New preliminary data from major U.S. cities shows a sharp drop in violent crime in the first half of the year — more than 25% in some communities — as the COVID-era crime wave recedes, Axios' Russell Contreras writes.

• Why it matters: The drop in violent crime puts a serious dent in one of the most frequently used lines of attack by former President Trump.

It also gives Vice President Harris, a former prosecutor in San Francisco and California attorney general, a potent defense against attacks from the right on crime.

• President Biden seized on the numbers last week: "Americans are safer today than when Vice President Harris and I took office."
• Trump spent much of his Thursday press conference hitting Harris for being "weak on crime." Running mate JD Vance has targeted Democratic rival Tim Walz over his response to riots after a Minneapolis police officer murdered George Floyd four years ago.

🧮 By the numbers: An Axios analysis of data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association found an overall 6% decline in violent crime among 69 cities during the first six months of 2024 compared to the same period last year.

• 54 of the 69 major cities in the report saw drops in violent crime in the first half of 2024, according to the Axios review.
• Columbus experienced the largest percentage decline in violent crime in the nation, with a massive 41% drop so far in 2024. Omaha was second with a 30% decrease.
• Miami and D.C. so far, have seen 29% declines in violent crime.

👀 The intrigue: The Axios review also found that the number of homicides in the 69 reported cities fell by more than 17% during the first half of 2024 compared to the last period last year.

• Boston experienced a dramatic 78% drop in homicides.
• Philadelphia was among others that saw a big fall in homicides, with a 42% decrease in 2024.

Caveat: The Major Cities Chiefs Association's preliminary data didn't include New York City — the nation's largest city — since it did not submit violent crime numbers to the organization for the first half of 2024.

• Share this story ... Read Biden's statement.

The Israeli intelligence community's updated assessment is that Iran is poised to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas' political leader in Tehran and is likely to do it within days, sources told Axios' Barak Ravid.

• Why it matters: The new intelligence assessment indicates an attack could come before the Gaza hostage and ceasefire talks planned for Thursday. That potentially jeopardizes negotiations at what Israeli officials have said is a "now-or-never" moment for a potential deal between Israel and Hamas.

🔬 Zoom in: The assessment, which was drafted in the last 24 hours, represents a shift.

• Over the last week, Israeli intelligence thought Iran hadn't yet decided on the timing and nature of its response — and that international pressure and internal debates could push Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei towards postponing, restraining or minimizing the retaliation.
• Iran's mission to the UN, in a statement on Friday, said: "[W]e hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire."
• But Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin yesterday that the Iranian military preparations suggest Iran is getting ready for a large-scale attack, a source told Axios.

Share this story.

For the first time this election cycle, voters trust the Democratic candidate more than former President Trump on the economy, according to polling by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan.

• Why it matters: The share of voters who say they don't trust either candidate nearly fell by half — another example of the disappearing "double hater."

The survey "marks a sharp change in voter sentiment following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the White House race" last month, according to the FT. ($)

• Michigan professor Erik Gordon told the paper: "The fact that voters were more positive on [Vice President] Harris than on Biden ... says as much about how badly Biden was doing as it does about how well Harris is doing."

Keep reading.

PARIS — The 2024 Olympics finished with a flourish, Axios' Ina Fried writes:

• First came the nail-biting gold medal women's basketball match, where the U.S. held off France by a single point.
• Then came Paris' majestic, star-studded closing ceremony at the picturesque Stade de France to hand the Summer Games off to Los Angeles, which will host the event in four years.

Tom Cruise wowed by descending from the top of the stadium to electric guitar "Mission: Impossible" riffs.

• Once his feet were back on the ground — and after shaking hands with enthralled athletes — he took the Olympic flag from star gymnast Simone Biles, fixed it to the back of a motorcycle and roared out of the arena.

🥇 By the numbers: Team USA tied China for the most golds with 40 each. The U.S. won the overall count in a landslide with 126 medals, almost three dozen more than China.

• Watch Tom Cruise's entrance ... Full medal table.

🏀 P.S. NBC said the U.S. men's basketball team's thrilling win over France on Saturday was the most-watched gold medal game since 1996. Go deeper.

Tom Cruise, representing L.A.'s. local industry, receives the Olympic flag from Simon Biles and L.A. Mayor Karen Bass, kicking off the runup to LA28.

• Closing ceremony performers.

New U.S. homes are now cheaper per square foot than old ones, Axios' Sami Sparber writes from a Zillow report.

• Why it matters: People typically pay a premium for brand-new houses. But in this brutal home market, some are finding deals.

🔭 The big picture: With elevated interest rates hammering housing affordability, many builders are shrinking homes to cut costs or offering incentives, including lower rates on mortgages.

• Keep reading.

The DNC is launching its first ad blitz since Vice President Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz became running mates, Axios' Erin Doherty writes.

• Why it matters: One of those ads is a billboard on the Las Vegas Strip — a splashy reminder Democrats are making a play for Nevada, which Republicans thought they had in the bag.

The DNC says it's launching 80+ billboards — in English and Spanish — around big metros in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

• Cities on the list include Pittsburgh, Phoenix, Milwaukee, Asheville and Grand Rapids.

Keep reading.

As society's feelings toward dating apps have shifted from taboo to fun to frustrating, the underlying businesses are being forced to rethink their products, Axios' Kerry Flynn writes.

Bumble's shares plunged nearly 30% on Thursday after its earnings report included a drastic cutting of its outlook, a revenue miss and a strategy reset.

• "When they ran through the list of items that they think they need to address or improve, it's everything," says Stifel analyst Mark Kelley.

🎨 The big picture: Dating apps initially had unique twists. Tinder was about swiping for a hookup, Hinge connected mutual friends via Facebook login, Bumble made women make the first move.

• Over time, those lines have blurred as the apps found themselves gravitating toward the same growth and monetization strategies.

Between the lines: Many people are tired of swiping, and are seeking out in-person events.

• Jordana Abraham, co-founder of Betches Media and co-host of its dating podcast "U Up?," says apps "have to offer a salad ... something that makes people feel less burnt out, less commodified, less gamified."

Get Axios Markets.

"Toy Story 5" will be toys vs. tech in the summer 2026 film featuring Woody, Buzz and the rest of the crew, director Andrew Stanton said.

• Why it matters: Disney teased its upcoming movies and TV series at its D23 convention — a biennial spectacle for hardcore fans.

Disney teased "Moana 2," out Nov. 27, with a new trailer and a performance by its cast.

• Pixar said it's developing an "Incredibles 3" movie.
• The animation studio also revealed it's working on a show set in between "Inside Out" and "Inside Out 2" that will start streaming in 2025.

More Disney and Pixar updates.