Economic growth has flatlined so far this year. Inflation has picked up. And consumers expect both to get worse in the months ahead, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes.

• Why it matters: For the moment, it adds up to Wall Street's least-favorite "s-word," stagflation — stagnant growth mixed with elevated inflation.

👀 That pattern, most vividly seen in the 1970s, is particularly painful because it means people experience pain from both lack of job opportunities and higher prices.

• It also leaves the Fed and other economic policymakers with less ability to cushion the blow because a move that might address one side of the problem could worsen the other.

The takeaway, from a slew of recent data, is that President Trump inherited a shakier economy than it seemed and is risking something worse with aggressive policy moves.

📉 State of play: The backward-looking data lately has been distinctly stagflationary. Consumer spending in the first two months of 2025 has been soft, coming in 0.6% below its December rate (when adjusted for inflation).

• A real-time estimate of GDP published by the Atlanta Fed is now pointing to economic activity shrinking by 0.5% in Q1, which ends Monday (after adjusting for gold inflows that distort economic data).
• Meanwhile, the inflation measure favored by the Fed has risen at a 4.1% annual rate in the first two months of 2025, the highest in a year.
• That all helps explain why, following a steep selloff Friday, the S&P 500 is now 9% below its Feb. 19 high.

💡 Reality check: The GDP number appears to be depressed by a one-time surge of imports as companies try to get ahead of tariffs. Inflation has been on a bumpy path for years.

• Key measures of the job market have held up fine.

But when it comes to what will happen next, Americans have become more downbeat on both the outlook for jobs and inflation.

• The University of Michigan's long-running consumer sentiment survey dropped for the fourth straight month in March, with the steepest declines seen in what Americans — including Republicans — expect for the future.
• Two-thirds now expect unemployment to rise over the next year, the highest share since the annus horribilis of 2009.
• At the same time, the average expectation for inflation over the next year surged to 5%, from 4.3%.

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President Trump has ordered a federal review of monuments toppled after George Floyd's murder, targeting what he calls a "concerted and widespread effort to rewrite our Nation's history."

• Why it matters: The Trump administration is leaving no stone unturned in its push to erase the legacy of 2020's racial reckoning, including by restoring monuments to Confederate leaders who fought to preserve slavery, Axios' Russell Contreras and Delano Massey write.

Zoom in: Trump signed an executive order Thursday that takes aim at what he called a "revisionist movement" that has infiltrated the Smithsonian Institution and other federal sites dedicated to America's history.

• Besides purging "improper ideology" from Smithsonian facilities, Trump directed the Department of the Interior to determine whether "public monuments, memorials, statues, markers, or similar properties" in its jurisdiction have been removed or changed "to perpetuate a false reconstruction of American history."

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The White House plans to impose its own seating chart for reporters in the briefing room in coming weeks, taking over a function long managed by the reporters themselves through the White House Correspondents' Association, a top official tells Mike.

• Why it matters: It's the latest — but likely not the last — effort by the White House to take a heavier hand in shaping who covers President Trump. In public and private, White House officials make it clear they are determined to upend decades-old press corps traditions.

Behind the scenes: Some members of the correspondents' association (WHCA) have been looking for ways to de-escalate. A senior White House official told Axios that a WHCA member had privately raised the possibility of changing the organization's bylaws so the sitting White House press secretary, currently Karoline Leavitt, always serves as WHCA president.

• The tough-sell argument for the change: Rekindle collaboration between WHCA and the White House, and ensure buy-in from both.
• The official called the possibility an "interesting idea," but said they're "skeptical the association's board could pull it off."
• WHCA says it "exists to promote excellence in journalism as well as journalism education, and to ensure robust news coverage of the president and the presidency." Members could be expected to roundly reject the idea of a press secretary as their president.

📝 The backstory: Prominent seats in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room are coveted because it's easier to catch the press secretary's eye to ask tough and probing questions. Those correspondents' interactions are also more likely to be showcased on TV.

• In February, the White House began designating the pool of reporters who accompany Trump in tight spaces like the Oval Office and Air Force One — another function the WHCA had controlled for generations. WHCA said in response: "In a free country, leaders must not be able to choose their own press corps."

⚖️ The Associated Press on Thursday asked a federal judge to reinstate the wire service's access to pooled events, which has been sharply curtailed by the White House. "AP has now spent 44 days in the penalty box," Charles Tobin, a lawyer for the newswire, said at the hearing.

• WHCA's decision to support AP in its dispute with the White House prompted the changes in the pool structure.

📱 How it works: Discussing the coming seating chart, the senior White House official said plans have already been formalized for a "fundamental restructuring of the briefing room, based on metrics more reflective of how media is consumed today."

