In less than a month, TikTok could be banned in the U.S. — and the fate of a multibillion-dollar creator economy is at stake, Axios' Erica Pandey writes.

• Why it matters: The global influencer industry is worth about $250 billion, Goldman Sachs estimates. TikTok is where the big money is, and where many influencers have built their largest and most loyal followings.

For many influencers, "this could be an extinction-level event," says James Nord, founder and CEO of Fohr, an influencer marketing company.

⚖️ Driving the news: The Supreme Court will hear arguments Jan. 10 over whether the law to force a sale of TikTok from its parent company or face a ban is constitutional, Axios' Maria Curi notes.

• TikTok is racing against the clock with a Jan. 19 ban looming.

What we're watching: Lawmakers have told Google and Apple to be ready to remove TikTok from their U.S. app stores on Jan. 19.

• People who have already downloaded TikTok can keep using it for some time, but it will no longer update, making the app buggy and eventually useless.

Zoom out: TikTok has a stunning 170 million users in the U.S., but according to a Pew Research Center survey, just 32% of Americans support a ban.

• But lawmakers and experts have identified national security reasons to restrict the app as long as it holds its connection to China, including the spread of misinformation and espionage.

📱 Zoom in: Some TikTok personalities are attempting to get ahead of the ban by asking followers to find them on Instagram or YouTube.

• "I don't think there's longevity on this app in the United States," Chris Burkett, a lifestyle influencer with 1.3 million TikTok followers, said in a video urging people to follow him on Instagram.
• "There's been so many false alarms ... Anyways, I very much do exist on another place ... so if you want to keep in touch," Audrey Peters, a fashion and beauty influencer with a million followers, said in a video.

🥊 Reality check: Many influencers' Instagram or YouTube followings are orders of magnitude smaller than their TikTok audiences.

• Many don't even have large enough followings on those other platforms to get brand deals or make money from content.

What's next: If TikTok is banned and eventually becomes obsolete, the influencers who relied on it for income likely won't get unemployment or other benefits.

• "This could be unique in that I don't know if there's been a law since prohibition that will shut down so many small businesses overnight," Nord says. "And as of now, the government is not offering any support."

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PHOENIX — Five hundred fans of Charlie Kirk — the 31-year-old founder and CEO of Turning Point USA, the MAGA-verse's biggest outside group — broke into applause yesterday as Kirk welcomed former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) to the stage for a taping of "The Charlie Kirk Show" podcast, Mike reports.

• "I wish they were all members of the United States Senate," Gaetz joshed, a month after withdrawing as President-elect Trump's choice for attorney general, and with release expected imminently of a House Ethics Committee report on his conduct.
• "I think they want you to be pope!" Kirk quipped.
• "I'm a Baptist!" Gaetz replied.

Why it matters: Kirk is one of the biggest winners of November's election who wasn't on the ballot. He'll introduce Trump today as the climactic guest of Turning Point's annual AmericaFest. This year's victory-lap edition is a triumphalist, four-day MAGAstock that drew 21,000 Trump diehards, many in college, to the desert the weekend before Christmas.

🥊 Kirk, who caught snippets of college football playoff games backstage, is the boyish, often controversial leader of a MAGA army that will:

1. Bring grassroots pressure on Republican senators to confirm all Trump nominees. "Confirm the Mandate" is how Turning Point Action, Kirk's political arm, puts it.
2. Insist GOP lawmakers toe the Trump line. In a tectonic change for the right, Turning Point is happy to be as combative with Republicans as with Democrats.
3. Push Trumpers nationwide to act on Elon Musk's insistence, which Kirk repeated onstage, that everyday users of X "are the media now."

🎧 Between the lines: It's all backed by a vast network of friendly podcasts, dozens of which taped on elaborate sets that sometimes even include teleprompters. "Media Row" is actually two huge wings of the Phoenix Convention Center atrium.

• Kirk is close to Trump, Vice President-elect Vance, Don Jr. and Tucker Carlson. During the election, Turning Point Action launched a high-risk, high-reward "Chase the Vote" turnout operation for Trump — and won big.
• Kirk has become one of the most popular pitchmen for products aimed at "patriots": "Use promo code KIRK today." At the Gaetz taping, audience members had to show proof of membership in "Charlie Kirk Exclusive," the podcast's paid tier.

🧮 By the numbers: Turning Point — which also holds a Student Action Summit, a Young Women's Leadership Summit and a Pastors Summit — tells Axios this weekend's AmFest is the group's largest-ever multiday event, with 6,000 students among the 21,000 attendees.

