The political market is rendering two unambiguous trend lines: Mike Bloomberg's TV monopoly is fueling his surge into the top tier of Democratic presidential rivals, and cash-strapped Joe Biden is crashing.
- Bloomberg's air war has vaulted him into 2020's top tier in national polls, media attention, insider/establishment buzz and the betting markets.
- And Biden is dropping in those same metrics, Axios' Margaret Talev and Alexi McCammond report from Manchester, N.H.
Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg are the favorites going into today's New Hampshire primary. Beneath the surface, here are the Bloomberg and Biden trends to watch:
- State polling and our conversations with voters and campaigns show Biden at risk of finishing as low as fifth, behind Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar. That could imperil the firewall he's always counted on from black voters in the South Carolina primary at the end of the month.
- Bloomberg, who jumped in late, is skipping the first four states to focus on Super Tuesday and beyond.
A Quinnipiac University poll out yesterday found "Biden no longer dominates on the key question of electability," with 27% of national Democratic or Dem-leaning voters giving Biden the best chance of beating President Trump — a steep drop from 44% just two weeks ago.
- Sanders was second with 24%. Bloomberg was third with 17% — up from 9% in late January, and ahead of Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar.
- Among black primary voters, the poll found Biden's lead has dropped to 27% from 51% in December, with Bloomberg jumping to the second spot, at 22%, slightly ahead of Sanders.
Oddsmakers see Bloomberg in second, behind Sanders.
- Biden has tanked in the PredictIt online market, where his shares cost 43¢ on Jan. 8 and now go for 11¢. Bernie goes for 48¢, Mike for 28¢ and Pete is 14¢.
Biden deputy campaign manager Kate Bedingfield told reporters that if this were the World Series, "I would say this is Game 2 and we're going all the way to Game 7."
🥊 DIXVILLE NOTCH, N.H. (AP) — Mike Bloomberg carried a tiny New Hampshire community that votes at the stroke of midnight: Bloomberg received three write-in votes. The others went to Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders.