Axios AM

June 28, 2024
Happy Friday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,491 words ... 5½ mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Copy edited by Bryan McBournie.
1 big thing: Biden age bomb

ATLANTA — President Biden's debate performance triggered a meltdown of epic proportions last night, uniting Democrats of all stripes — optimists and bedwetters — in a state of unprecedented panic, Axios' Zachary Basu, Alex Thompson and Hans Nichols write.
- Why it matters: On the biggest stage in politics — with rules and a date specifically requested by the Biden campaign — Biden amplified voters' gravest fears.
🖼️ The big picture: This is history. It'll be talked about for generations. It will replace Richard Nixon sweating in 1960 as the most disastrous performance in a televised debate. And that's the view of Democrats.
- Yes, Biden had some good moments. Yes, he can blame his soft, sandy voice on a cold. But you can't spin away how old he looked, how haltingly he spoke, how often he tripped over words.
Biden is 81 and former President Trump turned 78 this month. The age difference looked much vaster.
- Trump spewed falsehoods and defended the rioters who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6.
🗞️ Biden's obvious frailty, rambling answers and constant gaffes led N.Y. Times columnist Nick Kristof to declare: "I hope he reviews his debate performance Thursday evening and withdraws from the race, throwing the choice of a Democratic nominee to the convention in August."
- The Times' Tom Friedman, one of Biden's favorite columnists, wrote that the debate made him weep: "Joe Biden, a good man and a good president, has no business running for re-election." The headline: "He Must Bow Out of the Race."
🔎 Zoom in: With breathtaking speed, private discussions about Biden's expected performance against Trump went from optimism to shock — and even questions about whether Biden could continue his campaign.
- A "disaster," a former Biden administration official called it.
- "It's sad. But it also makes me so mad to think of all the smart people lying and trying to make this work," a former Biden White House official told us.
"Catastrophe ... Unimaginably bad ... It's Waterloo," an influential Democratic campaign veteran texted me during the debate.
- "DEFCON 1 moment," David Plouffe, former President Obama's campaign manager, said on MSNBC. "The concern level is quite high."

The intrigue: It was the Biden campaign that pushed for the earliest general-election debate in presidential history. Trump just accepted the terms CNN had hammered out with Biden's camp — including no studio audience, and mikes that muted when it was the other guy's turn.
- Biden "was over-prepared and relying on minutiae when all that mattered was vigor and energy," a person in the president's orbit told Axios. "They prepared him for the wrong debate. He was over-prepared when what he needed was rest. It's confounding."
🤧 A source close to Biden tells me had a cold, but tested negative for COVID.
2. 💣 Push to boot Biden

Congressional Democrats told us that Biden on the ticket would cost them seats in November.
- "Democrats were imagining scenarios in which party elders like Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina were to intervene with Mr. Biden," the N.Y. Times' Peter Baker reports.
Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report tweeted: "This debate making abundantly clear that Biden's insistence on running for another term — when 66% of voters in our swing state poll believe it's likely he won't be able to finish a second term — has gravely jeopardized Dems' prospects to defeat Trump."

👀 What we're watching: If Biden were to leave the race, ambitious Democrats would have a very compressed calendar to make their case to be the party's nominee. The party's divisions would play out in the open.
- Many Democrats privately question Vice President Harris' ability to connect with voters. But it's unlikely the party would pass over the first Black and woman vice president.
3. 💡 Debate takeaways

1. Biden's slow start
- Panic set in among Democrats when Biden froze during an answer just minutes into the debate. Trump was quick to capitalize on Biden's stumbles: "I really don't know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don't think he knows what he said either."
- Biden found his footing later in the debate, landing shots on Trump for bragging about the end of Roe v. Wade and leaving behind a COVID-wrecked economy.
2. Format favored Trump
- After attacking CNN all week over the debate's rules, Trump appeared unusually measured on stage — perhaps benefiting from the lack of an audience and mic cuts that shut off his ability to interrupt Biden.
- The split-screen broadcast wasn't kind to Biden, who often stared during Trump's answers with his mouth agape. Trump smirked when his opponent stumbled over his words.
- The moderators, CNN's Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, didn't fact-check either candidate in real-time — allowing Trump to make at least 30 false claims and Biden to make nine, according to a post-debate CNN analysis.
3. Bizarro world takes over
- In a striking reminder of just how unusual this election is, Biden rattled off a list of Trump's alleged crimes and civil liabilities, including his felony conviction.
- "You have the morals of an alley cat," Biden shot at Trump, to which the former president responded: "I didn't have sex with a porn star."
- Toward the end, the two men sparred over their golf handicaps — culminating in Trump urging his foe: "Let's not act like children." Biden shot back: "You are a child."
The bottom line: A new YouGov poll found that in a blind test, Biden's policy proposals were far more popular than Trump's.
- For many Democrats, Biden's debate debacle confirmed that their biggest problem isn't their message — but their messenger.
4. 📺 Harris does midnight cleanup

Vice President Kamala Harris admitted President Biden had a "slow start" but said he had "a strong finish" as she went on CNN and MSNBC from Los Angeles amid their funereal post-debate panels.
- Why it matters: Harris won effusive praise on both networks as making a more effective case in less than 10 minutes than Biden did in 90, Axios' Erin Doherty writes.
"People can debate on style points. But, ultimately, this election and who is the president of the United States has to be about substance and the contrast is clear," Harris said during a testy CNN interview.
- She connected the "Joe Biden I know" to his record in office, citing his strengthening of NATO and creation of manufacturing jobs.
"It was a slow start — that's obvious to everyone," Harris told CNN, before pivoting: "I'm talking about the choice in November."
- "I'm not going to spend all night with you talking about the last 90 minutes when I've been watching the last 3½ years of performance."
On NBC, Biden campaign co-chair Mitch Landrieu said Biden "started off slow, but then he came back."
5. 📈 New data: Latinos drive U.S. growth


Latinos accounted for more than 70% of the overall growth of the U.S. population between 2022 and 2023 — driven mainly by high Hispanic birth rates, Axios' Russell Contreras writes from new census estimates.
- Why it matters: The explosive growth confirms what many demographers have been predicting. The U.S. is becoming less white and more Latino and Asian American as the nation gets closer to the 250th anniversary of its founding.
6. 🖼️ Tale of two covers
Two covers for the new issue of The Economist capture the stunning political changes that will wash over France and Britain in the next two weeks.
7. 🔋 Charted: Rivian's boost


VW's $5 billion deal with Rivian is boosting the EV startup's share price — though it's still down for the year, Axios Generate co-author Ben Geman writes.
- Why it matters: The battle for the EV future pits legacy automakers against swashbuckling (if cash-strapped) startups. The new VW-Rivian tie-up suggests a third way forward.
VW plans an initial investment of $1 billion in the startup, which makes SUVs and pickups for the consumer market and supplies vans to Amazon.
8. 🏀 1 hoop thing: LeBron + Bronny

Bronny James — LeBron's oldest son — was drafted by the L.A. Lakers last night, setting up the first father-son duo to play at the same time in NBA history.
- Why it matters: LeBron James has been extremely vocal that playing on the same team as his son would be a dream come true. He tends to get what he wants.

Bronny James, age 19, was taken as the No. 55 overall pick, deep in the second round and with only three picks remaining in this year's draft.
- It's a stunning moment made possible by LeBron's longevity. Next season, he'll turn 40, and match Vince Carter for the longest career as an NBA player.
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