Axios AM
September 03, 2025
1 big thing: Parade of enemies
The leaders of China, Russia and North Korea strode out together in Beijing today to attend a massive military parade — and send a message to President Trump.
- Why it matters: For the first time ever, these three nuclear-armed strongmen — long resentful of America's alliances, sanctions and "rules-based order" — are gathering to show solidarity, Axios' Dave Lawler writes.
In Washington, Trump posted a Truth Social message to China's Xi Jinping last night: "Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un as you conspire against the United States of America."
🔎 Zoom in: Dubbed the "Axis of Upheaval," along with Iran, the countries have deepened their cooperation during the war in Ukraine.
- North Korea sent troops, Iran provided drones, and China offered an economic and diplomatic lifeline.
It's the Russia-China nexus that particularly troubles Trump's advisers, some of whom have argued that by courting Putin rather than shunning him, they can perhaps peel Russia away from China. So far, that's wishful thinking.
- The giant neighbors have their differences. The yawning economic imbalance is uncomfortable for Moscow, while Russia's nuclear saber-rattling and growing influence in North Korea may be unsettling for Beijing.
But for now, they have much more pulling them together — not least their shared enmity toward the U.S.
🪖 State of play: The parade in Beijing this morning — to mark the 80th anniversary of Japan's surrender during World War II — was flush with VIPs and military hardware.
- "The Chinese nation is never intimidated by any bullies and always forges ahead," Xi declared, before newly revealed weaponry — a novel nuclear ICBM, a laser-powered interceptor, giant underwater drones — rolled through the streets.
Between the lines: While photos of Xi, Putin, Kim and 20-some other leaders assembled in Beijing will make front pages all over the world, another remarkable image from a day earlier will trouble U.S. policymakers just as much.
- Facing tariffs and insults from Trump, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi literally held hands with Xi and Putin during an economic summit in Tianjin.
- Successive U.S. administrations have based their Indo-Pacific strategies largely on partnering with India in competition with China.
But Xi is clearly trying to capitalize on this period of mutual hostility between the U.S. and India. It's time, he told Modi, "for the dragon and the elephant to come together."
2. 📉 U.S. population could fall for first time
President Trump's immigration crackdown — combined with plummeting birth rates and an aging population — could make 2025 the first year on record in which the U.S. population declines, journalist and "Abundance" co-author Derek Thompson writes on his Substack.
- Why it matters: A declining population would come with massive economic and political consequences.
The big picture: "According to our best estimates, the nation's population expanded throughout the Civil War, despite the deaths of more than 700,000 Americans," Thompson writes.
"It grew throughout the Spanish Flu, both World Wars, and countless bloody entanglements with other countries. Even COVID, which killed more than a million Americans, didn't reverse the trend. But Trump's immigration crackdown may accomplish what no war, plague, or calamity has ever done."
🔬 Zoom in: Labor shortages from fewer workers (immigrants are usually younger) can push up wages and cause inflation.
- Huge portions of America's economy — farming, housing, health care, hospitality — heavily rely on foreign-born workers.
- Fewer workers would mean a smaller tax base for schools and make it harder to pay for America's social safety net, including Social Security.
3. 💡 Coming this fall
4. 💼 Charted: Feds pack offices
The share of federal employees working in-office is up sharply from last year, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a new Gallup survey.
- Why it matters: President Trump's return-to-office order worked — and then some. Federal government workers are now twice as likely to work in-office as employees overall nationwide.
🖼️ The big picture: Trump's return-to-office order was an early part of the administration's effort to push federal workers to leave their jobs.
- Many have left rather than go back to an office they'd never visited or that was too far.
🧮 By the numbers: Gallup found the percentage of federal employees working in-office skyrocketed nearly 30 points in Q2 to 46%.
5. 🚀 Rocket City on steroids
6. 📸 Pic du jour
Fox News reporter Peter Doocy shows President Trump a video on his phone yesterday of a contractor throwing trash bags out of a White House window, after questioning Trump on social-media rumors that he was sick or dead.
- Go deeper: Read Zachary Basu's account.
7. 🇦🇷 Scoop: DHS snubs Argentina
The Department of Homeland Security blindsided Argentina last week by unexpectedly pausing a visa-waiver agreement as officials from Buenos Aires were already en route to Washington to sign the deal, Axios' Marc Caputo writes.
- Why it matters: The diplomatic snub was the result of a lack of communication and organization by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, two sources with knowledge of the situation tell Axios.
In July, Noem signed a statement of intent with Argentinian officials for the visa-waiver agreement. But Noem didn't first tell Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
- Rubio and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles then penned a memo reminding all officials that they needed prior authorization to execute such agreements.
🔭 Zoom in: The U.S. has grown closer to Argentina under that nation's new president, Javier Milei.
- Noem praised Milei in a press release in which she pledged to try to readmit his country's citizens to the Visa Waiver Program, which allows foreigners to visit the U.S. for 90 days without a visa.
- But Rubio's State Department has had concerns about a corruption scandal that's nagging at Milei's administration, and wanted to have more discussions with Argentina about that before striking a deal.
👀 The intrigue: No one from the U.S. government appears to have communicated those concerns to Argentina before a delegation left Buenos Aires for what it thought would be a signing ceremony.
8. 🎁 1 for the road: Ugly holiday outlook
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