• Turning Point Action staged massive Trump rallies during the campaign, including co-hosting the 20,000-person RFK Jr. endorsement event in Glendale, Ariz., in August, and drawing 16,000 in Duluth, Ga., and 18,000 in Vegas in the campaign's closing two weeks.
• Turning Point USA has 1,000+ college chapters and 1,200 high school chapters.

Share this story ... Videos of 51 AmFest speakers ... Roster of speakers.

Many in the meatpacking industry were happy to see Donald Trump reelected — but are also fearful it won't be able to operate without the workers he may try to deport.

• Why it matters: Meatpacking, more than almost any other industry in this country, relies on foreign-born labor, whether documented or not. It would face critical challenges if those workers disappeared due to mass deportations, Axios' Ben Berkowitz, Alayna Alvarez, Worth Sparkman and Zachery Eanes report.

Yet meat-related interests overwhelmingly supported Trump financially in 2024, knowing the potential risks to their business.

🔎 Zoom in: One oft-cited estimate suggests that 30% to 50% of all laborers in the meatpacking industry are undocumented. Producers will dispute that, but no one disagrees that the industry relies on migrant labor.

• "This is a decision by the industry. It's a wink and a nod — this is how they can keep labor costs down," says Debbie Berkowitz, a fellow at the Kalmanovitz Initiative at Georgetown and former OSHA chief of staff.

Zoom out: Trump's team has said their deportation program would (first) target criminals (though an Axios review found that to be a relatively small number.)

• The transition, asked about any plans for undocumented meatpacking workers, reiterated its intent to target "illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers" in a statement to Axios.

👀 But those who work with undocumented laborers say the mere sight of deportations could have a domino effect.

• That could be enough to tip the industry into crisis, as workers flee or stop showing up to work, even if plants aren't being raided.

Another industry at risk is home health and long-term care, both of which rely on a substantial number of immigrants and undocumented workers, Axios' Tina Reed writes.

• Between 2021 and 2031, the long-term care sector will need to fill 9.3 million openings as demand grows and workers exit the field, according to PHI, a research group that studies care workers.

The American Immigration Council estimates more than a third of home health aides in the U.S. are immigrants. In California, New York and New Jersey, at least 40% of the caregiving workforce is estimated to be foreign-born.

• More on meatpacking ... More on caregivers.

Hanukkah begins this year on Christmas Day, which has only happened four times since 1900.

• Why it matters: For some rabbis, the intersection of the two religious holidays provides an auspicious occasion for interfaith engagement, AP reports.

The last time Hanukkah began on Christmas Day was in 2005.

• But the term "Chrismukkah" — signifying the overlap of the two holidays — had become a popular term before then. The term gained currency in 2003, when the character Seth Cohen on the TV drama "The O.C." embraced the fusion holiday as a tribute to his Jewish father and Protestant mother.

Democratic voters are far more likely to reduce time with family due to political differences compared to Republicans and independents, Axios' Russell Contreras writes from a new Public Religion Research Institute survey.

• Democrats (23%) are almost five times as likely as Republicans (5%) to say they'll spend less time with certain family members because of their political views.

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From BBQ joints in Tokyo to "Texas-style" steakhouses and bars draped in Lone Star memorabilia, the Texas brand is thriving in Japan, Axios Dallas' Gregory Castillo reports.

• Why it matters: It's not just cultural crossover. Economic ties between the two powerhouses are stronger than ever, with billions of dollars in trade and a surge in direct travel connecting the two.

✈️ By the numbers: Flights from Houston to Japan are up 25% from 2019, Houston Airports tells Axios.

• Japan is Texas' fifth-largest trade partner, with $31.2 billion in trade last year.

The intrigue: While Texans flock to Japan, Japan is embracing Texas.

• Tokyo's Little Texas bar is a shrine to Texan culture, with walls covered in cowboy hats, Buc-ee's merch and memorabilia.
• In 2011, then-Gov. Rick Perry named owners Takeshi and Natsuco Yoshino honorary Texans. That declaration is proudly displayed behind the bar.

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Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and James Lankford (R-Okla.) compared U.S. political polarization and fatigue to family dynamics in an interview that aired on NBC's "Meet the Press" this morning.

• The big picture: The comments from the only two ordained ministers in the Senate come as the nation grapples with a divisive post-election ideological divide, Axios' Sareen Habeshian writes.

Zoom in: Warnock said bipartisan work "is as basic as the American covenant."

• Asked how lawmakers can reach across the aisle, Lankford said he believes most people don't identify first with their parties but rather as human beings and neighbors. The question, he said, is how to get "people who disagree [to] sit down and figure it out? That's where we are. ... We're supposed to figure out how to solve problems."

Video of full interview.

A Christmas tree greets visitors to the office of Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) at the Capitol in Washington.