President Trump was fed up with the "no deal, no war" stalemate in Iran. The operation he ordered yesterday to change that dynamic could ultimately lead back to war, Axios' Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo write.

• "The president wants action. He doesn't want to sit still. He wants pressure. He wants a deal," a senior U.S. official told Axios.

The intrigue: Trump was presented with a plan on Thursday night to send naval vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to open it by force. At the last minute, he opted for a more cautious approach, at least initially.

• Starting today, as part of what Trump yesterday dubbed Project Freedom, the U.S. Navy will help U.S.-flagged and other commercial ships cross the strait by advising them on how to avoid mines and standing ready to intervene if Iran attacks.

U.S. officials say there's no current plan for full-fledged naval escorts. Instead, Navy ships will be "in the vicinity" and at the ready, alongside U.S. military aircraft.

• U.S. military support will include guided-missile destroyers, drones, over 100 land- and sea-based aircraft, and 15,000 troops, CENTCOM said.

Between the lines: A source close to the president described this as the "beginning of a process that could lead to a confrontation with the Iranians."

• The "humanitarian" mission to free ships stranded in the strait means "if the Iranians do something, they will be the bad guys and we will have the legitimacy to act," the source contended.

Behind the scenes: CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper presented Trump on Thursday with a more ambitious plan to send Navy ships through the strait.

• A U.S. official with knowledge of that plan said the U.S. would have taken out any missiles or fast boats the Iranians launched in response, and resumed the war with full force if Iran escalated by attacking Gulf countries.
• The current version carries less risk of immediate escalation but could also prolong the stalemate.

The big picture: The diplomacy isn't entirely frozen. Trump's envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are still exchanging drafts with Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi.

• A senior U.S. official said: "It's either we're looking at the real contours of an achievable deal soon, or he's going to bomb the hell out of them."

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A fully closed Strait of Hormuz was long seen as unthinkable — and unmanageable if it happened — based on past modeling and interviews with energy experts, Axios energy expert Amy Harder writes.

• Why it matters: The conventional wisdom underscores how unprecedented today's closure is and how little planning exists for what could come next.

In at least two major exercises assessing potential oil disruptions — one in 2007 and another in 2022 — energy experts considered a full shutdown of the strait but ultimately didn't model it.

• "The idea was laughed out of the room," said Sam Ori, who worked on the 2007 exercise at the nonprofit Securing America's Energy Future. "The view was that it just wasn't credible and would be seen as alarmist."

Keep reading ... Get Axios Future of Energy.

Yann LeCun, former Meta AI chief and a scientist in the field for 40 years, has a message for those alarmed by AI doomerism: The panic is overblown.

• Why it matters: LeCun tells Axios' Madison Mills that the real danger of AI is making life-altering decisions based on exaggerated claims about the technology's future.

📝 Advice from LeCun, executive chairman of AMI Labs:

1. Ignore hype. CEOs of the frontier labs keep saying each model is more powerful and potentially world-ending than the last.
2. Go to college. LeCun argues AI will increase demand for more educated, critical thinkers. He recommends majoring in physics or electrical engineering.
3. Jobs won't disappear. LeCun says some roles will disappear, but new ones will emerge, as they have in past tech shifts.

Full interview.

Two angles on President Trump's return to the White House from Miami last night:

• Left: The traditional wire photo captures White House communications aide Margo Martin filming on her iPhone from the doorway of Marine One.
• Right: The same moment from the other side, posted on the administration's social channels. Watch the video.

President Trump watches Scottie Scheffler finish his final round at yesterday's PGA Tour's Cadillac Championship on the iconic Blue Monster course at Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami.

• Also spotted: Steve Witkoff, Eric Trump, Don Jr. and FIFA president Gianni Infantino.

Former President Obama — looking forward to the grand opening of the 19-acre Obama Presidential Center in Chicago's Jackson Park, 45 days from now — tells The New Yorker's Peter Slevin that it would diminish his impact if he spoke out more often against President Trump:

"For me to function like Jon Stewart, even once a week, just going off, just ripping what was happening — which, by the way, I'm glad Jon's doing it — then I'm not a political leader, I'm a commentator … The media environment is so difficult that people don't even know all the stuff I am doing, right? … And, I think, when they do see me, then the sense is, 'Well, why isn't he doing that every day instead of just during a midterm election, or during a referendum campaign around gerrymandering, or what have you?'"

Obama said the demands of his schedule are of great concern to former first lady Michelle Obama, who remains popular and one of the bestselling authors ever: "She wants to see her husband easing up and spending more time with her, enjoying what remains of our lives."

• "The fact that people want me to be 'doing more' is a good sign," Obama continued, saying it indicates that "there has not been as decided a shift in American attitudes as we are making out. And that's part of the reason people are frustrated. Sometimes it's directed toward me, which is fine because they kind of sense: 'Wait, how can we be doing this when I know that's not who we were? And I don't think it's really who we are now.'"

Slevin asked Obama, who polls as the most popular living U.S. president, whether he considers what else he could do. "I think about it every day," he replied.

• "I strongly believe," Obama said at another point, "that my highest and best use now is to help find the next set of leaders who are going to move us forward."

Keep reading: The New Yorker's "Out of Office."

• Go deeper: The Obama Presidential Center opens to the public on Juneteenth — June 19, the day after the official unveiling. Tickets go on sale this Wednesday.

Axios' Nathan Bomey, who closely tracks the prediction market and gambling industry, writes:

Kalshi is adding new tools to prevent minors from trading on its prediction market but is resisting calls to block users aged 18-20.

• Why it matters: Prediction markets are surging in popularity as a way to risk money on sports, politics and news. They're also facing mounting political scrutiny over their contribution to America's gambling culture.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour tells Axios that while kids are already banned from trading on the platform, the company is taking several additional steps to prevent them from doing so, including:

• Requiring all users to use facial recognition technology when opening the app, making it more difficult for kids to use family accounts to log in.
• Requesting selfies of certain users deemed to be at higher risk of problematic trading.

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The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences — the group behind the Academy Awards — updated its rules last week to specify that "AI is not welcome at the Oscars," The Hollywood Reporter writes.

• To be eligible, acting performances must be "demonstrably performed by humans with their consent," and "screenplays must be human-authored."

More on the rule changes.

Saturday's Kentucky Derby averaged 19.6 million viewers on NBC and Peacock — making it the most-watched Run for the Roses in 36 years, according to preliminary Nielsen data.

• It was NBC's highest-rated Kentucky Derby since the network started airing the race in 2001. This year's audience rose 11% over last year.
• The streaming audience on Peacock averaged 1.3 million viewers — up 36% from last year and nearly twice that of 2024.

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