Axios AM

November 21, 2025
π Happy Friday! Smart Brevityβ’ count: 1,356 words ... 5 mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Copy edited by Mark Robinson and Bill Kole.
π½ Driving the day: President Trump meets New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani for an Oval Office showdown at 3 p.m. ET. The stakes.
πΊ Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), a Trump nemesis from the East Bay, declared his bid for California governor on "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" β another Trump target. Kimmel told Trump last night: "I'll go when you go, OK?" YouTube.
1 big thing: Trump's Ukraine surprise
President Trump's peace plan for Ukraine includes a security guarantee modeled on NATO's Article 5, which would commit the U.S. and European allies to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the entire "transatlantic community," according to a draft obtained by Axios' Barak Ravid.
- Trump's plan demands painful concessions from Ukraine. But it also includes an unprecedented promise.
- President Volodymyr Zelensky's top objective in peace talks is to obtain a robust U.S. and European security guarantee. This is the first time Trump has been willing to put one on the table.
Between the lines: The plan could open Trump to backlash with his America First allies, as it would effectively commit the U.S. military to defending Ukraine in the event of another war.
The intrigue: The 28-point plan U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll presented to Zelensky yesterday, which was obtained by Axios, says simply that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees."
- But alongside it, the U.S. presented the Ukrainians with another draft agreement.
π Zoom in: It states that any future "significant, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community," and the U.S. and its allies will respond accordingly, including through military force.
- A senior White House official said the Trump administration views the proposed security guarantee as a "big win" for Zelensky and for Ukraine's long-term security.
Go deeper: Read the draft agreement ... Dave Lawler contributed reporting.
2. βοΈ New Saudi allegations in 9/11 lawsuit

Saudi Arabia's leader on Tuesday downplayed the kingdom's role in the 9/11 attacks. But an ongoing federal court case is revealing new details about Saudi officials' alleged ties to the terror plot β and the potential liability the Saudis face, Axios' Marc Caputo writes.
- The lawsuit unearthed evidence showing one Saudi official β who acknowledges aiding two men who became hijackers β made a drawing of a plane and a mathematical formula that allegedly could have been used to fly into the World Trade Center.
Why it matters: A crucial U.S. ally, Saudi Arabia's oil-rich kingdom was the first foreign sovereign to be sued in U.S. federal court under the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act of 2016 for the attacks that killed 2,977 people.
- For 22 years, the kingdom has fought the New York lawsuit, the largest and longest-active case in the federal court system, with 10,000 or so families of victims and insurers seeking damages in what's been called a trillion-dollar lawsuit.
Asked at the White House about 9/11 families' anger, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressed empathy but tacitly denied his government was involved in the attack.
- "We have to focus on reality, reality based in CIA documents and based on a lot of documents that Osama bin Laden used Saudi people in that event for one main purpose ... to destroy the American-Saudi relation[ship]," he said.
Go deeper: Key evidence from the lawsuit.
3. π CEO security surge
Companies are spending more on CEO security β everything from bodyguards to home security systems and armored cars, Axios' Emily Peck writes.
- Why it matters: Corporate fear jumped after last year's deadly shooting of UnitedHealthcare's Brian Thompson.
Anxiety increased again last summer after a deadly shooting inside a Manhattan office building that's home to some heavy-hitting firms β including consultancy KPMG, investment company Blackstone and the NFL.
- Security by the largest companies can include full-time protection teams, armored vehicles, advanced monitoring and threat intelligence.
4. π’οΈ Trump's plans for drilling off Calif., Fla.

The Trump administration unveiled plans for new offshore oil drilling projects off the coasts of California and Florida in areas that haven't seen drilling in decades β or ever.
- The plan spans 1.27 billion acres up and down California's coast, Alaska's Arctic seas, and in the eastern Gulf near Florida, Axios' Ben Geman and Julianna Bragg write.
The Interior Department says the lease auctions are needed to address the nation's "growing energy needs."
π What we're watching: Interest in remote, costly, and controversial projects off Alaska is a big question mark.
5. πΏ Hollywood's big bidding war

A trio of Hollywood power players submitted bids to buy all or part of Warner Bros. Discovery yesterday, launching a dramatic and historic media merger fight, Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer writes.
- Why it matters: In a hyper-competitive streaming environment, scale matters. WBD includes the nation's top-performing movie studio this year (Warner Bros. Pictures), a prestige streamer (HBO Max) and a major news network (CNN).
π Zoom in: WBD's board set a deadline for takeover bids that expired yesterday and received three different propositions, sources confirmed to Axios.
- Paramount, which already owns a top movie studio (Paramount Pictures), a major streamer (Paramount+), a broadcaster (CBS) and a slew of cable networks, has submitted a bid for all of WBD, including its cable channels like CNN and TBS.
- Netflix β which doesn't own a movie studio or TV networks, but has one of the largest subscription streaming bases in the world β submitted a bid solely for WBD's streaming and studio businesses.
- Comcast, which also owns a top movie studio in Universal, similarly is vying solely for WBD's streaming and studios businesses.
Between the lines: President Trump is seen as favoring a Paramount bid over one by Comcast, given his alliance with Paramount CEO David Ellison's father Larry Ellison β and his public disdain for Comcast boss Brian Roberts.
6. π‘ Trump, party of one
President Trump's recent blowup with Marjorie Taylor Greene is just the latest spectacular split with a one-time confidante who held prized status in his inner sanctum, Axios' Neal Rothschild writes.
- Of 24 Cabinet-level positions Trump filled this term, just three were in the first-term Cabinet and only Russell Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget, held the same role he has now.
- His current chief of staff, Susie Wiles, is the fifth he's had in five years in office.
Key staffers who have bridged both administrations include top adviser Stephen Miller, White House personnel director Dan Scavino and Communications Director Steven Cheung.
7. π A realistic female crash test dummy

The federal government will soon require carmakers to test vehicle safety systems using advanced crash test dummies that more accurately represent female bodies, Axios Future of Mobility author Joann Muller writes.
- Why it matters: Women face a much higher risk than men of being seriously injured or killed in a crash β but most vehicle safety systems are tested using male crash test dummies.
π£οΈ Driving the news: Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy unveiled an advanced female dummy β the THOR-05F β yesterday that could help close that gender gap in vehicle crashes.
- The standard crash test dummy is a 50th-percentile male representing the average U.S. soldier in the 1960s.
A female dummy, added in the early 2000s, represents a 5th-percentile woman β under 5 feet tall and 108 pounds β and thus doesn't consider the other 95% of women.
8. π° 1 for the road: Auction for last pennies
Stack's Bowers Galleries of Costa Mesa, Calif., has been chosen by the U.S. Mint to auction some of the final pennies struck at the Philadelphia U.S. Mint earlier this month, Axios Philadelphia's Mike D'Onofrio reports.
- "Each of these coins exhibits a small Ξ© privy mark of the final Greek letter Omega, indicating their role as the capstone to a two-centuries-long legacy that first began in 1793," the announcement says.
The 232 sets of pennies could fetch a small fortune, with estimates ranging from $45,000 to $5 million each, per USA Today.
- Each three-penny set includes two circulating pennies β one each from the Mint's facilities in Philly and Denver β and a 24-karat gold uncirculated penny minted in Philly.
The live auction begins Dec. 11.
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