Axios AM

February 06, 2024
☕ Happy Tuesday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,392 words ... 5 mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for brilliantly orchestrating. Copy edited by Sheryl Miller.
🎸 Breaking: Toby Keith, the country singer famous for "Should've Been a Cowboy," died at 62 after battling stomach cancer. An appreciation.
🗳️ Situational awareness: Nikki Haley told The Wall Street Journal at a campaign event in Aiken, S.C., that she has applied for Secret Service protection because of increasing threats: "We've had multiple issues. ... It's not going to stop me."
📍 1 big thing — First on Axios: America's growth magnets
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
Austin, Raleigh and Boise were America's best-performing cities last year, Axios' Jennifer A. Kingson writes from an annual Milken Institute report.
- Why it matters: Those areas offer high wages, plentiful jobs, a (relatively) low cost of living and thriving tech sectors — making them economic models for the nation.
How it works: The Milken Institute, a nonpartisan nonprofit, assessed 403 U.S. metropolitan areas using 13 growth-focused economic metrics. New criteria this year: income inequality and "resilience," defined as a city's ability to withstand severe weather and economic turmoil.
- Austin/Round Rock, Texas, ranked first among large metropolitan areas because of its "rapid growth in jobs, wages, and high tech," bolstered by the presence of the University of Texas at Austin.
💪 Biggest gainers: The big metro areas that rose the most in this year's rankings were Philadelphia ... Elgin, Ill. ... Houston ... Richmond, Va. ... and Wichita, Kan.
📉 Biggest losers: Of the five cities that dropped most, four are in California — San Luis Obispo, Modesto, Merced and Oxnard. The other was Greensboro, N.C.
- Explore the data (interactive map) ... Share this story ... Get Axios Local (daily editions in lots of these cities).
2. 🏈 Swift effect: Women-focused Super Bowl ads
Illustration: Tiffany Herring/Axios
Beauty and health food brands are buying ad spots for the Super Bowl on Sunday, reflecting the NFL's growing popularity among women, Axios' Kelly Tyko and Sara Fischer write.
- Why it matters: Taylor Swift helped drive an unprecedented ratings bump for the NFL this season. Now consumer brands want a piece of the action.
💄 A wider and younger audience is attracting a slew of new brands to the big game.
- e.l.f. Cosmetics reunited the cast of Suits — the most streamed show last year — for its first national Super Bowl commercial.
- NYX Professional Makeup said its ad will "tackle the traditionally male-dominated football industry with Cardi B and powerful women at the forefront."
- Dove returns to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2006.
🥊 Reality check: Football fans should still expect plenty of junk food and beverage ads. Coors Light, Budweiser and Michelob Ultra are all back.
- YouTube: A snowy Super Bowl ad for Budweiser will bring back the Clydesdales and a Labrador retriever for an old-school delivery ... Share this story.
3. 🦾 Inside AI's "big" fight
Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios
A battle between two Silicon Valley sects — "big AI" and "small AI" — will shape the future of the tech that's likely to dominate business and society over the next decade, Axios managing editor Scott Rosenberg writes.
- Why it matters: A "big AI" win could lock in the power of today's tech giants for decades to come. A "small AI" victory could have more unpredictable and uncontrollable consequences.
Big AI means building ever-bigger digital brains, betting that if you just keep adding more synapse-like nodes, your model will keep getting better — and eventually, maybe, produce human-matching or -beating skills, known as artificial general intelligence.
- That's how ChatGPT got made and the generative AI wave that began in 2022 got started.
- OpenAI, allied with Microsoft, is big AI's standard-bearer. But every tech giant is in this fantastically expensive game.
The small AI approach predicts we'll get better, faster and more efficient results by deploying a wider range and number of AI models, fine-tuned for specific tasks or subject areas.
- Many small AI proponents believe big AI will hit a wall before achieving its goal of AGI.
- Small AI efforts are also much more likely to be made available via open-source licensing, which allows for broad distribution and wider research.
- Meta has been the highest-profile promoter of smaller and freely distributed models.
👀 What we're watching: The outcome of this conflict will depend as much on regulation from Washington as on what comes out of the industry's labs.
- A looser regulatory environment would make it easier for small AI to flourish. Tighter rules and restraints from D.C. are more likely to benefit big AI since only the largest firms would have the resources to run the bureaucratic gauntlet.
4. 📷 1,000 words

Above: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — a long way from the presidential trail — speaks yesterday at a Miami Beach press conference. He backed legislation to battle homelessness by banning camping on city streets and parks.
5. ⛈️ L.A.'s monster deluge


A dangerous, deadly storm is pummeling the areas around L.A., dropping months' worth of rainfall in just two to three days, Axios extreme weather expert Andrew Freedman writes.
- Why it matters: When it's over, the storm is likely to rank among the most intense to hit the state in years.
Record-setting rains across the state have caused at least three deaths — all by falling trees in Northern California — and prompted evacuations, water rescues and disrupted travel.

L.A. officials reported more than 120 mudslides. Above, an SUV was buried by a mudslide yesterday in the Beverly Crest area of L.A.
Crucial context: Signs point to a climate change-related event. A warming environment is making extreme precipitation events more common and intense.
6. 🏛️ GOP spirals over border bill

The Senate border deal — pretty much dead thanks to former President Trump — has gone over so poorly among Republicans that the GOP's lead negotiator is open to voting "no" on the first vote for his own bill.
- Why it matters: Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) and other Senate Republicans say they need more time and a chance to change parts of the $118 billion package, Axios' Stef W. Kight writes.
Between the lines: Time is running out. Recess is planned for the two weeks after this. A government shutdown deadline is approaching (early March). And House Republicans are ready for a vote to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas as soon as today.
- Any significant changes to the bill — which also includes Ukraine aid — risk losing Democratic support.
- Speaker Mike Johnson insists the bill would be dead on arrival in the House.
Trump and allies have quickly turned Lankford into a MAGA boogeyman, unleashing increasingly personal attacks on him and Republican leadership.
- Trump falsely denied endorsing Lankford in 2022. At the time, the GOP front-runner called him "Strong on the Border."
7. 📢 Iconic: Remembering a 9/11 hero

Bob Beckwith — the retired firefighter who stood shoulder-to-shoulder with President George W. Bush in the rubble of Ground Zero three days after 9/11 — died at 91 on Long Island.
- Why he mattered: With the nation on edge, Beckwith immediately became a symbol of New York grit and American resolve.
Bush joined the Long Islander atop the overturned remains of a firetruck, where he draped one arm around Beckwith and spoke to the crowd through a bullhorn.
- "We can't hear you," a person in the crowd shouted.
- Changing his speech on the fly, Bush said: "I can hear you, the rest of the world hears you, and the people who knocked down these buildings will hear all of us soon."
Between the lines: Beckwith had been retired for seven years when he decided to head to Ground Zero and help with the recovery effort.
- "When the terrorists attacked, Bob suited back up and, like so many brave first responders, raced toward the danger to save and search for others," Bush said in a statement. "I was proud to have Bob by my side at Ground Zero days later and privileged to stay in touch with this patriot over the years."
8. 🎤 1 for the road: Grammy ratings boost

Nearly 17 million people tuned into the Grammys on Sunday — up 34% from the 12.4 million who watched last year, Axios' Sara Fischer writes.
- Why it matters: Awards show ratings have begun to rebound from pandemic lows.
Last night's show — boosted by several viral moments — was the most-watched edition since 2020.
- Taylor Swift's surprise new album release tease, combined with several new award show firsts, made for a buzzy event.
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