Key commodity exports plunge as Trump's trade war bites
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Sales to China of key commodities, like soybeans and pork, are plunging as the trade war begins to impact the domestic economy.
Why it matters: U.S. farmers export more than $176 billion in agricultural products annually — almost 10% of which is just soybean and pork shipments to China.
- Losing even a fraction of those exports for the long term could be economically devastating.
By the numbers: In the week of April 11-17, net soybean sales were down 50% week over week and down 25% versus the four-week average, per data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service released Thursday.
- Net pork sales were down 72% week on week and 82% versus the four-week average, the USDA said.
What they're saying: "This is directly related to the tariff situation. There's no doubt about it, there's not some other magic behind-the-scenes thing going on," Rob Dongoski, global lead for food and agribusiness at consultancy Kearney, tells Axios.
The big picture: In his first term, President Trump bailed out farmers when 2018 tariffs on China impacted exports.
- Those bailouts, collectively, ended up being so large that they almost equaled the tariff revenue generated.
- This trade war is orders of magnitude larger than the last one, but there's been no explicit relief for farmers — yet.
Between the lines: "This already looks worse than 2018," American Soybean Association economist Jacquie Holland tells Axios. "That's because there's also a trade spat with Canada, a major supplier of potash which is a really key input for soybean production.
- "Farmers are going to feel the pain of this at so many points on the supply chain, not just from the prices that they receive."
The intrigue: If exports are plunging, the surplus has to go somewhere, but the obvious option — more domestic consumption — may not be much of a solution.
- "To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States," President Trump wrote on Truth Social in March.
- But pork demand in the U.S. has been challenging in recent years, meaning there's no ready consumer safety valve. (International demand has been falling as well — and ironically, China was one of the few bright spots for growth before the tariffs hit.)
- On the soybean side, Holland said there are calls for the EPA to increase biodiesel usage requirements, which she said could stabilize the market but wouldn't fully replace lost demand.
The bottom line: Spring planting season is in full swing now, but it's already looking like a rough year for farmers.
- "1.4 billion people in China, that's a tough customer to replace," Dongoski said.
