Chicago's Carrie Shepherd writes.

• The backstory: The McAloo had its debut in India in 1998 and is one of the most popular McD's offerings there.

Now, some U.S. customers can see what the hype is about for $5.99 through June 23.

• Zoom in: Tanmay Dhuri, who's visiting Chicago from the Bay Area, told Axios he had to get the burger that reminded him of growing up in India."It has nostalgic value to it," Dhuri said.

😮 One cashier said she's seen people order up to 30 at a time.