⚡ Latest from Axios' Barak Ravid: President Trump is considering occupying or blockading Iran's strategic Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a dramatic escalation in the 21-day war.

• Why it matters: President Trump can't end the war, at least on his terms, until he breaks Iran's chokehold on shipping through the strait, the Middle East's dominant oil hub. Global energy prices have been surging.

🔎 Behind the scenes: Three sources said an occupation of the island by ground troops is under serious consideration. Another option is to impose a naval blockade and prevent tankers from reaching the island.

• One source said Pentagon lawyers had even been consulted to provide opinions on the legality of such potential moves.

A senior administration official told us Trump "wants Hormuz open. If he has to take Kharg Island to make it happen, that's going to happen. If he decides to have a coastal invasion, that's going to happen. But that decision hasn't been made."

• A second senior official said: "We've always had boots on the ground in conflicts under every president, including Trump. I know this is a fixation in the media, and I get the politics. But the president is going to do what's right."

Context: An operation to take over Kharg Island, which sits 15 miles offshore and processes 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, could put U.S. troops more directly in the line of fire.

• Such an operation would only be launched after the U.S. military further degrades Iran's military capacity around the Strait of Hormuz. "We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations," said a source with knowledge of White House thinking.
• That would require more troops. Three Marine units are on their way to the region. The White House and the Pentagon are considering sending even more troops soon, a U.S. official said.

🪖 Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), a former Army infantry officer who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Trump had been "prudent" not to rule out a ground invasion, though Cotton wouldn't say whether he was in favor.

• Cotton contended that closing the strait was an act of desperation by Iran, but said Trump had "mountains of plans" for that contingency.

Reality check: While Kharg Island is critical to Iran's oil industry, there's no guarantee that taking it would convince Tehran to make peace on Trump's terms.

• Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery told Axios it's more likely that after around two more weeks of attacks to degrade Iran's capabilities, the U.S. would send destroyers and aircraft into the strait to escort tankers, eliminating the need for an invasion.

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It's now a familiar Wall Street two-step: Stocks stumble in the morning, then mostly recover by the end of the day after President Trump says something that's viewed as reassuring about the war, Axios' Emily Peck reports.

Why it matters: Investors are clinging to the Trump put — the idea that the president will reverse himself if the markets react badly to White House policy. But even if Trump wants this to end, Iran has to stand down, too.

• "Any little positive thing can really generate a big move in the market," says José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

💼 Case in point: Oil prices retreated from their highs yesterday, and stocks pared their losses after Trump said that he wasn't planning on sending ground troops into the Middle East.

• Investors were also apparently mollified by comments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said that Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles.

🎢 The big picture: While investors may be hopeful, it has still been a rough year so far. The S&P 500 is more than 5% off its all-time high.

• The price of Brent crude oil is up almost 50% since the war started.

🤞 Here's another Wall Street term — hopium.

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The White House is expected to send Congress its ideas for regulating AI today — even as policy disagreements on the Hill are far from resolved, sources familiar with the matter told Axios' Maria Curi and Ashley Gold.

• Why it matters: Pressure is mounting for Congress to act as states move ahead with laws that AI companies are increasingly anxious about living with.

🐘 Republicans are looking to the White House for direction on AI. But the administration plan is likely to run into the same sticking points that have stalled action for years.

• Those include how to protect children online and whether to preempt state laws that conflict with the federal standards they're trying to set.

🔮 The White House is expected to announce a legislative framework for federal AI rules.

• The framework is expected to cover child safety, communities, creators and censorship — "the four C's" outlined by White House AI czar David Sacks.
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🫏 Exclusive Dem Signal chat: Democratic state lawmakers across the U.S. are quietly coordinating AI policy and comparing notes on industry lobbying in a private Signal group chat called "Frontier AI Legislators," Ashley Gold scoops.

• The group shares and tweaks bill language and swaps insights about industry pressure, aiming to help shape national standards for AI as Congress and the White House try to land their own plans.

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For the second consecutive year, no natively English-speaking country cracked the top 10 of the 2026 World Happiness Report released yesterday.

