America's biggest adversaries "conspire" in Beijing
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Putin, Xi and KIm (L-R) at the parade in Beijing. Photo: Sergey Bobylev/pool via Getty
The tectonic plates of global power are shifting ever faster thanks to President Trump, and images beamed from China around the world this week provide one vision of where they will settle.
The big picture: The leaders of China, Russia and North Korea strode out together overnight in Beijing to attend a massive military parade — and to send a message to Washington.
- For the first time ever, these three nuclear-armed strongmen — long resentful of America's alliances, sanctions and "rules-based order" — are gathering together in a show of solidarity.
- Trump was watching from afar, and offered a message to Xi Jinping: "Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un as you conspire against the United States of America."
Breaking it down: Dubbed the "Axis of Upheaval," along with Iran, the countries have deepened their cooperation during the war in Ukraine.
- North Korea sent troops, Iran provided drones, and China offered an economic and diplomatic lifeline.
Friction point: It's the Russia-China nexus that particularly troubles Trump's advisers.
- Some have argued that by courting Putin rather than shunning him, they can perhaps peel Russia away from China. So far, that's wishful thinking.
- The giant neighbors have their differences. The vast economic imbalance is uncomfortable for Moscow, while Russia's nuclear saber-rattling and growing influence in North Korea may be unsettling for Beijing.
- But for now they have much more pulling them together — not least their shared enmity toward the U.S.
Driving the news: The parade in Beijing on Wednesday morning to mark the 80th anniversary of Japan's surrender during World War II was flush with VIPs and military hardware.
- "The Chinese nation is never intimidated by any bullies and always forges ahead," Xi declared, before newly revealed weaponry — a novel nuclear ICBM, a laser-powered interceptor, giant underwater drones — rolled through the streets.
Between the lines: While photos of Xi, Putin, Kim and 20-some other leaders assembled in Beijing will make front pages all over the world, another remarkable image from a day earlier will trouble U.S. policymakers just as much.
- Facing tariffs and insults from Trump, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi literally held hands with Xi and Putin during an economic summit in Tianjin.
- Successive U.S. administrations have based their Indo-Pacific strategies largely on partnering with India in competition with China — a convergence aided by deadly China-India border clashes in Trump's first term.
- But Xi is clearly trying to capitalize on this period of mutual hostility between the U.S. and India. It's time, he told Modi, "for the dragon and the elephant to come together."
Reality check: The partnerships on display this week have their limits.
- No one in the "axis" lifted a finger when Israel and the U.S. rained bombs down on Iran, for example, and China is providing Russia with oil revenues, but not with arms.
- Nor will Trump's insults erase India's concerns about sharing a contested border with a major rival for regional influence.
Zoom out: The Biden administration saw U.S. rivals coalescing and held ever tighter to its allies, which together account for well over half of global GDP.
- Trump sees the U.S. as the biggest heavyweight in the ring as countries slug it out on their own.
- But his critics fear he's weakening the pro-U.S. coalition just as the anti-U.S. axis grows stronger.
