Axios AM

July 08, 2025
โ๏ธ Hello, Tuesday! Smart Brevityโข count: 1,907 words ... 7 mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Copy edited by Bryan McBournie.
๐ค Situational awareness: The IRS said in a court filing yesterday that churches and other houses of worship can endorse political candidates from the pulpit, "carving out an exemption in a decades-old ban on political activity by tax-exempt nonprofits," the N.Y. Times' David Fahrenthold reports (gift link).
- Ellen Aprill, a professor emeritus at Loyola Law School in LA, told The Times that the IRS decision will set off debates about its limits, including such questions as: What if a church posts endorsements online?
1 big thing: Middle managers fade as AI rises


This chart may explain why your boss is taking longer to get back to you lately: They've got more underlings to watch over, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a new analysis.
- Why it matters: Middle managers โ i.e., bosses who have bosses โ were already quietly going extinct, and now AI may be hastening the process.
By the numbers: People managers now oversee about twice as many workers as just five years ago.
- There are now nearly six individual contributors per manager at the 8,500 small businesses analyzed in a report by Gusto, which handles payroll for small and medium-sized employers.
- That's up from a little over three in 2019.
๐จ The big picture: Big Tech has been shedding middle managers for the past few years, a process that's been dubbed the Great Flattening.
- Reducing management layers is one of Microsoft's stated goals in laying off thousands of workers this year as it ramps up its AI strategy.
- Amazon CEO Andy Jassy last year announced an effort to reduce managers (memo).
- Share this story.
๐ฆพ Another win for Meta's AI moonshot: Apple's top executive in charge of AI models โ distinguished engineer Ruoming Pang โ is leaving for Meta, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reports.
2. ๐ Trump's Ukraine missile plans
President Trump's decision to send defensive weapons to Ukraine last night followed days of talks with aides and other world leaders about where those arms would actually come from, Axios' Marc Caputo and Barak Ravid write.
- Why it matters: The Trump administration had paused shipments of some arms to Ukraine, including Patriot missile interceptors.
Now the desperately needed weapons are on the way. But Trump is also seeking alternative solutions, including pressing Germany to send its own Patriot battery.
- "We are going to have to send more weapons to Ukraine. Defensive weapons, they have to defend themselves," Trump told reporters yesterday.
- "At President Trump's direction, the Department of Defense will send additional defensive weapons to Ukraine to ensure the Ukrainians can defend themselves while we work to secure a lasting peace," the Pentagon said later last night.
๐ผ๏ธ The big picture: Trump and his team are reluctant to part with many Patriot interceptors. He wants the Europeans to send more of their own money and materiel as well.
- With stocks dwindling amid multiple ongoing wars, there's increasing concern among NATO countries about giving up munitions โ particularly interceptors โ more quickly than they can be produced.
- "Getting a Patriot missile isn't like going to Walmart and picking 10 off the shelf and going home," one Trump adviser told Axios.
Behind the scenes: Trump's change of heart started to become clearer on Friday when he spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in what both sides said was their best phone call since Trump assumed office.
- Trump told Zelensky he wants to help Ukraine's air defenses but stressed that the U.S. had to pause the latest weapons shipment to review its own stockpiles, according to two sources briefed on the call.
- Two sources said Trump promised to immediately send 10 Patriot interceptors โ fewer than had been planned in the paused shipment โ and help to find other means of supply.
3. Behind the scenes: Angling to help Musk party

Elon Musk is fielding offers for help on his new political party from Andrew Yang's Forward Party, the Libertarian Party and several consultants, Axios' Brittany Gibson has learned.
- Why it matters: Musk has said he wants his America Party to be a political disruptor in the 2026 midterms โ a likely outlet for the billionaire's push to cut the nation's runaway debt and boost sustainable energy.
"I'm in touch with Elon and his team, and I've said to them: 'Look, anyone who wants to challenge the duopoly has a friend in me,'" Yang said in an interview with Axios.
- Yang said he might help Musk recruit candidates in the House districts where Musk is looking to challenge incumbents.

No Labels, an organization that considered trying to run an independent presidential candidate in 2024, is also intrigued by Musk's interest in creating a new governing coalition in Congress, according to a representative from the group.
- The Libertarian Party is lobbying Musk where he lives โ on X โ urging him to join Libertarians over a shared interest of fiscal responsibility and concern about the deficit.
๐ Between the lines: Being the world's richest person will help Musk โ where there's money, there are consultants and advisers.
- "I guarantee you every grifter in the petitioning world is already trying to get their claws into Musk," a third-party ballot access consultant told Axios.
- Musk, the consultant added, needs "the pros, not the bros."
Share this story ... Hans Nichols and Alex Isenstadt contributed reporting.
- Go deeper: Elon Musk's empire at risk as Trump fallout deepens.
4. ๐ฐ Quote du jour

President Trump, taking questions before a dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said his new Aug. 1 deadline on tariffs is "firm but not 100% firm."
- "If they call up and say we'd like to do something a different way, we're going to be open to that."
Trump sent letters to 14 countries imposing tariffs that would go into effect on Aug. 1, and posted copies of them on Truth Social.
5. Shortfalls in Texas' flood management

