After months of brutal polls, President Biden has at least some cause for optimism.

• Why it matters: Swing-state polls had shown former President Trump heading for nearly a clean sweep. But there's early evidence the race tightened after Trump's guilty verdict, Axios' Dave Lawler reports.

📊 By the numbers: Five national polls conducted after the verdict showed the race unchanged, or moving slightly in Biden's direction.

• The New York Times/Siena College poll recontacted registered voters who'd taken part in surveys in April and May, and found the national race moving from Trump up 3 to Trump up 1. (The Times says that since a recontacting study isn't necessarily representative of the entire electorate, it's impossible to calculate a margin of error.)
• Most Republicans are standing by their man. But 10% of Republicans, and 25% of independents, in a Reuters/Ipsos poll are now less likely to vote for Trump.

🎨 The big picture: The Washington Post calls the polling consensus a "little but pretty evident shift toward Biden."

• While some Trump allies predicted the hush money case would rally Americans to his side, at least half of U.S. adults in multiple polls thought the verdict was correct.

🥊 Reality check: It's way too early to know how Trump's legal troubles will ultimately affect the race. The most conclusive finding from the post-conviction polls: For the vast majority of voters, nothing has changed.

The bottom line: Biden's position in polls is much weaker than this time four years ago. But he has a narrow, credible path to victory.

Fruit-borne disease and extreme weather, plus a warming climate, are throttling orange-producing regions in Brazil and Florida — curbing harvests and driving up citrus prices, Axios' Deena Zaidi reports.

• Why it matters: Oranges, one of the most popular fruits in America, join the list of everyday prices frustrating consumers and clouding their perceptions of the economy.

🧮 By the numbers: Florida orange production plummeted 92% in 20 years due to freezes, hurricanes and disease, according to a report last month by Citrus Industry Magazine.

• A USDA forecast last year said the Florida orange crop would be the lowest since 1935 — nearly 90 years ago.

The average retail price of orange juice frozen concentrate in the U.S. spiked to an all-time high in April — $4.28 per 16 ounces, up from $3.01 a year ago.

• The global price of oranges is $3.68 per pound for April this year, up from $2.76 per pound a year ago.

🖼️ The big picture: A wide range of commodities — including sugar, cocoa and coffee — are being hit by forces that have sent global prices on a tear.

• "Food prices are a very tangible way to talk about climate change," Uriyoán Colón-Ramos, director of the Diet Disparities Lab at George Washington University, tells Axios.

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White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, before leaving Paris with President Biden today, said of Israel's rescue of four hostages held by Hamas in Gaza:

• "There were no U.S. forces, no U.S. boots on the ground involved in this operation — we did not participate militarily in this operation," he told Dana Bash on CNN's "State of the Union."

🔎 Behind the scenes: The U.S. provided intelligence that aided the rescue.

A team of special operations and intelligence personnel has been working out of the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem since the war began, The Washington Post reports:

• The team has given Israel information about the hostages' potential location, based on U.S. drone surveillance over Gaza, communications intercepts and other sources.

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Young people are increasingly seeking out in-person events to meet partners, Axios' April Rubin writes from a report from event management platform Eventbrite.

• Why it matters: Swiping fatigue has led Gen Z and Millennials to "seek more authentic settings like social clubs and hobby groups in their search for potential partners," Eventbrite said.

🎟️ By the numbers: Attendance at dating and singles events on Eventbrite increased 42% from 2022 to 2023.

📱 The big picture: Dating apps have lost their luster among college students, as their parent companies face hurdles on Wall Street.

• In-person dating events are going beyond speed dating, with trending Eventbrite meet-ups for singles including game-based nights and athletic gatherings.
• Interest- and hobby-based events have increased in popularity.

Safety is a growing concern among online daters.

• Gaining popularity: An old-fashioned set-up by a mutual friend.

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John Bordieri was dubbed the Calamari Ninja: He stood wordlessly, clad head-to-toe in black, holding a platter of lightly buttered, sautéed squid on a Rhode Island beach during the video roll call of states that formally nominated Joe Biden in 2020.

• But Bordieri said he's not heard from state or national party leaders about a repeat performance — and now prefers former President Trump, AP's Will Weissert reports.

"I'm a Trump supporter, to be honest with you," Bordieri, 57, said in an interview. "But I was told to tell everybody that I'm independent."

• Go deeper ... From today's L.A. Times front page, "Trump nets millions from Silicon Valley: Some wealthy donors in largely Democratic tech region now lean Republican."

The cost of congressional campaigns has skyrocketed 3x faster than inflation since 1998, Bruce Mehlman writes in his "Six-Chart Sunday" Substack newsletter.

• Why it matters: That forces lawmakers to constantly dial for dollars, "deluge potential donors with apocalyptic emails & nonstop text messages, and court zillionaires who might fund Super PACs."

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A longtime jazz duo is tackling an often-overlooked episode in U.S. history — the destruction of Black communities due to the Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956, Axios' Russ Contreras reports.

• Greg Bryant and Paul Horton of the jazz duo Concurrence on Friday released their ambitious "Indivisible" LP, telling the story of how highways upended vibrant communities of color, including I-40 through Nashville.

Why it matters: Interstates displaced Black businesses and forced residents to leave homes, from the East Coast to the American South to the Southwest, without fair compensation.

• Experts say the program erased generations of Black wealth in the name of progress and moving possible nuclear weapons during the Cold War.

🔬 Zoom in: Available for streaming on platforms, including Spotify, "Indivisible" uses spoken word, joyful beats and reflective vibes to show what was lost and how communities fought back.

• "Groovin at the Del Morocco" elicits images of a busy street of Black businesses and happiness.
• "I-40 Was a Razor" invokes terror, confusion and anger.

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Together, the collective age of the bride and groom was nearly 200:

• Harold Terens, 100 — who served in the U.S. Army during World War II — and his sweetheart, Jeanne Swerlin, 96, tied the knot yesterday, just inland of the D-Day beaches in Normandy, France, AP reports.

Why it matters: On her way into the nuptials, the bride-to-be said: "It's not just for young people, love, you know? We get butterflies. And we get a little action, also."

🪖 The backstory: Terens first visited France as a 20-year-old U.S. Army Air Forces corporal shortly after D-Day.

• In Britain on D-Day, Terens helped repair planes returning from France so they could rejoin the battle. He said half his company's pilots died that day.

🥂 Being there: As the swing of Glenn Miller and other period tunes rang out on the streets, well-wishers — some in WWII-period clothes — lined up a good hour before the wedding, behind barriers outside the town hall, with a rousing pipe and drum band to serenade the couple.

• With Champagne flutes in hand, they waved through an open window to the adoring crowd outside.

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