President Trump, in terms of raw accomplishments, crushed his first six months in historic ways. Massive tax cuts. Record-low border crossings. Surging tariff revenue. Stunning air strikes in Iran. Modest inflation.

• Yet poll after poll suggests most Americans aren't impressed. In fact, they seem tired of all the winning, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

Why it matters: Trump appears to be losing by winning. The more he does (including issues beyond his legislative wins), the more the general public, especially independents, shrug — or recoil.

• This paradox is unfolding in what could be the very best chapter of his presidency, before tariffs push prices higher or midterms pose risks to his GOP majorities.
• And it's being aggravated by the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, which has exposed rare cracks in Trump's decade-old MAGA movement.

What the polls say: One poll is meaningless. But a bunch of credible polls, showing the same thing, are worth paying attention to. And almost all of them show big majorities opposed to provisions of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" ... and harsh immigration crackdown ... and high tariffs ... and pardons for Jan. 6 convicts ... and wild improvisation with Russia.

• Trump was underwater (more unpopular than popular) on issue after issue in a CBS News/YouGov poll out Sunday, with broad disapproval on his handling of the economy: 70% of those polled said his administration wasn't doing enough to lower prices, and 61% said it was putting too much focus on tariffs.

On the administration's deportations of immigrants in the U.S. illegally, the CBS News/YouGov poll found overall support dropping 10 points over the past five months (59% to 49%). The GOP base remains overwhelmingly supportive, but a CNN poll found a 10-point increase (45% to 55%) in U.S. adults who say Trump has gone too far on deportations.

• Some Trump advisers believe the deportations are more popular than polls reflect, based on some people's unwillingness to tell pollsters their true views on the issue.

On Trump's megabill, an AP-NORC poll found more adults think the new tax and spending law will benefit the wealthy (64%) than think it helps the middle class or "people like you" (51% each). The percentage who approved of Trump's handling of government spending (38%) was down 8 points from March.

• Trump's handling of the Epstein case presents the latest — and so far greatest — threat to his public image: A new YouGov poll gave Trump a net rating of -34, his worst on any major issue this term. The backlash has dragged on for more than three weeks, fueled by Trump's escalating conflict with his own MAGA base.

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Buyer's remorse appears especially concentrated among Gen Z voters, whose extraordinary shift toward Trump in 2024 spawned existential panic inside the Democratic Party, Jim and Mike continue.

• Trump's net approval rating among 18- to 29-year-olds has plummeted to -40 since inauguration, down from roughly even, according to pollster G. Elliott Morris.

🥊 Reality check: Unhappiness with Trump hasn't turned into popularity for Democrats. In a CNN poll out last week, just 28% of Americans had a favorable view of the Democratic Party — the low point in more than 30 years of CNN polling.

• Basically, everyone dislikes everyone and everything.

Between the lines: Some of Trump's unpopularity reflects the law of thermostatic public opinion — voters demand change, then flinch when it arrives too fast or too hard, Axios' Zachary Basu notes.

• Take immigration: With the border having gone quiet, scrutiny has turned to Trump's interior crackdown and the deportation of non-criminal migrants — including hundreds of thousands of noncitizens who are here legally and have lived in the U.S. for years.
• MAGA hardliners may love the public spectacle of "Alligator Alcatraz." But for many middle-ground voters — as exemplified by podcaster Joe Rogan — the optics are too much to stomach.

In other cases, Trump set lofty expectations that haven't been met.

• The war in Ukraine, which Trump promised to end within 24 hours of taking office, rages on. So does the war in Gaza. And in a remarkable break with isolationist allies, Trump joined forces with Israel last month to bomb Iran's nuclear program.
• His pledge to "rapidly drive prices down" has also hit roadblocks: Inflation ticked up in June, complicating the Fed's path to rate cuts even before a new era of global tariffs kicks in next month.
• Trump's botched promise not to touch Medicaid could haunt the GOP for years: 10 million people are projected to lose health coverage over the next decade because of the megabill's steep cuts to federal health spending, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
• CBO says that over the next decade, the megabill is expected to add at least $3 trillion to the national debt that Republicans once cared so much about.

👀 Behind the scenes: In private, Trump gripes about not getting sufficient credit for defying expectations and historic norms. He's imposing his will on the nation — yet the media and even MAGA fixate on the blemishes. But what if his ideas are authentically unpopular?

• A longtime Trump adviser told us the president's view is: Why don't they trust me? What more can I do?

What to watch: Trump aides are making extensive plans to showcase popular parts of the megabill — notably tax-cut extensions, plus new tax deductions for tips and overtime, and auto-interest loans for new vehicles assembled in the U.S.

• But Republicans are having trouble selling the package's popular provisions because the Epstein saga has taken over. House Republicans tell Axios' Alex Isenstadt their constituents are fixated on Epstein, not the bill.

