Axios AM

July 24, 2025
๐ Happy Thursday! Smart Brevityโข count: 1,490 words ... 5ยฝ mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Copy edited by Bryan McBournie.
๐ฐ Driving the day: President Trump will visit Federal Reserve headquarters at 4 p.m. ET amid his fight with Fed chair Jay Powell. The backstory.
๐ Situational awareness: Former President Biden sold his memoir to Hachette for roughly $10 million, The Wall Street Journal reports. No publication date has been set. (Gift link)
- The Obamas were paid around $60 million combined for their memoirs after leaving office. Former President Clinton received a $15 million advance for "My Life." George W. Bush made an estimated $10 million with "Decision Points."
1 big thing: MAGA's Obama dream

The Trump administration's feverish push for "transparency" over the 2016 Russia investigation is fast becoming a vehicle for MAGA's long dream: the potential prosecution of former President Obama, Axios' Tal Axelrod and Zachary Basu write.
- Why it matters: President Trump's war on his predecessor is dramatically escalating just as Trump faces new pressure over his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files โ with a steady stream of leaks extending the scandal, day by day.
For MAGA, the new focus on "Russiagate" offers a unifying reprieve โ a return to a comfort zone where Trump is the victim of a conspiracy, not the subject of one.
- It's a retribution campaign that's deeply personal to Trump's most loyal supporters, and one that could plunge the U.S. into uncharted territory if carried to its extreme conclusion.
๐ Zoom in: The two most explosive stories in Washington are unfolding in parallel.
1. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard appeared at the White House podium yesterday to unveil newly declassified documents that she claims expose a "treasonous conspiracy" by Obama-era intelligence officials.
- Asked whether she believes Obama himself committed crimes, Gabbard said she had referred the documents to the FBI.
2. Hours after Gabbard's press conference, The Wall Street Journal reported that Attorney General Pam Bondi had informed Trump in May that his name appeared in the Epstein files.
- Trump, who was friends with Epstein in the 90s and early 2000s, hasn't been accused of wrongdoing. The White House called the Journal story "fake news." It was later confirmed by CNN and The New York Times.
Between the lines: Obama's office has dismissed Trump's claims of treason as "bizarre" and "outrageous." It's unclear how the former president could even be charged, given the Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity that Trump cited in his own criminal cases.
- Still, Bondi announced the formation of a Justice Department "Strike Force" yesterday to review Gabbard's material and assess possible legal action.
๐ฅ Reality check: The newly declassified report released by Gabbard originates from a 2017 House Intelligence Committee probe of the intelligence community's investigation into Russian election interference.
- The report, drafted and revised solely by Republicans, questioned the analytical process behind the conclusion that Russian President Vladimir Putin preferred Trump over Hillary Clinton. But it didn't dispute the broader finding that Russia interfered in the 2016 election to hurt Clinton.
It offers no evidence of criminal conduct by Obama or his senior officials, despite Gabbard's claims of a "treasonous conspiracy."
2. ๐ค Trump's "woke" AI fight

