Axios AM

December 31, 2025
๐พ Hap-py New Year's Eve! We're ending '25 with a special AM takeover to reflect on what made us optimistic this year. There were real, genuine reasons for hope, captured here as our year-end gift to you.
๐ฌ THANK YOU for making this the world's smartest breakfast table. Let us know how we can be more useful in '26: [email protected] and [email protected].
- Smart Brevityโข count: 1,354 words ... 5 mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for deftly orchestrating. (Good luck roasting your duck tonight!) Edited by Andrew Pantazi.
1 big thing: AI-fueled breakthroughs
AI-driven scientific innovation accelerated, yielding real-world benefits from robotics to health care.
- Why it matters: Powerful new models and computing tools are influencing everything from how experiments are designed to how results are analyzed, Axios' Maria Curi writes.
Here are some of 2025's biggest AI-driven breakthroughs:
1. Diagnoses for Alzheimer's and related diseases are on the road to becoming faster and cheaper with AI.
- Researchers announced tech is helping find future therapies and better detection.
- One study found a gene linked to Alzheimer's โ a discovery possible because AI helped visualize the protein's three-dimensional structure.
2. Google released AlphaGenome to better understand diseases and accelerate drug discovery.
- The model processes long DNA sequences and provides high-quality predictions.
3. Humanoid robots are getting better at dexterity and human interaction.
4. Weather forecasting is more powerful: Researchers are combining AI with physics-based climate models to predict extreme weather that may happen every 1,000 years โ "gray swan" events.
- Google released a model that generates forecasts eight times faster than before.
5. High demand for cost- and emission-efficient construction materials led an MIT team to use AI to discover new concrete ingredients.
๐ฎ Mood: The Economist says America's economy "looks set to accelerate: A monetary-fiscal loosening is coming ... [Treasury Secretary Scott] Bessent has reason for new-year cheer." (pay wall).
2. ๐ก America's quiet progress


The U.S. quietly made historic progress this year on some of its deadliest and most difficult problems โ from murder and overdoses to traffic fatalities and mental health:
- Crime: The U.S. is on pace for the largest one-year drop in murders the nation has ever seen, according to an analysis by crime stats expert Jeff Asher. Crime is down in every major category (charted above).
- Overdoses: Both overdose deaths and non-fatal overdose emergency department visits appear to be down from a year before, according to early โย albeit incomplete โ CDC data. One heartening stat from the most recent available figures: Overdose deaths fell 25% in the 12 months that ended in April versus the same period a year earlier.
- Traffic deaths: Preliminary data revealed a sharp drop in traffic fatalities during the first half of the year โ an 8.2% decline over the same period in 2024.
- Mental health: Far fewer teens reported depression and suicidal thoughts in 2024 compared to 2021, according to a federal survey released this summer.
๐ง Derek Thompson โ co-author of "Abundance" and a Substacker whose work is always smart and useful โ distills the optimist's case: "I think this was a really bad year for American politics, a mediocre year for the American economy, and an exceptional year for America." Go deeper.
3. ๐ Major health leaps


Americans are getting healthier as researchers make major medical advances:
- Booze: American drinking hit a 90-year low. Just 54% of adults reported drinking liquor, wine or beer, Gallup found. High schoolers are drinking less too: 41% of 12th graders reported drinking in the past 12 months, down from 75% in 1997.
- Advancements in GLP-1s: More Americans use weight-loss drugs, including Wegovy and Ozempic, that show potential to lower the risk of everything from addiction to sleep apnea. The uptake coincides with a meaningful drop in America's obesity rate.
- CRISPR: A 9-month-old born with a rare genetic disorder became the first person successfully treated with personalized CRISPR gene editing therapy.
- COVID: Coronavirus deaths hit remarkable lows even compared to 2024. The virus fell out of the top 10 list for causes of death in the U.S.
4. ๐บ The year big events came back

Major live TV events saw a notable ratings bump this yearย โ underscoring how much audiences crave communal, real-time experiences even as their daily viewing habits fragment, Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer writes.
- Why it matters: The pandemic shift to streaming drove historic low TV ratings for live events that have started to rebound.
๐ By the numbers: Fox's Super Bowl LIX broadcast in February drew 128 million viewers, according to Nielsen, making it the most-watched Super Bowl and U.S. telecast ever.
- NBC's 99th Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade reached 34.3 million viewers across NBC and Peacock, a record combined audience.
- Nearly 45 million people watched the three Thanksgiving Day NFL games on average, according to Nielsen, shattering last year's record of 34.5 million viewers.
5. ๐ฐ Big stock gains


Stocks delivered record after record this year, with the S&P 500 up 17.5% heading into the final day of trading of 2025.
- Markets rebounded after tariff-driven volatility in the spring and climbed steadily for the rest of the year.
AI fueled the rally, with strong demand for AI chips, software and infrastructure.
- Go deeper: Bloomberg, "The 11 Big Trades of 2025: Bubbles, Cockroaches and a 367% Jump" (gift link).
6. ๐ Best of the rest

This newsletter was inspired by several columns and features rounding up the year's good-news stories:
1. N.Y. Times columnist Nick Kristof highlighted science and clean energy:
- "Energy economics have turned upside down and now offer a path forward. ... It took 68 years from the invention of the solar cell in 1954 to install the first terawatt of solar power on the planet, in 2022. It took two years to get the second. This is because solar is increasingly cheap and simple." Gift link.
2. A Washington Post feature, "The Optimist," covered positive results from cellphone bans in schools:
- "This year, [Ballard High School] in Louisville implemented a bell-to-bell phone ban." The principal said the change was immediate: "The lunchroom is loud again."
- "In the first month of school, students took out 67 percent more books than the same month last year." 4 more optimistic stories (gift link if you create a free account).
3. Noah Smith, a popular econ blogger on Substack (Noahpinion), listed 10 things going right in America, including rising life expectancy:
- "This is probably the most encouraging recent social trend in America. One of the biggest downsides of life in the U.S., compared to other rich countries, is our low life expectancy."
- "But I'm happy to report that this trend has now reversed! Not only has U.S. life expectancy more than bounced back from the pandemic, but the negative trend of the 2010s seems to be over as well." 9 more things.
4. The Washington Post editorial board gave 25 reasons to feel optimistic about 2025. The top five:
- The first American pope ... a growing economy ... GLP-1 drugs ... falling overdose deaths ... global medical innovation. 20 more good things (gift link).
7. ๐๏ธ We're good neighbors!


Ignore the hand-wringing. Americans routinely step up for their neighbors and sacrifice for their communities, Axios' Erica Pandey reported in May from Pew data.
- 76% of U.S. adults say they're very or extremely likely to bring in neighbors' mail or water plants. 67% would bring a meal to a sick neighbor.
- Even with declining trust in institutions, 72% say they'd conserve water or electricity if public officials asked.
Between the lines: The camaraderie transcends politics. Just 28% of the surveyed adults say all or most of their neighbors share their political views.
8. ๐ค 1 for the road: Confetti wishing wall

The confetti dropped in Times Square at midnight contain New Year's wishes from thousands who scribbled notes on small pieces of paper this month.
- The Times Square wishing wall received more than 180,000 submissions in person and online, according to the New York Post.
The wishes: Messages like "good health" and a desire for "sun and sand" were common.
- Many wanted to enrich their lives, with wishes like "read lots of books" and "fall in love."
We pray that the person who wants "a new pair of glasses" will get their wish.
- Others hoped for "a new car," "a new house" and "a walk-in closet."
๐ฌ Thanks for reading! Please invite your friends to join AM.
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