This election year could be turned on its head by an international crisis — and it won't necessarily come from the Middle East, Axios' Dave Lawler writes.

• Why it matters: The war in Gaza is dominating coverage. But the past few days have been peppered with warning signs from other global hotspots: Taiwan, North Korea, Ukraine and Iran.

🌏 The big picture: Global alliances have shifted over the past few years. China and Russia — joined by other autocracies — have deepened a partnership heavily focused on challenging America and the West.

• Snapshots of that competition are popping up all over the world: Pacific Island countries being aggressively courted by Beijing and Washington. African nations booting the U.S. and welcoming Russia. Chinese President Xi Jinping visiting Europe for the first time in five years.
• Then there are the much-feared scenarios that could see the "new cold war" with autocratic powers turn hot: A Chinese move on Taiwan. Escalation by Russia beyond Ukraine. North Korean brinkmanship. A nuclear crisis with Iran.

Zoom in: None of those appear imminent. But the past week showed they all remain plausible:

🇹🇼 1. China has conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan in the week since a proponent of close ties with Washington was inaugurated as president.

• It's part of a pattern of intimidation that some experts and officials see as a prelude to eventual invasion.

🇷🇺 2. Russian troops are clawing back territory in eastern Ukraine and menacing the country's second-largest city, Kharkiv, in Moscow's most significant battlefield successes in more than a year.

• President Biden is facing growing pressure from NATO allies to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-provided weapons to strike inside Russia.

🇰🇵 3. A North Korean spy satellite exploded in a failed rocket launch Monday. U.S. officials are expecting more, potentially serious, provocations this year from Kim Jong-un.

• The U.S. is also watching Kim's burgeoning partnership with Vladimir Putin.

🇮🇷 4. Iran has increased stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium, the UN's nuclear watchdog warned Monday.

• The country's upcoming presidential election to replace Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash, comes amid fears of a clash with Israel.

What to watch: Israel's escalation in Rafah poses a major test for President Biden and his foreign policy team. Fellow Democrats are urging him to withdraw military support after an Israeli strike killed 45 displaced Palestinians.

• Keep reading.

President Biden is kicking off an effort to regain ground among Black voters with a visit to Philadelphia today — including a rally at a majority-Black school, with Vice President Harris by his side, Axios' Hans Nichols writes.

• Why it matters: Polling shows a lack of enthusiasm for Biden among Black voters. A recent New York Times/Sienna survey put Biden at 69%–18% over Trump with Black voters.

Flashback: Biden ran up even bigger margins — 92%–8% — with Black voters as part of his winning coalition against former President Trump in 2020.

Biden's new plan will include Black student organizations, community groups, churches and surrogates.

💰 First on Axios: Addressing the roots of Black economic inequality has the potential to unlock as much as $1 trillion per year in domestic U.S. economic growth, Axios' Javier David writes from a new study by the Black Economic Alliance Foundation. Keep reading.

The hush-money case against former President Trump will go to the jury today, after Judge Juan Merchan delivers jury instructions.

• Why it matters: The country will soon find out whether Trump will be the first former president who's a convicted felon — or be freed from 34 of the 91 felony counts he faces in four cases.

An inpatient Trump, the lawyers and the media will stay in the courtroom as the jury deliberates.

• If the 12 jurors can't reach a unanimous decision, the trial could end in a mistrial.

This is the only Trump trial likely to conclude before voters head to the polls.

Above: During a break yesterday, Trump posted his opinion of the prosecution's closing argument.

The defense's closing argument ran nearly three hours. The prosecution went more than five hours, finishing just before 8 p.m. ET.

• Riffing on GOAT, the sports acronym for "greatest of all time," Trump lawyer Todd Blanche labeled Michael Cohen the GLOAT — "greatest liar of all time ... the human embodiment of reasonable doubt." Blanche said there's "not a shred of evidence" Trump falsified business records. (AP)
• Prosecutor Joshua Steinglass accused Trump of "chutzpah": "Everything Mr. Trump and his cohorts did in this case was cloaked in lies. ... We'll never know if this effort to hoodwink voters made the difference in the 2016 election, but that's not something we have to prove." (NYT)

Keep reading.

Five of the 10 busiest American airport travel days have occurred in the past two weeks, according to TSA screening data.

• A record 2.95 million travelers were screened at airports on Friday.

The previous record, since the TSA was founded in 2001, was set last Thanksgiving. 9 of the top 10 days took place in the past 12 months.

This graphic, by Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Consulting, shows a record-high percentage of voters think America is "on the wrong track."

• "Perceived disorder is driving discontent," Mehlman says in the latest of his famous slide decks. "American voters sense things are out of control."

Why it matters: If you're in charge — a Democrat in the White House, or a Republican in the House majority — your job is obviously in danger.

💡 Between the lines: Mehlman points out that "wrong track" has grown under the last three presidents — Obama, Trump and Biden.

• "So it's less ... based on who's in the White House and [more] driven by larger forces," Mehlman told me.
• Those include "the disruption caused by accelerating 21st century technology," plus "geopolitical and cultural changes in a world whose policies, parties and institutions were designed in the 20th century."

Go deeper: See Bruce's 30-slide deck, "Referend-HIM! The 'Not It' Election."

AI's potential to reshape the American job market and boost productivity in the decades ahead could result in a widening economic divide with Europe, Axios Macro co-author Courtenay Brown writes.

• Why it matters: The U.S. and Europe are on divergent paths for generative AI adoption, according to a new paper by the McKinsey Global Institute. That's predictable, given that most of the technology has come from Silicon Valley.

Europe has typically moved more cautiously with all kinds of tech innovations, regulating them more heavily amid worries about labor-displacing technology.

State of play: U.S. productivity has boomed, which doesn't have much to do with AI adoption. The rest of the world hasn't kept up.

• "It's just mind-boggling that productivity [growth] in the United States between 2019 and now has been 6%. In Europe, 0.6%," European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said last month.

Keep reading.

Major League Baseball will announce today that it's adding statistics from the Negro Leagues to the MLB historical record, Axios' Russell Contreras writes.

• Why it matters: Negro League players who were barred from MLB during segregation, but called greats by those who saw them, will hold some of baseball's most prominent records.

The intrigue: Negro Leagues legend Josh Gibson will become MLB's single-season and career record holder in batting average (.466 in 1943 and .372 career).

• The career record broke Ty Cobb's .367 mark that has stood since his retirement in 1928.

Keep reading.

Drones towing aerial advertisements will soon begin flying over Miami's beaches — competing for airspace with traditional banner planes, Axios' Martin Vassolo writes.

• Why it matters: Miami-based Sustainable Skylines says its hybrid-electric drones are quieter, safer and more eco-friendly than gas-powered planes.

The drones will fly lower to bring ads closer to the public. But CEO Jacob Stonecipher says the ads shouldn't bother beachgoers.

• The company, which hopes to launch its service in July, is the first drone-based banner hauler to be approved by the FAA, Stonecipher tells Axios.

Keep reading ... Get Axios Local.