The bottom line: Trump advisers tell us that what will matter for the long run is how the economy is treating everyday Americans when it comes time for midterm voting in 2026, and the choice of Trump's successor in 2028.

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The Trump administration's sweeping "transparency" crusade has electrified MAGA loyalists eager to see "Deep State" officials and Jeffrey Epstein's alleged clients paraded to prison, Axios' Tal Axelrod writes.

• Now, some of President Trump's most prominent supporters say he must deliver to maintain that unity.

Why it matters: Under pressure for his handling of the Epstein case, Trump is taking a big swing at MAGA's biggest bogeymen — the supposed cabal of shadowy elites who run the country, along with its army of unelected government bureaucrats.

• The president raised the stakes yesterday, declaring in the Oval Office that former President Obama and other ex-officials must be prosecuted. "Whether it's right or wrong, it's time to go after people," Trump said.
• Trump's allegations of "treason" stemming from the 2016 Russia investigation drew a rare response from Obama's office, which rejected the claims as "outrageous" and "bizarre."

🔎 Zoom in: MAGA's expectations are stratospheric. Failure to land anyone behind bars could be seen as a betrayal — a break from the "promises made, promises kept" mantra that has defined Trump's relationship with his base.

• "If you tell the base of people, who support you, of deep state treasonous crimes, election interference, blackmail, and rich powerful elite evil cabals, then you must take down every enemy of The People," Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) posted Monday.
• "If not," she warned, "the base will turn and there's no going back."

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The news outlets that AI chatbots cite most include Reuters, the Financial Times, TIME, Axios, Forbes and AP, Axios Communicators author Eleanor Hawkins writes from a Muck Rack report out this morning.

• The report analyzes more than 1 million links cited by OpenAI's ChatGPT, Google's Gemini and Anthropic's Claude in response to queries in July.

💡 The report found Claude uses media outlets the least, and is more likely to pull from academic, federal and technical sources.

• ChatGPT is the heaviest user of news citations, pulling from mainstream publications including Reuters, AP, FT, TIME and Axios.
• Gemini pulls from news sources but also regularly cites Wikipedia, Coursera, Quora and Google's sister platform YouTube.

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President Trump said last night that the U.S. notched a trade agreement with Japan that would put 15% tariffs on all goods imported from one of the nation's key trade partners, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes.

• Why it matters: A U.S.-Japan trade deal would be the most significant since the White House threatened to impose sharply higher tariffs on much of the globe.

Trump wrote on Truth Social that Japan would "open their Country to Trade including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products and other things."

• He said that Japan would invest $550 billion in the U.S., which will "receive 90% of the Profits." Trump did not specify what form such an investment would take.

Between the lines: The 15% rate is lower than the 25% tariff that the White House threatened in a letter sent to Japanese officials earlier this month, which would have taken effect on Aug. 1 if no deal was reached.

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OpenAI is finding that financing and building the massive data centers it needs to meet its ambitions is easier said than done, Axios AI+ author Ina Fried writes.

• Why it matters: There's no limit on AI builders' hunger for computing capacity.

🔬 Zoom in: The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that OpenAI has run into conflicts and stumbles in its relationship with SoftBank, a key partner in its effort to dramatically scale up its access to computing capacity.

• The companies pledged in January to immediately invest $100 billion. But no specific deals have been inked yet and near-term ambitions have been scaled back, the Journal reports.

In a memo to employees seen by Axios, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman acknowledged that the company's thirst for computing is "starting to strain the supply chain" and will "require some real creativity."

• Altman reassured employees that additional capacity is coming sooner rather than later.

OpenAI announced an expansion of its work with Oracle yesterday that includes additional capacity at a data center project already under development in Abilene, Texas.

• Keep reading.

Nutrition leaders have this to say about Coca-Cola's decision to launch a U.S. product made with cane sugar: It won't make America healthier, Axios' Maya Goldman writes.

• Coca-Cola announced without giving details: "As part of its ongoing innovation agenda, this fall in the United States, the company plans to launch an offering made with U.S. cane sugar to expand its Trademark Coca-Cola product range."

The big picture: Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may be correct that high-fructose corn syrup is a driver of obesity and other chronic diseases. But alternatives like sugar cane and beet sugar also lead to weight gain and bad outcomes.

• "These one-ingredient changes don't make these foods healthy," said Marion Nestle, professor emeritus of nutrition and public health at New York University. "They're not going to make any difference unless they change the dietary intake of what people are eating."

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Fans watch the Kansas City Chiefs' first training camp practice yesterday at Missouri Western State University in St. Joseph, Mo. — about an hour north of the team's stadium.

• Kansas City is one of six teams — the Bills, Cowboys, Colts, Chiefs, Rams and Steelers — who spend their entire camp away from their home facilities.

Go deeper: ESPN's training camp previews.