Top Republicans are increasingly worried about private polls that paint a dire picture of the midterms, Axios' Alex Isenstadt reports.

• 🏛️ It's not just the House they're afraid of losing — that's expected, based on history. Now, it's also the Senate, which looked safe.
• A Democratic takeover of the Senate would be a political earthquake — and neuter President Trump's last two years in office.

For the first time, GOP strategists are telling Axios that losing the Senate, where Republicans have a 53-47 majority, is a real possibility, and that they'll have to fight harder than expected to keep it.

• 🐎 Internal polling shows the GOP facing competitive Senate races not just in traditional battlegrounds (Michigan, Maine, North Carolina), but also in conservative states (Alaska, Iowa, Ohio).

💵 Top GOP strategists acknowledge that immigration and the economy — the two issues that drove Trump's win in 2024 — are now liabilities.

• One Republican operative tells Axios: "A year ago, I would have told you we were almost guaranteed to win the Senate. ... Today, I would have to tell you it's far less certain."

Three key issues are setting off Republicans' alarm bells:

🗺️ 1. The map problem.

• Republicans privately concede that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has done a good job of recruiting Senate candidates in conservative states once seen as out of Democrats' reach.

👢 2. The Texas problem.

• If incumbent Texas Sen. John Cornyn loses the upcoming GOP primary to state Attorney General Ken Paxton, polls suggest it could open the door to a Democrat winning Cornyn's seat in November.

🍑 3. The Georgia problem.

• The GOP's failure to recruit popular Gov. Brian Kemp for a Senate run has been a major setback in the party's efforts to pick off the most vulnerable Senate Democrat up for reelection: Georgia's Jon Ossoff.

🔮 Reality check: It's far too early to make predictions about 2026 Senate races.

• Primary season has barely begun, and Democrats could nominate weak contenders in states such as Iowa, Maine and Michigan.
• 💰 The GOP will also benefit from the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC, which has a staggering $304 million in cash.

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Bitcoin plummeted to $60,000 yesterday as a weeklong selloff accelerated, Axios' Pete Gannon and Madison Mills report.

• The plunge is testing both Wall Street's newfound crypto confidence and the resolve of new retail investors who bought near the top.
• Many new investors are already underwater.

🥊 The OG cryptocurrency is being hit from multiple angles.

• Investor sentiment is turning, after institutions and retail traders poured billions of dollars into the market.

😨 Zoom out ... Big shift in Wall Street mood: The "headlong rush into the most popular trades, from tech stocks to gold to cryptocurrencies, has given way to a sudden retreat from risk," Bloomberg reports (gift link).

• "Investors are pulling back, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declining, and assets like silver, Bitcoin, and tech stocks experiencing significant drops, while U.S. Treasuries rallied as a haven of last resort."

The White House last night launched its TrumpRx discount drug website, offering a new cash option for buying prescription drugs instead of using insurance, Axios' Maya Goldman reports.

• 👩‍⚕️ The site is a key part of President Trump's efforts to lower health costs.
• But most Americans likely already have access to even cheaper medicines through their health plans.

💵 The site features discounts that the Trump administration negotiated with several big drug companies, including Pfizer, AstraZeneca, EMD Serono, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.

• People can't buy drugs directly from the site.
• Instead, it's a landing page with links to pharmaceutical companies' direct-to-consumer platforms or to pharmacy coupons.

🎙️ Trump, at a White House unveiling: "People are going to save a lot of money and be healthy."

• Official site.

This year's Super Bowl ads will spotlight a slew of companies shaping American culture, Axios' Kerry Flynn and Sara Fischer report.

• 💰 Brands see big value in the big game, with some paying a record $10 million-plus for 30 seconds of airtime.

🤖 Anthropic is running a 60-second pregame spot and a 30-second in-game spot that pledge Claude will be ad-free — unlike OpenAI's ChatGPT.

• OpenAI is expected back after running its first TV commercial during last year's game.
• 😎 Meta will advertise its Oakley smart glasses in two 30-second spots.

Health startup Hims & Hers returns to the Super Bowl this year.

• 🎰 Fanatics Sportsbook is running its first-ever big game commercial, featuring Kendall Jenner. "Saturday Night Live" stars Colin Jost and Michael Che are in DraftKings' spot. FanDuel's ad runs prior to kickoff.

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Car insurance prices dipped last year after a post-pandemic stretch of skyrocketing costs, Alex Fitzpatrick writes from a new Insurify report.

• 📉 The average annual full-coverage premium fell 6% nationally from 2024 to 2025, to $2,144.

📈 That relief comes after costs rose nearly 50% from 2022 to 2024, "partially due to risky driving behavior following the pandemic," the insurance-comparison platform says.

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A San Jose energy company's stock has quietly shot up nearly 500% over the past year, thanks to deals with power-hungry AI giants, Axios' Amy Harder reports.

• Bloom Energy makes shipping-container-sized fuel cell units that generate power with natural gas.

Why it matters: The Silicon Valley company shows how suppliers, not just the giant AI companies, are benefiting from the boom.

🔌 The company's promise: Deliver on-site power faster than traditional options — a critical edge as data centers scramble for juice.

• It has signed major deals with Oracle, utility AEP and Brookfield (a leading data center asset financier and owner).

📞 Co-founder and CEO KR Sridhar: "We went from zero hyperscalers directly talking to us to pretty much every hyperscaler talking to us."

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⛸️ The Milano Cortina Winter Olympics open today in Italy and run 17 days, through Feb. 22. The three-hour opening ceremony begins at 2 p.m. ET, with a primetime encore at 8 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.

MILAN, Italy — The first Olympic match at Milan's brand new Milano Santa Giulia Ice Hockey Arena went off without a hitch yesterday, with the Italian women's team beating France 4-1, Axios' Ina Fried reports.

• 🏗️ Construction delays brushed up against this week's deadline. But most in the crowd couldn't tell just how close a shave it was: The arena isn't fully finished, but the play on the ice was stellar.

🇺🇸 In a separate women's match played at the smaller Rho Arena, Team USA handily defeated the Czech Republic, 5-1.

• 👀 What we're watching: Canada-Finland was postponed amid a norovirus flare-up among the Finns, fueling worries of a broader outbreak.

Go deeper ... Olympics watch guide.

Sports ticket prices skyrocketed over the last decade across the country's hottest leagues, Axios' Travis Meier reports from new Gametime data.

• 🏈 Average NFL ticket prices on the ticketing platform nearly tripled from 2015 to 2025, after adjusting for inflation.

College football prices are up 119%, MLB is up 111%, and the NBA is up 70%.

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