While Texas state leaders have prioritized spending on border security and property tax cuts, they have been far more reluctant to fund flood management efforts, Axios Austin's Nicole Cobler writes.
- Why it matters: Texas leads the nation by a wide margin in flood deaths.
The latest: Weekend floods in Central Texas have claimed over 100 lives, with dozens of people still missing.
- Camp Mystic, a private Christian camp for girls, confirmed that 27 campers and counselors had died following the flooding.
More than 1,000 people died in Texas floods from 1959 to 2019, according to an academic analysis, most having occurred in the Hill Country.
- Local officials in areas like Kerr County โย where the worst of last weekend's flooding took place โ have struggled to secure funding for basic warning systems and have instead relied on National Weather Service text alerts and word-of-mouth to alert residents rather than costly outdoor siren systems.
Between the lines: Despite Texas' vulnerability, the state didn't complete a comprehensive statewide assessment of flood risk and solutions until last year.
- Keep reading ... Get Axios Local: Newsletters in 34 cities, including four in Texas.
6. ๐ Scoop: Senate GOP super PAC's fundraising record

The Senate GOP's top super PAC and affiliates have more than doubled their fundraising record for the first half of an off-year โ bringing in $85 million, Axios' Stef W. Kight reports.
Why it matters: Senate Leadership Fund is a campaign powerhouse for the GOP. But its new leaders want to shake things up after a decade of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and his allies at the helm.
- This is the group's first fundraising release since Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) took over as Senate GOP leader.
Zoom in: President Trump is more involved than ever, SLF executive director Alex Latcham told Axios in an interview.
- "We're working with [the White House] to identify and vet Senate candidates," Latcham said, describing it as an asset "as we navigate some of these primaries."
- Discussions with the White House about 2026 come at a "regular cadence, whether it's in person, over the phone."
๐งฎ By the numbers: SLF and its affiliated group One Nation have raised over $85 million since the start of the year โ far more than the $38 million raised over the same period in 2023, the group told Axios.
- Share this story ... Get Axios Hill Leaders, our nightly newsletter from the Capitol.
7. ๐ Out today: Behind the scenes of '24
When Vice President Harris reached President Trump to concede the day after the election, her aides had trouble merging her into the call, political reporters Josh Dawsey, Tyler Pager and Isaac Arnsdorf write in their new book "2024," out today, which draws on 350+ post-election interviews.
- "Phone service isn't what it used to be," Trump quipped.
- "Aides ended up holding two phones together on speaker so that the rivals could talk," the authors write. Trump told her: "You're a tough cookie."
Why it matters: "2024" is written by three top reporters who covered the campaign together at The Washington Post. Dawsey is now at The Wall Street Journal and Pager is now at The New York Times.
Trump "complimented her husband," Douglas Emhoff, the book says in its account of the concession call. Trump "did not compliment her campaign, but he acknowledged she'd given him a run for his money":
"Even her aides described him as gracious. Harris was professional but not warm. She had considered alluding to his failure to concede when things turned out the other way, but in the end she just said the country was too divided, and she hoped he would be a president for all Americans. Biden called to congratulate Trump and invite him to visit the White House โ the same customary courtesy that Trump had refused him four years earlier. Now Trump accepted amicably."
- "In another life," Trump told Biden, "we would be friends and go golfing."
๐ฑ How it's going: Tyler Pager got hold of Biden's cellphone number and reached him on March 25, when he'd been out of office just over two months. Trump answers random incoming calls from reporters. It worked with Biden this one time.
- "Biden said he would be willing to speak for this book the next day," the authors write. "The next morning, he answered and said he was running late to catch a train. He said he had a 'very negative' view of Trump's second term ... 'I don't see anything he's done that's been productive,' he said. Asked if he had any regrets about dropping out of the presidential race, he said, 'No, not now. I don't spend a lot of time on regrets.' He quickly hung up to get on the train."
- "After the first call," the book continues, furious Biden aides "repeatedly called and texted [Pager]. After the brief second call, his aides blocked the reporter's calls to the former president. Two days later, a message from Verizon Wireless replaced Biden's voicemail: 'The number you dialed has been changed, disconnected, or is no longer in service.'"
โณ Nugget to go: At former President Carter's funeral shortly before Trump's inauguration, he "sat next to Barack Obama and invited him to play golf, enticing him with descriptions of Trump's courses around the world."
8. โ๏ธ 1 for the road: Shoes stay on

The TSA is introducing new procedures that let travelers keep their shoes on at airport security, The Wall Street Journal reports.
- Why it matters: The unpopular rule has been in place since 2006, five years after an al-Qaeda operative unsuccessfully attempted to detonate a bomb planted in his shoes on a transatlantic flight.
The change hasn't been formally announced but already appears to be in place at airports across the country, the N.Y. Times notes.
- Go deeper (WSJ gift link).
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