Axios' Barak Ravid, the world's most plugged-in reporter on the Middle East, writes:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent spat with President Trump over Lebanon underscored how his military objectives — and possibly his political survival — depend on a U.S. president who doesn't share his appetite for escalation.

• Why it matters: Trump and Netanyahu have coordinated very closely on Iran and speak almost daily. But officials on both sides have been cognizant that there could be a point when the allies' interests and objectives diverge. Some in Netanyahu's camp worry that time is now.

Netanyahu himself said Tuesday that it was an "open question" whether he and Trump were aligned on how the war with Iran should end.

🖼️ The big picture: With an election expected by October, Netanyahu hasn't delivered on his promise to destroy Hamas or his plans for regime change in Iran, and he's under immense criticism at home over the ongoing Hezbollah attacks.

• Every time a siren near the border heralds an incoming drone or missile, Netanyahu faces domestic pressure to respond.
• It was in that context that he vowed major strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut — before being forced into retreat by an angry Trump, who cares far less about Lebanon than a deal with Iran.

When Trump cursed Netanyahu in a call on Monday and pulled the brakes on the Beirut strikes, he also kicked up a political firestorm in Israel.

• Rivals and even some hawkish government allies claimed Netanyahu had made Israel an American "vassal," or surrendered Israeli sovereignty to Trump.

Between the lines: While the call may have been just a blip in their personal relationship, their differences over the Iran endgame are more stubborn.

• Two senior U.S. officials told Axios that while Trump wants to end the war, Netanyahu seems to want to resume it.
• "Sometimes Bibi doesn't know when to stop," one of the U.S. officials said.

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President Trump eased one fight with Senate Republicans — scrapping his $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization fund" — only to spark another by tapping Bill Pulte for director of national intelligence, Axios' Mike Zapler writes.

• Why it matters: This time, the stakes are even higher: Democrats are threatening to let some of the government's spy powers lapse next week unless Trump yanks the appointment.
• Most of the time, Democratic outrage over Trump's latest move doesn't amount to much. But Republicans need Democratic votes to prevent a key section of FISA from lapsing June 12.

🎨 The big picture: Some of the sharpest criticism has come from Trump's own party — particularly the retiring senators he has scorned.

• Thune himself didn't mince words about Pulte. "We don't need a weaponized DNI, we need professionals there," he said.

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Americans are letting it ride with a record share of their wealth in the stock market, Axios' Matt Phillips writes.

• Why it matters: It means the AI-driven rally is enriching Americans more than usual but exposing them to potentially painful losses from a reversal.

A record 33% of the U.S. household sector's total wealth was in stocks at the end of 2025, according to Federal Reserve data.

• That beats the roughly 30% during the meme-stock-and-SPAC mania of 2021 — and the 27% share reached in Q1 2000, just as the internet boom peaked.

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Axios Chicago's Carrie Shepherd was among reporters who got an early look inside the Obama Presidential Center on the city's South Side ahead of its Grand Opening Ceremony on June 18, and public opening on June 19, Juneteenth. (Sold out. First date for online tickets is Aug. 24.)

• The museum — which cost $850 million to build — sits blocks from the neighborhood where former President Obama's political career was born.
• It also represents the foundation of his family: Former first lady Michelle Obama and their two daughters were born nearby.

Hundreds of campaign buttons and video from Obama's 2008 presidential campaign line the interior of an oval display emblazoned with his famous motto: "Yes we can."

The 19.3-acre campus includes a basketball court and gym open to the public. Longtime Obama adviser and friend Valerie Jarrett said her former boss will not be playing basketball there "if Mrs. Obama has anything to say about it."

• No presidential records outside of what's on display are stored at the center. It bills itself as the first fully digital presidential archive. Obama's papers are stored at a facility in Maryland.

Above: A collection of dresses worn by Michelle Obama. The former first lady's life story gets equal footing with the former president's throughout the exhibits.

• One famous item that's not on display: the tan suit.
• The president gave it away, Jarrett told reporters.

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A pitched battle over government regulation of AI produced a rare just-right outcome, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said yesterday at our AI+NY Summit.

• The approach in President Trump's new executive order "hits the Goldilocks spot," Krishna told Axios' Maria Curi.

Why it matters: The administration's first attempt at an order on AI and cybersecurity died at the last moment after stiff pushback from tech companies and pro-AI allies.

• The new order has a lighter touch, one that leaders like Krishna favor.

The big picture: Krishna and other speakers at the summit acknowledged the inherent tensions between government and industry, and between the AI labs and the content creators whose work they need to feed their models.

• But the mood in the room was one of cooperation: an understanding that the technology is so big, so impactful — and so expensive — that there's really no choice but to collaborate.

👀 What to watch: The other inevitable tension, CEOs said, will be between costs and people, as companies turn to AI for productivity and confront how to pay for it.

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California is losing people from its suburbs year after year, revealing a deeper demographic shift reshaping America's most populous state, Axios' Russell Contreras writes.

• Why it matters: If California's commuter engines keep shrinking, the state risks losing the diverse workforce that powers its economy — while shifting political clout to the states where those families relocate.

An Axios analysis of Census Bureau estimates reveals widespread population losses across parts of the Golden State.

• Seven of the 10 fastest-shrinking cities are Los Angeles County suburbs. The remaining three are Bay Area suburbs (Union City, Pleasanton, San Leandro).
• Many shrinking suburban hubs feature large Latino and Asian American populations — groups that historically used inner-ring suburbs as a launchpad for generational stability.

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🕶️ With counting continuing and the primary uncalled, Trump-endorsed Steve Hilton, the former Fox News host running on the promise "Change is coming," looks likely to be one of the final two for the California governor's election in November, the LA Times writes.

• Hilton is keeping his lead in Tuesday's primary tally (28%). He's likely to face either Democrat Xavier Becerra (26%) or Tom Steyer (20%).

Latest results (NYT open link) ... More on Hilton.

Expect more special police on downtown D.C. streets this summer as law enforcement agencies flood the zone with horse-mounted officers, counter-sniper teams and bomb-sniffing dogs, Axios D.C.'s Cuneyt Dil writes.

• Why it matters: A summer of marquee events — the UFC fight this month, the Grand Prix in August and a July 4th fireworks show that aims to break a world record — will pack downtown with hundreds of thousands of people this summer, officials estimate.

President Trump plans to double the National Guard deployment to 5,000 troops, part of a summer surge that includes officers from federal agencies.

• City police plan to coordinate with federal law enforcement, including the FBI and the recently expanded U.S. Park Police.

🔭 Zoom in: The Secret Service is taking the lead for July 4th, designating it as a National Special Security Event for the first time in D.C., a status usually reserved for occasions like a presidential inauguration.

• Fireworks watchers that night will have less room for lawn chairs and blankets, with the World Cup watch party and Great American State Fair also on the Washington Monument grounds.

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Hyundai and Boston Dynamics, a robotics company, built four robots — all named Spot — to help with World Cup security, Axios Dallas' Naheed Rajwani-Dharsi writes.

• Two will be stationed at the tournament's International Broadcast Center in Dallas. Two others will help at New Jersey's MetLife Stadium, which is hosting eight World Cup matches, including the final.

How it works: The robodogs have cameras as their eyes. They will guard the sites and flag any potential security risks to the humans overseeing them, FIFA says.

• Keep reading.