❄️ Finland is the world's happiest country for the ninth straight year — with other Nordic countries Iceland, Denmark and Sweden close behind.

• 🇨🇷 Costa Rica surged to 4th, as a new entrant to the top five. The report credits the strength of family bonds and other social connections.
• 😐 The U.S. sits at 23rd, moving up one spot since last year.

Explore the data ... Go deeper.

Corporate mergers should pick up this year, even with war and other headwinds in the economy, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes from Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon's annual shareholder letter today.

• Why it matters: Solomon's steady outlook may prove reassuring in an otherwise highly uncertain economic environment.

As noisy as markets have been lately — the war in Iran, tariff drama, worries about bubbles in AI and private credit — Solomon's view is that a lighter regulatory environment will benefit corporate dealmaking.

• "Boards and CEOs feel there is a greater likelihood that they can execute on strategic transactions to expand their scale or improve their competitive position, and they are taking a much more front-footed approach," Solomon writes.

"We also expect strategic activity to accelerate," Solomon adds. "Now that there has been a change in the regulatory environment, boards and CEOs feel there is a greater likelihood that they can execute on strategic transactions to expand their scale or improve their competitive position, and they are taking a much more front-footed approach."

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The bid for a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket disappeared for more than 25 million people by midafternoon yesterday, fueled by 12th-seeded High Point's first-round 83-82 upset of fifth-seeded Wisconsin, AP reports.

• By the end of the first day of March Madness, fewer than one in every 2,400 entries in the ESPN bracket challenge remained perfect. That's just over 10,000 of 26.6 million brackets — 0.04%.
• The NCAA's own bracket challenge looked almost exactly like ESPN's, with 0.04% of entries still having a shot at perfection after a dozen games.

High Point was one of four double-digit seeds to win. Following the Panthers were No. 11 seeds VCU and Texas, and 10th-seeded Texas A&M.

• The NCAA estimates the chances of ending the tournament with a zero in the loss column range anywhere from one in 9.2 quintillion (if you flip a coin for every game). The odds drop a little if you make educated guesses — all the way to one in 120 billion.

Day 1 winners, losers.

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) will be out Nov. 10 with "Unapologetic: Clarity and Conviction in a World Gone Crazy," billed as a "no-nonsense account of fighting for conservative values, taking on the status quo, and laying out her bold vision for the future."

• "It's easy to be pessimistic about the future," says Sanders, 43. "But if you take a break from the news and social media, and actually go look for it, you'll still find a lot more good than evil in Arkansas and across this country. There is still hope — I see it every day in the state I lead."

Why it matters: The book drops a week after this year's epic midterms. Sanders, who was White House press secretary in the first Trump administration, is a likely future GOP candidate for president or vice president.

📖 Behind the scenes: Sanders told me that when she was growing up, her dad — former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, now U.S. ambassador to Israel — "always talked about how much he loved this job."

• "After a tough first week in this job, I asked my dad: 'You know how you always said governor is the best job in the world? When exactly does that start?'"

Sanders recalls that he laughed and replied: "Sarah, when you least expect it, a mom who was at her breaking point will approach you and thank you for the work you're doing. That's when you'll know."

• His daughter says now: "As governor, I get to meet people every day whose lives are a little bit better than when I started, and felt called to share my story — and their moments full of adversity, perseverance and ultimately hope."

More on the book.

D.C. has no shortage of luxe steakhouses — but José Andrés' new maximalist chophouse might be the most over-the-top yet, Axios D.C.'s Anna Spiegel writes.

• Bazaar Meat, which opened yesterday, lands in the former Trump hotel, replacing Andrés' Bazaar.

🍽️ Also in Washington, the marbled Old Post Office lobby inside the Waldorf Astoria (formerly the Trump Hotel) sets the stage for a see-and-be-seen dining room.

• 🍸 It's complete with $22 "Freezer Martinis," a Japanese Wagyu Program, and hulking "Big Guy" cuts — bone-in ribeyes, strips, the works.

The splurge: A whole Spanish suckling pig (9–11 pounds) for $540 — with 24 hours' notice.

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