Fear of recession could be the final straw that actually tips the economy into that recession, Axios managing editor for business Javier E. David writes.

• Wall Street economists have been gradually raising their recession forecasts. Their estimates now put the likelihood of a recession somewhere between 30% and 50%.
• Veteran market analyst Peter Boockvar last week said 99%.

What's happening: Persistent inflation, and the Fed's campaign to rein it in, are conspiring to tip the economy into a downturn — one that even Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges could metastasize into a recession.

🎵 Between the lines: All the chatter about a slowdown is creating what could best be summed up as "Something Just Ain't Right," the 1987 hit by soul singer Keith Sweat.

Ritholtz Wealth CEO "Downtown" Josh Brown recently argued in an Instagram post that we may "talk ourselves into a recession," given the sharp downturn in consumer psychology.

• Share this story.

Gun violence and crime surged past inflation to become the top concern for U.S. Latinos in a new Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll, in partnership with Noticias Telemundo.

• The survey was conducted in mid-June, two weeks after the school shooting in the mostly Hispanic city of Uvalde, Texas, Axios' Russell Contreras and Margaret Talev write.

Why it matters: The findings underscore how deeply that tragedy — following a mass shooting targeting Black shoppers in Buffalo, N.Y. — shook Americans and drove pressure for Congress to act.

"Going into this poll, inflation and the economy was the dominant issue," said Ipsos pollster and senior vice president Chris Jackson.

• "As long as that's true, Democrats are going to continue to hemorrhage support among the Latino base."

Survey respondents gave Republicans higher marks on the economy: 25% said the GOP is stronger; 18% said Dems are stronger.

• Those polled were divided over which party is better on crime: 53% said people in power don't take crimes against Hispanic or Latino people seriously enough. Another 31% weren't sure.

🔮 Later today in Axios Latino: Our survey found lower gun ownership rates among Latino respondents — and overwhelming support for expanded background checks and red-flag laws.

• Get Axios Latino, out twice weekly.

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), vice chair of the House Jan. 6 committee, told ABC's Jonathan Karl at the Reagan Library in California that she is "absolutely confident" in this week's riveting testimony by former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson.

• "The committee is not going to stand by and watch her character be assassinated by anonymous sources and by men who are claiming executive privilege," Cheney said in an interview for ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos."

Why it matters: The Secret Service has challenged the specifics of Cassidy's account of former President Trump's actions in his SUV on 1/6.

• Watch ABC video ... Watch Cheney's speech yesterday at the Reagan Library's "A Time for Choosing" series.

One in 10 U.S. homes sold in the first quarter of 2022 was "flipped" — or bought and sold within a year by an arms-length buyer — the highest level since 2000, Jennifer A. Kingson writes for Axios What's Next.

• Why it matters: The upward march in home prices has turned house flipping into a blood sport.

Where they're flipping: Phoenix took the flipping prize for the first quarter of 2022: 18.7% of all home sales there were flips.

• Next came Charlotte, N.C. (18%) ... Tucson, Ariz. (16.2%) ... Atlanta (16.1%) ... and Jacksonville, Fla. (16%).

What's next: The fix-and-flip market is expected to cool alongside the broader real estate market.

• Share this story.

The acrid state of politics is seeping into Americans' relationships and behavior, according to a poll out today from the University of Chicago's Institute of Politics (IOP), headed by David Axelrod.

• As you see above, three-quarters of respondents in each party think people in the other "are generally bullies."

The online survey of 1,000 registered voters was conducted last month by Republican pollster Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies and Democratic pollster Joel Benenson of Benenson Strategy Group, with input from students at the IOP.

🥊 Half of those polled say they have friends or relatives "who have changed because of the media they consume."

• A quarter reported losing friends — and the same number said they have avoided friends and relatives — over politics.

Go deeper: Read the poll ... See a deck of verbatim responses.

"Dozens of Democratic prosecutors who represent liberal pockets in conservative states already have vowed to resist bans by refusing to bring charges against abortion providers," the N.Y. Times reports from Texas (subscription).

• Why it matters: This is "the beginning of an explosive new battle over abortion in America: How prosecutors and the police will enforce laws that criminalize abortion in two dozen states, some of them carrying penalties of up to 15 years in prison."

Between the lines: "It is unlikely that even the most vociferous promises of protection from Democratic prosecutors will persuade abortion clinics to remain open in defiance of state bans," The Times notes.

• Go deeper: Axios' Oriana Gonzalez told you before the ruling about blue areas that vow to become sanctuaries from abortion bans.

Tomorrow is the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's handover to China from Britain. Beijing's tightening grip is reflected in the relative size of the Chinese flags — vs. the Hong Kong flags — on this Hong Kong apartment building.

• Xi Jinping arrived in Hong Kong today — his first trip outside of mainland China in nearly 2½ years.

Why it matters: Under Xi, China has reshaped Hong Kong in the past two years, cracking down on protest and freedom of speech. The changes have all but eliminated opposition voices, and driven many to leave. (AP)

This "seascape in the sky" — as it's being called after going viral on Facebook — was taken by Theresa Birgin Lucas, from the northern Minnesota town of Bemidji.

"It was out my windshield as I was driving (shhhh)," Lucas told me over Facebook. "My daughter was wanting to know how much longer before I was home, I took this picture and told her 'I'm close to Akeley' — she was worried because of the storm."

• "The clouds looked like they were going to unzip, if that makes sense — they looked like the picture, but more real because it was just about over me."

"I didn't look at the picture till I got home," Lucas added. "Not sure why I was there to take that picture but I was. I was in Rochester, Minn., for a family emergency, and drove home."

• "Crazy how a quick picture taken on my 'iPhone 8' 🤣 has this much attention! I'm glad people can enjoy it. I hope to enter it in the Minnesota State Fair if it's accepted!"

Go deeper.