• The new layout will include representatives of TV, print and digital outlets. The digital assignments will include both online influencers and newer organizations such as Axios, NOTUS and Punchbowl.

"The goal isn't merely favorable coverage," said the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss plans that haven't been announced. "It's truly an honest look at consumption [of the outlets' coverage]. Influencers are important but it's tough because they aren't [equipped to provide] consistent coverage. So the ability to cover the White House is part of the metrics."

• Major legacy outlets will still be included. But expect some to have diminished visibility compared with their customary spots in the first few rows. "We want to balance disruption with responsibility," the official said.

The big picture: WHCA President Eugene Daniels announced in an email to members yesterday that the association is canceling a planned appearance by comedian Amber Ruffin as the featured entertainer at the annual White House Correspondents' Dinner on April 26.

• White House deputy chief of staff Taylor Budowich on Friday night tweeted a clip of Ruffin on a Daily Beast podcast conversation about her preparations for the dinner, where she referred to Trump administration officials as "kind of a bunch of murderers."
• Budowich asked: "What kind of responsible, sensible journalist would attend something like this?"

In announcing there'll be no headliner at next month's dinner, Daniels wrote: "As the date nears, I will share more details of the plans in place to honor journalistic excellence and a robust, independent media covering the most powerful office in the world."

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Muslims around the world are bidding farewell to the Islamic holy month of Ramadan and celebrating Eid al-Fitr with their family and friends.

• During Ramadan, devout Muslims fast daily from dawn to sunset. Eid al-Fitr means the feast, or festival, of breaking the fast.

In Gaza, this will be the second Eid al-Fitr since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.

• Syrians will celebrate their first Eid al-Fitr since the end of more than half a century of the Assad family's iron-fisted rule.

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President Trump seriously considered firing national security adviser Mike Waltz over this week's humiliating Signal chat leak, but cooled down and talked himself out of it — partly to deny his critics the satisfaction, Trump insiders tell Axios' Marc Caputo and Mike Allen.

• Why it matters: We're told Waltz's job is safe for now. But he has gotten crosswise with several other top officials. "Mike is gonna make it," a top West Wing insider said. "Now it's up to Mike to make things better."

🔎 Behind the scenes: Trump officials say he was madder that Waltz had Jeffrey Goldberg's number in his phone than he was about the exposure of sensitive military strike details. Waltz's sloppy explanation to Fox News' Laura Ingraham made things worse.

• Trump was fuming about Tuesday night's interview, where Waltz said "we're going to figure out how this happened" — even though he's the one who mistakenly added Goldberg. (This is the national security version of the "Hot Dog Guy" meme.)

🖼️ The big picture: Some America First celebrities, including Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon, have long been suspicious of Waltz's neocon roots.

• Steve Bannon texted that Waltz kept his job because "we hate the globalist media even more than we hate neocons."

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The resistance of 2025 may not be wearing a pink knitted cap. But it's alive in town halls, streets, campuses and car dealerships across the country, Axios' Avery Lotz reports.

• The early moves of President Trump's second term have pulled a wide range of Americans into the political crosshairs, from National Parks Service workers to Social Security recipients to the transgender community.

"One of the miscalculations ... in their flood-the-zone strategy is when you flood the zone, you hit everyone," said Maurice Mitchell, the national director of the progressive Working Families Party.

This weekend, demonstrations occurred at Tesla showrooms across the country as part of the Tesla Takedown movement's "global day of action."

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Prebiotic sodas are popping off but their "gut-friendly" health claims deserve a closer look, Axios' Carly Mallenbaum reports.

• Why it matters: Most prebiotic sodas contain the fiber inulin, which experts say can be hard to digest and — according to early animal studies and a case study — potentially carcinogenic.

💰 By the numbers: U.S. sales of prebiotic soft drinks jumped from $33 million in January 2022, to $777 million in January 2025 — according to data NielsenIQ shared with Axios.

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The College Basketball Crown, a new postseason tournament, tips off its inaugural run in Las Vegas tomorrow with 16 men's teams, Axios' Analis Bailey reports.

• Sign of the times: $500,000 in name, image and likeness brand ambassador deals is on the line, making it one of the first postseason college basketball tournaments to explicitly tie team success to NIL cash.

How it works: Automatic bids were given to the top two teams from the Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East. A selection committee picked the rest.

• The field includes USC, Nebraska, Villanova, Arizona State, and Georgetown.

Madness update: Florida and Duke punched their Final Four tickets for the men's tournament. The other two teams will clinch tonight.

• The women's Final Four will be set by tomorrow night.