Former President Trump's surrogates, allies and foot soldiers appear supremely confident he'll win next week, projecting an air of inevitability inconsistent with what polls portray as a coin flip, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

• "We've never had data that looks this good," a longtime member of Trump's inner circle told Axios.

Why it matters: Trump could win, potentially in a landslide. So could Vice President Harris. Yet the MAGA universe largely refuses to entertain the latter outcome — priming Trump's base for mass distrust, disbelief and denial of a second straight election loss.

🖼️ The big picture: Like most partisan media, the pro-Trump echo chamber self-selects news, polls and predictions that point to a decisive victory for the former president on Nov. 5.

• Conservative media routinely downplay Trump's vulnerabilities — such as his racist rhetoric and his former chief of staff suggesting he's a "fascist" — while amplifying Harris' gaffes and bad polls.
• Pro-Trump X accounts with huge followings have triumphantly declared at various points during the campaign — most recently after Trump's McDonald's photo op and his appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast — that the election is "over."
• Some MAGA influencers exploit gullible followers by citing anonymous "DC insiders" or "White House officials" who allegedly say Harris' internal polling has collapsed — racking up thousands of reposts.

Between the lines: All of this — paired with the already rampant MAGA belief that Democrats "rig" elections — is setting the stage for a wholesale rejection of a potential Harris victory by Trump supporters.

• "[T]here is a real danger when media echo chambers falsely and knowingly tell half the country that their candidate is going to win," conservative writer Matt Lewis warned Monday.

At Trump's triumphant rally at New York's Madison Square Garden on Sunday, guest speaker Tucker Carlson captured the sort of conspiratorial thinking fostered by this bubble of hyper-confidence.

• "Ten days from now ... It's going to be pretty hard to look at us and say, 'You know what? Kamala Harris, she got 85 million votes because she's just so impressive,'" Carlson said mockingly.

🔎 Zoom in: Trump himself has falsely claimed that the only way he could lose the 2024 election is if Democrats "cheat," ignoring polls that show a margin-of-error race in all seven battleground states.

• "She's actually imploding, if you take a look, because look, I'm not supposed to say it, but we are leading by so much," Trump declared in Las Vegas last week.

Behind the scenes: Internal polls "have Trump doing well in all seven swing states. He's up, but still within the margin of error. They are right to project confidence for that reason," a source involved in the Trump campaign told Axios' Alex Thompson.

• "However, arrogance is how mistakes are made — such as the stupid f**king rally [on Sunday]," the source added, referring to the Madison Square Garden event.

👀 What to watch: There are signs the Trump campaign truly believes the former president is dominating the race — or at least wants the public to believe that in the final days before the election.

• Trump will campaign in New Mexico on Thursday and Salem, Va., on Saturday, venturing into Democratic-leaning territories where most forecasts don't think he has a chance.

Share this story ... Andrew Solender contributed reporting.

If he winds up losing the election, former President Trump already has lined up a scapegoat, Axios' Sophia Cai writes.

• Trump is making clear that he'll blame Michael Whatley, the Republican National Committee chair who Trump tasked with building the party's massive "election integrity" team.

Why it matters: Under Whatley, the RNC says it's amassed 200,000 poll watchers and poll workers across the country.

At a rally in North Carolina last month, Trump singled out Whatley, a former GOP chair in the state.

• "Where are you, Michael? Stand up. We're counting on this guy. I didn't take him from any other state. I took him right from here," Trump said.
• "So Michael, you better win or you're never going to be able to come back here. He doesn't win, he won't be at RNC and he will no longer be in North Carolina. He'll be looking for a job."

🔎 Behind the scenes: In private conversations with allies recently, Trump has said he believes the only reason he could lose the election is if Whatley drops the ball on "election integrity" issues.

• Keep reading.

Vice President Harris will use an optimistic "closing argument address" on the grassy Ellipse, with the White House as backdrop, at 7:30 p.m. ET tonight to send a visual, rhetorical and tonal message about the kind of president she'd be.

• Why it matters: With voters still saying they want to know Harris better, her aim is to help them visualize her in the Oval Office, a top adviser tells me.

The speech "will inform the last week of the campaign on the ground, on the air," the adviser said. Harris will promise to bring people together, reach outside Washington for the best ideas, build consensus and get things done.

• "She'll remind people who she is and where she comes from, and why she takes on big fights on behalf of consumers and anyone who is treated unfairly or overlooked," the adviser said.

The speech will be centered on Harris' vision for America and focus as president, contrasted with former President Trump's — continuing her new frame of her "to-do list" vs. his "enemies list."

