The U.S. has never been closer to armed conflict with Venezuela, with a fully loaded U.S. flotilla sitting off its coast and dictator Nicolás Maduro living under a $50 million bounty.

• The intrigue: Even close Trump advisers aren't entirely sure whether the gunboat diplomacy is a drug trafficking operation with undertones of regime change, or a Caracas coup operation masquerading as drug enforcement, Axios' Marc Caputo reports.

🔎 Zoom in: President Trump ordered seven warships carrying 4,500 personnel — including three guided-missile destroyers and at least one attack submarine — to the waters off Venezuela.

• Officially, they're there to combat drug trafficking. But White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt leaned into the mission's ambiguity yesterday, noting that the U.S. considers Maduro the "fugitive head of [a] drug cartel" — not Venezuela's legitimate president.

"This is 105% about narco-terrorism, but if Maduro winds up no longer in power, no one will be crying," said a Trump administration official familiar with the policy discussions.

• Another administration official had a different view. "This could be Noriega part 2," the official said, referring to the U.S. military's 1989 operation to capture Panamanian President Manuel Noriega, who — like Maduro — faced U.S. drug-trafficking charges. "The president has asked for a menu of options. And ultimately, this is the president's decision about what to do next. But Maduro should be s***ting bricks."
• A third Trump adviser put it this way: "Leaving Maduro in power in Venezuela is like making Jeffrey Epstein the head of a day care."

👀 State of play: While administration officials have refused to rule out an invasion, nearly all privately believe it unlikely.

• However, Trump's deployment does include 2,200 Marines, the boots-on-the-beach branch of the military. That's hardly typical in drug enforcement.

Flashback: Maduro was first indicted during Trump's first term as leader of a drug gang called Cartel de los Soles, which Treasury designated a foreign terror group last month. A superseding indictment could drop soon.

• The other side: "What they're threatening to do against Venezuela — regime change, a military terrorist attack — is immoral, criminal and illegal," Maduro said last week, calling on citizens to join a militia to fight off an anticipated U.S. invasion.

🛢️ Between the lines: Oil is the other major factor in U.S. relations with Venezuela, which has the world's largest proven reserves.

• Trump made early entreaties to Maduro with oil in mind, via special envoy Ric Grenell. But he also appointed an anti-Maduro hardliner, Marco Rubio, as secretary of state and national security adviser.

Keep reading.

Americans are paying more to keep lights on and air conditioners running as a perfect storm of aging equipment and AI demand slams the nation's grid, Axios' Ben Geman reports.

• Prices are up and projected to keep rising in 2026. The nationwide average retail residential price for electricity is about 7% higher than this time last year, and 32% higher than it was five years ago, according to Energy Department data.

Zoom in: The surge is driven by infrastructure problems, public policy and, increasingly, massive new AI data centers.

1. ⚡ Outdated power grid. "It's like a two-way highway that was built decades ago that's now expected to carry rush-hour traffic to and from a major city every [day]," Sen. Mike Lee, chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said at a July hearing.
2. 🤖 Data center demand. Analysts point to power-hungry AI data centers as a driver of rising rates, especially in data center hot spots. Data centers consumed about 4% of the nation's total electricity in 2023. The Energy Department estimates it could increase to 12% by 2028.
3. 🏛️ Red tape. Energy projects regularly face bureaucratic delays and denials. Many in Congress and the Trump administration seek to overhaul permitting to speed up projects, though they disagree about how much priority fossil-fuel projects should get.
4. 🌀 Mother Nature. Hurricanes, wildfires, high winds and other weather-related threats have spurred a need for investing in stronger — but costly — towers, poles and other equipment.

Between the lines: All of this is happening while Trump is tamping down on renewable energy, a major potential source of electricity.

• U.S. investment in renewables plunged by about 36% in the first half of 2025 — roughly $20.5 billion — as uncertainty over federal support chills the market.

Read on.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could emerge in an even stronger position after the fallout at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

• The upheaval following CDC Director Susan Monarez's firing will make it difficult for any administration nominee who's willing to sign off on Kennedy's vaccine policy change to win Senate confirmation, Axios' Maya Goldman reports.

Without a permanent director, Kennedy could end up with more influence.

• He and handpicked lieutenants could step into the power vacuum — and put the CDC's stamp on his agenda.

