Polls paint a deepening hole for GOP candidates across the map. But while Democrats see a blue wave coming, some Republicans see a polling mirage.

• Why it matters: Pollsters worry they're flying partly blind. Even a modest polling error could mean the difference between Republicans retaining control of Congress and President Trump facing Democratic majorities in both chambers, Axios' Erica Pandey, Russell Contreras and Marc Caputo report.

The big picture: Polling Trump voters has long been notoriously difficult. The polls underestimated Trump's support in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

• Midterm polling has been more accurate, though some still underestimated Republican support in 2022, notes Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center.

🏛️ Catch up quick: With less than a month until the midterms, the polls spell a bleak picture for Republicans.

• The House: Democrats lead Republicans 49.8%-41.9% in the RealClearPolling generic congressional ballot average. The Cook Political Report projects Democrats will gain nine to 19 seats, enough to win a narrow majority.
• The Senate: Cook now sees a potential Democratic net gain of two to six seats. Democrats need four to take control, and Cook just moved the Kansas Senate race into its toss-up column.
• Trump: The president's approval rating stands at 37.6% in Cook's polling tracker. A recent Economist/YouGov poll found 35% approving and 60% disapproving of his performance.

📊 State of play: Research suggests Republicans have become somewhat less likely than Democrats to participate in telephone surveys, and response rates overall have plummeted since the late 1990s, per Pew.

• "We definitely have more people answering surveys who voted for [former Vice President Kamala] Harris than who voted for President Trump," says Brent Buchanan, a Republican pollster and founder of Cygnal. "But if you're a good pollster, you still get the other people."
• Pollsters can compensate by giving greater weight to Trump voters or adjusting samples to better reflect the Republican electorate, which skews male, white and working class.

🔎 But that has risks: "The adjustment assumes that the Republicans who respond to a poll are similar to the Republicans who don't respond to the poll," Rice University political science assistant professor Matthew Tyler tells Axios.

• Tyler said weighting GOP respondents more heavily can backfire if those willing to answer polls are also more willing to vote Democratic than the Republicans who never respond. That could inflate the apparent size of a Democratic wave.

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Trump administration officials say they are now mandating that AI companies notify and correct security incidents following Anthropic's "fraudulent" use of government systems, Axios' Maria Curi, Marc Caputo and Ina Fried report.

• Why it matters: The administration's approach to AI regulation had been voluntary, at least in name. But as AI incidents stack up, Washington is feeling the pressure to act.

🚨 "This notification and remediation process is not optional," White House Super Intelligence Force leaders said in a statement shared exclusively with Axios.

• "It is a critical national security obligation."

Driving the news: Anthropic contacted the government to share details of incidents discovered late last month regarding the "unauthorized and fraudulent use of government and other systems," which have since then ceased, the government says.

• Anthropic contacted the State Department on Thursday to report that one of its testing models had submitted 19 non-immigrant visa applications in August and one application in May through the publicly available form on the department's website, a State Department official said.
• None of the applications were processed and at no time were any of the department's systems compromised or hacked, according to the official.
• Separately, police officials in Philadelphia say they received a false homicide tip that was submitted by an Anthropic model.

⚡ State of play: The White House requirements apply to all AI companies.

• "SI companies must immediately disclose incidents involving their models and follow with swift, decisive action to remedy any and all harm," the SI Force statement said. "We also expect these companies to work with the affected systems to ensure that similar incidents do not occur."

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President Trump announced yesterday that he's reached a deal with Russia to increase the supply of diesel to the U.S. and global markets.

• The announcement came as U.S. diesel prices hovered near record highs and Ukrainian and European diplomats arrived in Miami for talks on ending the war with Russia.

📞 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios' Barak Ravid in a phone interview yesterday that Trump's decision to unilaterally lift sanctions on Russia and allow it to export diesel was "not fair and not honest."

• Trump's announcement, which came after a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, shocked Ukraine and many European governments and created a new crisis between the U.S. and its Western allies.
• "You know, it looks like a happy birthday present for Putin. It looks absolutely terrible," Zelensky said in frustration, referring to the Russian president's birthday earlier this week.

The other side: Trump decided to strike a deal with Russia after Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, a U.S. official with direct knowledge told Axios.

• "Zelensky is misreading the room. By continuing to hit refineries, he is eroding the goodwill that he has built with Trump over the last six months," the U.S. official said.

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Soaring jet fuel prices — driven up by the Iran war — have been pushing airfares higher and prompting airlines to cut flights, Axios' Pete Gannon reports.

• Case in point: Delta Air Lines said yesterday its fuel bill will be $6 billion higher this year, a 60% jump from last year.