• Harris will urge voters to "turn the page" on the Trump era. She'll pledge to put country and common ground above party and self.

🏛️ The Ellipse was chosen partly because it was the site of Trump's speech on Jan. 6 that incited supporters ahead of their attack on the Capitol.

• And the campaign sees it as symbolic of the good a president can do.

📺 MSNBC is promoting special coverage of Harris' speech, with pregame and postgame analysis shows. "We really hope that you're going to watch that speech with us," Rachel Maddow told her viewers last night.

Vice President Harris and former President Trump each have asked voters to consider their economic records, Axios Pro Rata author Dan Primack writes.

• Why it matters: It's almost impossible to do because the pandemic created a stack of financial dominoes that skewed the data.

Both campaigns have cherry-picked the answers, trying to have their cake and eat it too.

• Trump pretends as if the final 20% of his term never happened, while blaming Harris for inflation that was sparked by pandemic spending and supply chain disruptions. He was late in recognizing COVID's ferocity.
• Harris touts four years of economic gains without noting that her starting point was artificially low — and that the last round of stimulus might have been too big. She was late in recognizing inflation's stickiness.

Between the lines: COVID has been mostly memory-holed, even though it's the prism through which both candidates want themselves and the other to be judged.

The bottom line: Voters, including dealmakers, should pay more attention to each candidate's economic promises than to their economic résumés.

• Go deeper with Axios Pro Rata.

Former Trump's much-hyped rally in New York has become an own goal that's weighing on his campaign as it tries to sprint to next week's election, Axios' Erin Doherty writes.

• Why it matters: Republicans tried to stop the fallout from the racist, sexist and vulgar rhetoric by several rally speakers.

Democrats, Latino groups and others seized on a comedian's vulgar remarks — and the fact that Trump's campaign approved the speakers.

• Puerto Ricans are a growing part of the Latino electorate, particularly in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state.
• Latinos make up 6% of eligible voters there. People of Puerto Rican descent make up about 3.8% of the state's population.

Keep reading.

Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos tried to put out a firestorm last night with an op-ed defending the 11th-hour decision to kill an endorsement of Vice President Harris — but the damage has been done, Axios' Sara Fischer writes.

• Why it matters: 200,000+ people canceled their Post subscriptions after Friday's announcement, NPR reports. Three members of the 10-person editorial board — David Hoffman, Molly Roberts and Mili Mitra — left the board but are staying at the paper in other roles. (Hoffman's statement.)

Between the lines: The Post's situation is especially chaotic, given Bezos' role as a billionaire business leader whose companies rely on billions of dollars' worth of government contracts.

• Bezos, who bought The Post in 2013, aggressively defended himself: "I challenge you to find one instance in those 11 years where I have prevailed upon anyone at The Post in favor of my own interests. It hasn't happened. ... I would also like to be clear that no quid pro quo of any kind is at work here."
• The L.A. Times is also facing resignations and subscription cancellations for pulling a Harris endorsement ahead of the election.

📰 Breaking: USA Today also won't endorse for president. Gannett, the paper's parent, said in a statement to Axios: "[L]ocal editors at publications across the USA TODAY Network have the discretion to endorse at a state or local level. Many have decided not to endorse individual candidates, but rather, endorse key local and state issues on the ballot that impact the community."

• Read Bezos' op-ed (gift link) ... Get Axios Media Trends.

The 2024 American Opportunity Index, released yesterday, finds that 60% of large employers decreased promotion opportunities last year.

• Most companies also failed to increase hiring of early-career and non-college workers.

How it works: The index (charted above) rates America's 250 largest public companies on who's doing the best job of helping their workers get ahead.

• This year's ranking "measures the career trajectories of nearly 5.4 million employees at 395 of America's largest companies using independent data."
• The project is a collaboration of the Burning Glass Institute, the Schultz Family Foundation and the Managing the Future of Work Project at Harvard Business School.

See the top 100 ... Explore the index.

Throngs of tourists are flocking to Salem, Mass., this week to party, connect and embrace the macabre aesthetic that's the cornerstone of the Halloween season, Axios Boston's Mike Deehan writes.

• Why it matters: Salem's focus on confronting a difficult history — teamed with clever marketing — has made Salem the country's go-to spot for Halloween revels.

Salem got its witchy reputation thanks to the very real 1692 hysteria in which Puritan townspeople turned against one another and executed 20 of their neighbors.

• The 1980s saw the town confront the past and reinvent itself into a tourist destination with a unique cultural brand.
• Now 1.2 million visitors are expected to visit Salem this month.

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