👀 The latest: Three CDC officials who resigned Wednesday were escorted out of the Atlanta headquarters by security yesterday, per the New York Times. And there was a staff walkout.

What's next: President Trump named Jim O'Neill, deputy secretary of HHS, as acting CDC director. He can lead CDC for up to 210 days, but that term could be extended if the White House nominates someone whom the Senate rejects.

• The Senate confirmed O'Neill as Kennedy's No. 2 in June. A biotech investor with close ties to billionaire Peter Thiel, he criticized the CDC during COVID but told lawmakers in May he was "strongly pro-vaccine."

Read on ... Rebecca Falconer contributed reporting.

Fletcher Merkel, 8, and Harper Moyski, 10, were killed when a shooter opened fire at Annunciation Catholic School Wednesday morning.

• Yesterday, their families spoke, Axios' Twin Cities' Torey Van Oot writes.

"Fletcher loved his family, friends, fishing, cooking and any sport that he was allowed to play," said Jesse Merkel, Fletcher's dad. "Please remember Fletcher for the person he was, and not the act that ended his life. Give your kids an extra hug and kiss today."

Michael Moyski and Jackie Flavin remembered their daughter Harper as "a bright, joyful, and deeply loved 10-year-old whose laughter, kindness, and spirit touched everyone who knew her."

• "Our hearts are broken not only as parents, but also for Harper's sister, who adored her big sister and is grieving an unimaginable loss."

• Share this story.

The meeting President Trump convened on Wednesday to discuss a postwar plan for Gaza involved two high-profile invited guests, Jared Kushner and Tony Blair, and an unexpected third one: Israeli official Ron Dermer.

• The takeaway: Dermer told the senior officials that Israel doesn't want to expel the Palestinian population and occupy Gaza for good, but needs an acceptable alternative to Hamas to govern the enclave. Kushner and Blair got Trump's blessing to keep developing such a plan. But right now, they don't have an answer for who would take over, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

What to watch: A "day-after" plan for Gaza will be a key component of any diplomatic initiative to end a war that has killed more than 62,000 Palestinians over two years.

• But rebuilding an enclave that's utterly destroyed, and designing a political and security architecture that all sides can live with, will be extremely difficult.

Keep reading.

Tariffs on small packages from around the world went into effect early this morning, with the end of the "de minimis" exemption on postal shipments to the U.S. worth less than $800.

• Why it matters: Dozens of national postal services have stopped shipping to the U.S. altogether, because they say the government's new trade regime is simply too hard to decipher. Even once that's all worked out, consumers could soon find themselves on the hook for billions of dollars in new fees, Axios managing editor for business Ben Berkowitz writes.

🔎 How it works: From the Latin for a thing of "little importance," the de minimis exemption has historically meant that low-value shipments to the U.S. from other countries didn't face tariffs.

• The administration believes closing the loophole will generate $10 billion in tariff revenue a year.

Keep reading.

Mike writes: I was a cub reporter in Fredericksburg, Va., when famed writing coach Roy Peter Clark taught me during a Poynter Institute training session that writing ... is different from typing.

• One of Clark's storytelling secrets: "Get the name of the dog." It's a proxy for: Ask that extra question, make one more call, get the nitty-gritty. Then use those vivid findings to bring your important tale alive for the reader.

The Poynter Institute, which has helped generations of journalists hone their craft, is celebrating 50 years. And in today's noisy, chaotic information environment, that mission is more urgent than ever.

• On Friday, Sept. 19, Jessica Yellin — founder of News Not Noise, and former White House correspondent — and I will lead a salon conversation covering news entrepreneurship, audience engagement and the future of political journalism.
• Festivities start at 6:30 p.m. at Sequoia on the Georgetown waterfront. Only 50 seats available!

This benefit supports Poynter's mission of strengthening journalism in the service of democracy — laying groundwork for a future where truth and credible reporting remain accessible to all.

• So please save your seat ... Or learn more.

An adorable interspecies bond is capturing hearts at the Denver Zoo.

• A 16-year-old howler monkey named Baya and a 6-year-old capybara named Rebecca have become besties inside the zoo's Tropical Discovery exhibit, Axios Denver's Alayna Alvarez writes.

You wouldn't catch this duo hanging out in the wild. Capybaras roam grasslands while howlers stick to the trees.

• But in zoos, they're often paired together due to their similar native habitats and friendly dispositions.

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