Zoom out: U.S. airfares were up 23.4% in August from a year earlier, according to the latest federal inflation data, with airlines passing rising fuel costs along to travelers.

• Travelers are also seeing fewer flight options, as carriers have cut unprofitable flights.

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Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's announcement that the Fort Hood shooter's execution will be livestreamed reflects a shift toward putting raw, real-world violence on display for unlimited audiences, Axios' Neal Rothschild and Herb Scribner write.

• Why it matters: The Trump administration has made a show of flexing American power, sometimes with grisly footage. Now, it's preparing to make the government's ultimate punishment available for all to see.

The big picture: Americans are increasingly encountering shocking images on their phones, often without warning. Graphic footage of Charlie Kirk's assassination spread instantly to social media users, including young ones.

• Since Oct. 7, 2023, footage from the Hamas attacks and Israel's military campaign in Gaza has circulated online. Some videos have spread from Telegram to social platforms like X, where clips are easy to find.
• Footage of the August 2025 killing of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska on a Charlotte train went viral across X, stirring debate about crime and public safety. President Trump later said he had watched the video and wished he hadn't.

A livestream of Nidal Hasan's execution would be the first known public broadcast of a lawful execution, according to death penalty experts interviewed by Reuters.

• Public executions are increasingly rare worldwide. In recent years, most have taken place in Iran and Taliban-run Afghanistan, according to Amnesty International.

Trump told reporters he had approved the decision to livestream the execution.

• But Vice President Vance told reporters yesterday: "I don't know that that's actually going to happen ... So whatever the controversy is about the method of the execution, I hope that people don't forget that this is a guy who brutally murdered a lot of innocent people ... Now, that said, I mean, look, if it's ultimately livestreamed, I'm not going to be watching it."

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Katie Zacharia, a Californian and former Department of Homeland Security spokesperson, will be the next White House press secretary, President Trump announced on Truth Social:

• "She has an unblemished record of support, and has been a loyal and brilliant supporter, right from the beginning. She is, likewise, a devoted fan and member of MAGA!"

Zacharia will take over for Karoline Leavitt, who announced her departure from the administration in August, Axios' Josephine Walker writes.

• Zacharia wrote on X: "I look forward to working with the White House press corps, and with reporters across the country, to get [the administration's] record out. Following the fabulous Karoline Leavitt is a high standard, and one worth meeting."

Catch up quick: Zacharia is a conservative lawyer and commentator who works as a senior communications adviser at Trump Media & Technology Group, which operates Truth Social.

• She also served for about six weeks as the Department of Homeland Security's deputy assistant secretary for public affairs and spokesperson. She holds both a law degree and a bachelor's degree from Pepperdine University, where she currently serves on the school's Dean's Council.
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At 2:22 a.m. ET today, Zacharia, emulating Trump's nocturnal posting proclivity, popped up this excerpt from former President Teddy Roosevelt's iconic 1910 speech, "The Man in the Arena." She reupped it on X at 4:58 a.m.

Mike Ditka, who died yesterday at 86, was "Iron Mike" as a player who revolutionized the tight end position. He became easily recognizable, and often imitated, as the bellowing, mustachioed, sweater-vest-wearing "Da Coach" of the Chicago Bears during a Super Bowl-winning tenure.

• Former President Obama wrote on X: "When I got to Chicago in the summer of 1985, Mike Ditka and the Chicago Bears were king. Coach Ditka set the tone for a team that was punishing, dominant, and fun — and the city loved him for it. I'm thinking of the Ditka family and Bears fans everywhere on the passing of a legend."

NYT obit (gift link).

Many Michelin-starred chefs across the U.S. share a favorite spot to grab a bite after their shifts: Taco Bell.

• Harold Moore, chef at Cafe Commerce, a chic French-American bistro in Manhattan, particularly loves the Crunchy Supreme taco, he told The Wall Street Journal for an A-hed on today's front page (gift link).
• "There is everything in the perfect bite. ... It's hot, it's cold, it's crispy, it's also supple. There's spice, but then it has sour cream that calms it. It's a very complete experience."

🗞️ The Journal's print headline: "Top Chefs Have a Confession: They Love Taco Bell ... The chain may be a polarizing brand, but these chefs love the 'Live Más' lifestyle."

Dung Vo, a chef and co-founder of Noko Hospitality in Nashville, told WSJ: "A lot of people think that chefs need a really home-cooked meal, fancy food or something that's intricate in their off time, but the answer is 'not really.'"

• Vo's order: A chicken quesadilla, bulked up with ground beef and steak.