A growing number of top Democrats tell us privately they feel Vice President Kamala Harris will lose — even though polls show a coin-toss finish 11 days from now, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

• Why it matters: Democrats admit they tend to be hand-wringing, bed-wetting, doomsdayers. But what's striking is how our private conversations with Democrats inside and outside her campaign reveal broad concern that little she does, says — or tries — seems to move the needle.

💰 This is after Democrats spent $1 billion — nearly twice as much as Republicans — over the past three months to polish her image and soil former President Trump's. Trump and allied committees raised about half Harris' total, $92 million, from Oct. 1 to 16, the N.Y. Times reports this morning (gift link).

• And this is after Trump's cringy 40-minute onstage sway to '80s music, his threats to target "enemies within," calling his opponent "retarded" and "sh*t" — and having his former White House chief of staff say he's fascist and talked admiringly of Hitler. (A new Harris ad uses audio from the New York Times interview with the former aide, retired U.S. Marine Gen. John Kelly).

🔎 Between the lines: We're not saying Harris is losing or will lose. An earlier "Behind the Curtain" column spelled out why this is toss-up America.

• Our reporting simply reflects scores of conversations with people close to Harris and intimately involved in swing-state races, including officials inside her campaign and top Biden administration officials.
• Harris' rhetorical journey has mirrored Democratic moods — from "joy" over the summer to darkness this week, when she painted Trump as a dangerous fascist.

What we're hearing: In a troubling sign for the campaign, top Democrats are already starting to point fingers at who'd be more responsible for a Harris loss — President Biden for dragging his feet, or Harris herself. "Going down?" a top Democratic official texted.

• Democrats fear she has made too many different cases against Trump, and still hasn't fully revealed herself to voters, who crave to know more.
• "She is who she is," one longtime Democratic strategist said. "Let's hope it's enough."

Democrats say Harris faces a maddening double standard, as Trump threatens to jail adversaries and strip broadcast licenses. "He gets to be lawless. She has to be flawless," CNN senior political commentator Van Jones said this week.

• Harris' closing ads focus on Trump as the three uns: "unhinged, unstable and unchecked." (Watch the ad, "Total Power.")

🐘 The other side: Trump's closing ad campaign has been tightly focused on two clips: an ad focused on transgender rights ("Kamala's agenda is they/them, not you"), and Harris' own words on "The View" that "not a thing" comes to mind about how she'd differ from Biden. (She has since said she'd bring a "new generation of leadership.")

• Stunning stat: The Trump campaign alone has spent more than $30 million on trans-focused ads (including one in Spanish) in the past 36 days, according to AdImpact data.

Top Republicans, in private conversations, seem shockingly confident, given the consistent 50-50 polls. They talk in granular detail about White House jobs, and discuss policy playbooks for '25.

• Reflecting the bravado, Dan Scavino, Trump's longtime close aide and ghost tweeter, refers to the 45th president as "45–47," and wrote last week on Trump's Truth Social Platform: "I have ZERO interest in working with anyone who is a former colleague that disappeared upon our departure from the White House—and was no where to be found when DJT announced his candidacy on 11/15/22, or was silent throughout 2023. STOP CALLING. STOP EMAILING. STOP TEXTING——YOU'RE NOT HEARING BACK FROM ME."

🖼️ The big picture: A common gripe among high-level Dems is that Harris does a nice job explaining why people shouldn't vote for Trump — but struggles to crisply explain why they should vote for her. In other words, she's a strong prosecutor — but struggles as a public defender.

• Democratic insiders loved a line Harris used in the CNN town hall on Wednesday night, and sharpened Thursday night outside Atlanta in Clarkston, Ga: "Just imagine the Oval Office in three months. ... It's either Donald Trump in there stewing — stewing! — over his enemies list, or me, working for you, checking off my to-do list." The campaign even socialized a 15-point "Kamala Harris' to-do list."
• "Better late than never," a top Democrat told us. Another leading Democrat said: "It's good. We're not dead yet."

🔬 Zoom in: Democrats once felt very good about Nevada, a state Biden won in 2020. But early voting has them panicked. Jon Ralston, the top Nevada election expert, writes that the surge in early rural Republican voting — a "rural tsunami" — is ominous for Harris: "There is no good news in these numbers for Dems."

• Pennsylvania continues to worry Harris, despite Biden winning there in 2020. Among the seven swing states, it's the one campaign insiders think she absolutely has to win, with signs of GOP momentum in the state's Senate race.

🧠 Reality check: Harris inherited a very tough hand. Establishing and executing a campaign for president starting just 3½ months before an election is unprecedented in modern politics.