The Trump administration's new AI Action Plan โ which offers the industry much of what it says it needs to compete with China โ also contains a time bomb for tech companies: an attempt to dictate how chatbots deal with contentious political issues, Axios' Ina Fried, Ashley Gold and Maria Curi write.
- Why it matters: Trump's move could be the first of many long-feared efforts by governments around the world to require AI systems to toe political lines, setting up endless conflicts between tech firms and rulers.
๐ฌ Zoom in: The plan โ and a related executive order on "Preventing Woke AI in the Federal Government" โ insists that any AI model procured by a federal agency must promote "ideological neutrality."
- The requirement poses thorny technical challenges and raises questions about who decides what counts as an acceptable answer.
๐ข The big picture: Most of the 23-page Action Plan gives a green light to the tech industry, focusing on accelerating AI innovation rather than addressing concerns such as model safety, environmental risks and the potential for job loss.
๐ค In a speech late yesterday at an AI summit in Washington, Trump called for doing "whatever it takes" to win the AI race.
- He also said that "we need to have a single federal standard, not 50 states," regulating AI, and nodded to the industry's desire to train AI systems on copyrighted content without having to compensate content creators.
๐ฅ Trump said that "winning the A.I. race will demand a new spirit of patriotism and national loyalty in Silicon Valley. ... We need U.S. technology companies to be all-in for America." (Video)
- "America is the country that started the A.I. race. And as President of the United States, I'm here today to declare that America is going to win it." (Video)
"All of this prosperity and progress has come from the culture of freedom and hard work, merit, ambition and risk-taking," Trump added. "Silicon Valley rose to wealth, fame, and glory by exemplifying these values. And it will win this race not by rejecting them, but by embracing them." (Video)
- Keep reading ... Read the 28-page policy, "Winning the Race: America's AI Action Plan."
3. ๐ผ The only deal Wall Street cares about
The stock market barely moved after the trade deal with Japan. Market sources tell Axios that's the new investor playbook for tariff headlines: Ignore them, unless it's about China.
- Why it matters: The market, which is up 27% since the early April lows, has already priced in trade deals. The only thing that could change that is a negative development in the U.S.-China trade relationship, Axios' Madison Mills writes.
๐ญ Zoom in: The tariff rate on China matters because companies in the stock market are heavily exposed to China as both a supplier and consumer.
- Annual S&P 500 revenue from China sits at $1.2 trillion, according to Apollo chief economist Torsten Slรธk.
- That's roughly four times the U.S. trade deficit with China.
"Unless the China stuff gets really ugly, I think the market will treat these as minor hiccups and potential 'buy the dips,'" Stuart Kaiser, head of U.S. equity strategy at Citi, told Axios.
4. โ๏ธ Charted: Trump's lawsuit surge

President Trump is already embroiled in as many new media and defamation lawsuits halfway through 2025 as he was in lawsuits that were filed all of last year, Kerry Flynn and Sara Fischer write in Axios Media Trends.
5. โก Tesla's budget model bet
Tesla said yesterday that it has begun production of "a more affordable model," Axios' Nathan Bomey writes.
- Why it matters: The automaker has long promised a cheaper EV, but has said little about it recently, fueling speculation that CEO Elon Musk had lost interest.
๐ The big picture: Tesla has been facing a sales backlash over Musk's past political support of President Trump.
- The company said yesterday that revenue was down 12% from a year earlier.
- "We probably could have a few rough quarters," Musk said on an earnings call. "I'm not saying we will, but we could."
6. ๐ฐ Columbia settles for $220M

Columbia University agreed yesterday to pay more than $220 million in fines as part of a settlement with the Trump administration that will restore the school's canceled federal research funding, Axios' Rebecca Falconer writes.
- Why it matters: Columbia was an epicenter of student protests sweeping college campuses last year over the Israel-Hamas war.
The administration had pulled about $400 million in federal grants and contracts from the university in March, citing the school's alleged "continued inaction in the face of persistent harassment of Jewish students."
- Education Secretary Linda McMahon said the agreement includes making "structural changes to their Faculty Senate," disciplining "student offenders for severe disruptions of campus operations," and ending "DEI programs that distribute benefits and advantages based on race."
7. ๐ค Axios interview: Hawley sounds AI alarm

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told Axios' Stef Kight at our News Shapers event in D.C. yesterday that AI has "enormous disruptive potential" that so far has mostly been unbeneficial for Americans.
- "If the Republican Party wants to be a party of working people, I think we better start thinking about how AI is going to affect working folks," Hawley said.

Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) told Axios' Stephen Neukam she's not going to fight "with one arm tied behind" her back as Texas Republicans pursue a President Trump-backed redistricting push.
- "If they're going to go nuclear in Texas, I'm going to go nuclear in other places," she said.
8. ๐๏ธ 1 for the road: America's worst traffic
D.C. dethroned Los Angeles to become the country's worst city for traffic, Axios D.C.'s Anna Spiegel writes from a new ranking by Consumer Affairs.
- Why it matters: The timing coincides with back-to-office orders for federal government employees, and many private sector organizations are following suit.
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