The Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize. It could begin very soon, Axios' Barak Ravid writes.

• Why it matters: A U.S. military operation in Iran would likely be a massive, weekslong campaign that would look more like full-fledged war than last month's pinpoint operation in Venezuela, sources say.

The sources noted it would likely be a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that's much broader in scope — and more existential for the regime — than the Israeli-led 12-day war last June, which the U.S. eventually joined to take out Iran's underground nuclear facilities.

• Such a war would have a dramatic influence on the entire region, and major implications for the remaining three years of the Trump presidency.
• With the attention of Congress and the public otherwise occupied, there has been little public debate about what could be the most consequential U.S. military intervention in the Middle East in at least a decade.

🖼️ The big picture: Trump came close to striking Iran in early January over the killing of thousands of protesters by the regime.

• Instead, the administration shifted to a two-track approach: nuclear talks paired with a massive military buildup.
• By delaying and bringing so much force to bear, Trump has raised expectations for what an operation will look like if a deal can't be reached.
• And right now, a deal doesn't look likely.

Trump advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi for three hours in Geneva yesterday.

• While both sides said the talks "made progress," the gaps are wide, and U.S. officials aren't optimistic about closing them.

Vice President Vance told Fox News the talks "went well" in some ways, but "in other ways, it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through."

• Vance made it clear that while Trump wants a deal, he could determine that diplomacy has "reached its natural end."

⚓ Zoom in: Trump's armada has grown to include two aircraft carriers, a dozen warships, hundreds of fighter jets and multiple air defense systems. Some of that firepower is still on its way.

• More than 150 U.S. military cargo flights have moved weapons systems and ammunition to the Middle East.
• In the past 24 hours, another 50 fighter jets — F-35s, F-22s and F-16s — headed to the region.

Between the lines: Trump's military and rhetorical buildups make it hard for him to back down without major concessions from Iran on its nuclear program.

• It's not in Trump's nature, and his advisers don't view the deployment of all that hardware as a bluff.

With Trump, anything can happen. But all signs point to him pulling the trigger if talks fail.

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Jim & Mike are out with a new "Behind the Curtain" video, based on Barak's reporting on why the risk of war with Iran is higher than most Americans realize.

• 👉 Watch it here ... Subscribe on YouTube.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been holding secret talks with the grandson and caretaker of Cuba's aging de facto dictator, Raúl Castro, as the U.S. puts unprecedented pressure on Havana's regime, three sources tell Axios' Marc Caputo.

• Why it matters: The talks between Rubio and Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro are bypassing official Cuban government channels. They show that the Trump administration sees the 94-year-old revolutionary as the communist island's true decision-maker.

🔎 Zoom in: Rubio and his team see the 41-year-old grandson and his circle as representing younger, business-minded Cubans for whom revolutionary communism has failed.

• "Our position — the U.S. government's position — is the regime has to go," the senior official said. "But what exactly that looks like is up to [President Trump] and he has yet to decide."
• Called "Raulito," the younger Castro is known in political circles by his nickname "El Cangrejo" ("The Crab") because he has a deformed finger.

The big picture: After 67 years of U.S. sanctions and Cuban mismanagement, the totalitarian government appears closer than ever to collapse as the island teeters on the edge of a humanitarian crisis.

• The power grid is failing. Hospitals are limiting surgeries. Food and fuel are increasingly scarce. Tourism is drying up. Uncollected garbage is piling up on some street corners.
• The troubles accelerated after Trump ordered the abduction and extradition of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, who essentially supplied free oil to Cuba.
• Trump then threatened sanctions on the island's other large oil supplier, Mexico.

👓 Between the lines: The U.S. decision to keep Maduro's governing partners in power — notably his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez — signaled to Cuban insiders that the U.S. is willing to make deals with rivals.

• "They're looking for the next Delcy in Cuba," a source familiar with the talks said.

Keep reading.

More new moms are having kids solo in their 40s, with births to unmarried women 40 and over doubling since 2007, Axios' Carly Mallenbaum writes.

• Why it matters: More women are choosing solo motherhood later in life, reshaping when and how Americans build families.

🧮 By the numbers: In the U.S., 1.1% of babies were born to unmarried women 40 and older in 2024 — more than twice the roughly 0.5% in 2007.

• Keep reading.

One seat. Three months. Prove you're the real deal.

Axios co-founders Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen are hiring one graduating senior to embed with us for a summer residency as our in-house AI savant.

• Crush it, and you'll have a full-time offer waiting.

Why it matters to you: You'll have daily access to the founders. You'll brief us on what's moving in LLMs, build prototypes for app ideas, and pressure-test projects that could reshape how a major media company uses AI.

• This isn't an internship where you shadow someone. We'd be learning from you while you're learning from us.

What you bring: You live in this space. You've fine-tuned models, shipped something that works, gone deep enough to have insight into where we're heading. You're technical, but can explain things clearly to people who aren't.

• We're looking for curiosity, sophistication, and a structured mind that brings sharp context and multilevel thinking.
• Passion for big ideas and entrepreneurial experiments is a must. Media experience? Optional.

How to get the seat: Send us your resume and a short note (seriously, short) detailing your AI experience, and detailing one thing you've built or problem you've solved. That's it. We're anxious to meet you.

• Apply here.

Ford is chasing physics to make electric vehicles more affordable, even borrowing aerodynamic tricks from F1 racing in the quest to squeeze out better performance at a far lower cost, Axios' Joann Muller writes.

• Why it matters: Ford, like the rest of the industry, got burned on EVs, writing off $19.5 billion worth of investments on cars no one wanted to buy. But it's not abandoning its electric ambitions.

Ford's bet is that people will prefer a well-equipped battery-powered car over a gas model if the price is right.

• A $30,000 midsize pickup truck, due in 2027, is the initial test of the carmaker's latest strategy.

It's the first in a family of vehicles to be built on a new low-cost EV platform Ford secretly began working on in 2022.

• Other models — potentially including compact SUVs, sedans and commercial vans — will follow over the next decade.

Keep reading.

Tributes flow: "How Jesse Jackson taught activism to the next generation," Axios Chicago's Carrie Shepherd.

Tide is introducing one of the biggest changes to laundry detergent in more than a decade with the rollout of Tide evo — a dry, tile-based alternative to liquids and pods, Axios' Kelly Tyko writes.

• Why it matters: The last time Tide made a comparable leap — with Pods in 2012 — the product grew into a more than $2 billion annual business for Procter & Gamble.

Keep reading.