• Besides Biden being unpopular, inflation has been the incumbent killer globally. Polls and election results in Canada, the U.K., France, Germany, Japan and South Korea all show this anti-incumbent tide.

The bottom line: We can't ignore the reality that no matter what Harris says or does, this country has never elected a woman president and only once elected a Black president. It's never elected a Black woman. Toss in broad concerns about immigration and inflation, and it's a lot to overcome, her advisers say.

• Axios' Alex Thompson and Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

Share this column.

The gender gap among young registered voters ages 18-29 has more than doubled since March, Axios' Noah Bressner writes from a new Harvard Youth Poll survey.

• Why it matters: Political differences between men and women have become a defining issue this year.

The new survey reflects how Vice President Harris' entry into the presidential race has particularly energized young women voters.

• In an election this close, shifts in any voting group — even small ones — could decide the outcome.

The big picture: Trump's enormous effort to attract persuadable young male voters is running into a major problem: They don't vote.

• Harris maintains a huge lead — 55-38% — among young men who say they will definitely vote (charted above).
• Among men who are unsure if they'll cast a ballot, Trump leads 37-26%.

Share this story.

Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are both headed to Texas today, Axios Austin's Nicole Cobler writes.

• Spoiler: Texas ain't a swing state.

Both will try to use coverage from Texas — Harris with a rally in Houston, and Trump from Joe Rogan's podcast studio in Austin — to reach key voter groups in battlegrounds.

• Harris, who is expected to be joined by Beyoncé and Willie Nelson, will focus her Houston rally on the state's abortion ban.
• Trump will speak to reporters about border security — a winning issue for Republicans — from a private airplane hangar in Austin.

👓 Between the lines: Their visits to the Lone Star State also come as Democratic Rep. Colin Allred closes in on Sen. Ted Cruz in recent polling.

• Allred will appear on stage with Harris, a sign that Democrats see a possible path to victory in his uphill challenge of Cruz.

⚡ Breaking: Democrats' Senate Majority PAC will invest $5 million in pro-Allred ads focused on abortion.

If 2020 is our guide, the 2024 presidential election likely won't be decided on Election Day, Axios' Shane Savitsky writes.

• The AP called 26 states instantly as their polls closed, and another five within an hour.

The Pennsylvania call in Biden's favor — over 87 hours after polls closed — decided the race. The call for Nevada came about 50 minutes later.

• Keep reading.

Elon Musk — the world's richest man and a major contractor to the U.S. government — "has been in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin since late 2022," The Wall Street Journal reports.

• Why it matters: Musk's conversations could foreshadow U.S. reengagement with Putin if Donald Trump wins the White House, given "Trump's expressed desire to cut a deal over major fault lines such as the war in Ukraine," The Journal notes.

Another big story published by The Journal yesterday revealed that Russia "provided targeting data for Yemen's Houthi rebels as they attacked Western ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones earlier this year."

• Go deeper (gift link).

AI is likely to change our interactions with the health care system faster than it transforms the care we actually receive, Axios' Megan Morrone writes.

• Why it matters: The U.S. health care system is a confusing and expensive bureaucracy — and anyone trying to navigate care for themselves and their loved ones is going to welcome help.

🎨 The big picture: AI promoters foresee AI supercharging medical research and diagnosis — a process that's already underway.

• Share this story ... Get Axios AI+.

🦾 Breaking: OpenAI outlined its approach to national security after the Biden administration released a landmark document yesterday that labeled AI a national security priority.

• OpenAI said: "We believe a democratic vision for AI is essential to unlocking its full potential and ensuring its benefits are broadly shared. ... At the same time, we need clear guardrails and policies around how AI can be used." Keep reading.

Meta has struck a multi-year deal with Reuters to use its news content to provide real-time answers to user queries about news and current events in its Meta AI chatbot, sources familiar with the agreement told Axios' Sara Fischer.

Why it matters: It's the first news deal Meta has brokered in the AI era.

Beginning today, users of Meta's AI chatbot feature in the U.S. will have access to real-time news and information from Reuters when they ask questions about news or current events.

• Keep reading ... Get Axios Media Trends.

The World Series will bring back a historic rivalry between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees that hasn't been seen in the Fall Classic since 1981, Axios' Russell Contreras writes.

• Why it matters: This World Series contest — which starts tonight (8:08 p.m. ET, Fox) will feature the four hardest-hitting players in baseball: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani.

The Dodgers — originally from Brooklyn — moved to L.A. in 1958, but their World Series rivalry continued.

• The two most storied franchises in Major League Baseball have met 11 times in the World Series (Yankees have won 8, Dodgers 3).
• They've faced off amid a looming World War II, immigration transformations, racial desegregation and urban unrest.

Share this story.