Prepping for the end of TikTok
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
In less than a month, TikTok could be banned in the U.S. — and the fate of a multibillion-dollar creator economy is at stake.
Why it matters: The global influencer industry is worth about $250 billion, Goldman Sachs estimates. TikTok is where the big money is, and where many influencers have built their largest and most loyal followings.
For many influencers, “this could be an extinction-level event,” says James Nord, founder and CEO of Fohr, an influencer marketing company.
Driving the news: The Supreme Court will hear arguments on Jan. 10 over whether the law to force a sale of TikTok from its parent company or face a ban is constitutional, Axios' Maria Curi notes.
- TikTok is racing against the clock with a Jan. 19 ban looming.
Lawmakers have told Google and Apple to be ready to remove it from their U.S. app stores on Jan. 19.
- People who have already downloaded TikTok can keep using it for some time, but it will no longer update, making the app buggy and eventually useless.
Zoom out: TikTok has a stunning 170 million users in the U.S., and just 32% of Americans support a ban, according to a Pew Research Center survey.
- But lawmakers and experts have identified national security reasons to restrict the app as long as it holds its connection to China, including the spread of misinformation and espionage.
Zoom in: Some TikTok personalities are attempting to get ahead of the ban by asking followers to find them on Instagram or YouTube.
- "I don't think there's longevity on this app in the United States," Chris Burkett, a lifestyle influencer with 1.3 million TikTok followers, said in a video urging people to follow him on Instagram.
- "There's been so many false alarms ... Anyways, I very much do exist on another place ... so if you want to keep in touch," Audrey Peters, a fashion and beauty influencer with a million followers, said in a video.
But for many others and the brands they work with, business is humming along as usual. “Everything’s kind of going status quo. Contracts are still moving,” Nord says.
- Just 1 in 3 beauty influencers said they were somewhat or very worried about a ban in an October Fohr survey. “It’s a product of them talking about this for so many years but it not happening,” says Nord.
- In some contracts, brands and influencers are agreeing to work together on Instagram if TikTok goes away, but that’s an imperfect strategy.
Reality check: Many influencers’ Instagram or YouTube followings are orders of magnitude smaller than their TikTok audiences.
- Many don’t even have large enough followings on those other platforms to get brand deals or make money from content.
Case in point: Fohr analyzed the TikTok and Instagram accounts of nearly 23,000 creators in its network.
- 39% of them had more followers on TikTok than on Instagram, and the average difference in number of followers was +182,000 on TikTok.
What's next: If TikTok is banned and eventually becomes obsolete, the influencers who relied on it for income likely won't get unemployment or other benefits.
- “This could be unique in that I don’t know if there’s been a law since prohibition that will shut down so many small businesses overnight,” Nord says. “And as of now, the government is not offering any support.”
