Axios AM

August 20, 2025
🐫 Happy Wednesday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,988 words ... 7½ mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Copy edited by Bryan McBournie.
⚾ ESPN, which last month bought NFL Network, is now expected to snap up MLB.TV, baseball's out-of-market streaming package, reports Yahoo Sports' Kendall Baker, an Axios alumnus. (Cable's MLB Network is separate and isn't being sold.)
- ESPN's direct-to-consumer streaming service and enhanced app launch tomorrow.
🎤 Join Axios' inaugural Media Trends Live event in NYC on Sept. 18, featuring Charlamagne tha God, ESPN chair Jimmy Pitaro and New York Times executive editor Joe Kahn. Full lineup.
1 big thing: Influencing Trump
There's a clear map for swaying President Trump — and it goes far beyond the cartoonish commentary that flattery and gifts are the surest ways, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.
- Why it matters: We talked to CEOs and world leaders who've had some success in working with Trump, as well as several aides watching the action inside the room. From their accounts, we stitched together the tricks for shifting or shaping Trump's views.
State of play: In Trump's second term, he's more self-confident and more indifferent to the opinions of others. But the savviest internal operators still know how to retrofit logic and strategy so they're speaking fluent Trump — his love language.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is a master practitioner, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio is none too shabby.
- As far as foreign leaders go, Finnish President Alexander Stubb — a transatlantic triathlete straight out of central casting — has impressed Trump with his golf game, vivid history lessons and tough talk on Russia.
For obvious reasons, none of our sources would discuss their Trump tradecraft on the record. But here are 11 top Trump tactics, given the known knowns of operating today. Each component or step was confirmed to us by multiple people who've seen success up close:
- Put a sock in it. There's nothing but downside to trashing Trump, his policies, or allies. There are simply too many Laura Loomers desperately seeking evidence of disloyalty. It's widely known internally that the boss feeds on evidence that someone is not right "on Trump."
- Put a sock in the mouths of others. You often pay for the sins of friends, partners or associates who trash Trump. One big job of ambassadors to the U.S. and lobbyists for big companies is to argue for silence among those above, and let things play out privately.
- Don't overreact. Many make the mistake of responding impulsively to Trump's impulsiveness. No matter what he says or claims to be doing, wait. It often takes days or weeks to realize if Trump will stick to something — or will simply change his mind or move on.
- Build two spheres of influence. Think of Trump's two ears. One is full of throwback MAGA purists, skeptical of anyone not purebred MAGA. You need to deeply understand this world and find — or hire — MAGA-savvy operators like Arthur Schwartz, Cliff Sims, Andy Surabian, Jeff Miller, Jason Miller, Chris LaCivita, Kellyanne Conway, Brian Ballard or Ches McDowell. The other ear hears the whispers of more conventionally rational actors like Rubio, Bessent or White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. These relationships tend to be peer-to-peer and require cultivation.
- Everything's negotiable. Trump lives for the transaction and public illumination of "big deals." You see this almost daily now, with Nvidia giving the U.S. a 15% cut of chip sales to China, or Apple's Tim Cook announcing another deal investing in American workers. You need to come to the table with a deal that's glossy and easy to explain, even if the details are flimsy.
- Remember, it's WWE or reality TV. Trump thinks about optics differently than, um, probably everyone else in business and politics. In his mind, it's all pageantry, posturing and PR — basically make-believe until a deal is done or dead. Shock and awe is a tactic. Outrage is good, or at least fine. In his mind, you only remember "the deal," not how you got there.
- Kiss ass — but in moderation. The cartoonish interpretation of Trump is to just come, like the three kings, bearing gifts, preferably of gold. There's some truth here. But Trump is better at sniffing out cringey obsequiousness than some think. He loves gifts but also exploits pure weakness. Grandeur in his love language. He loathes betas. The Saudis put on a masterclass with the palatial pomp and opulence during his state visit in May, when he secured $600 billion in investment commitments to the U.S. But pure boot-licking can backfire. The single most successful way to frame an idea for Trump is to show how it'll benefit him.
- Get face-to-face. Trump will say or write horrible things about people, nations or companies. But rarely in person, one-on-one. He wants to be liked and comes off kinder, more interested, less erratic when face-to-face. Just ask Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan: Trump said in a Truth Social post that he "must resign, immediately," then wrote four days later after meeting with him: "His success and rise is an amazing story." The trick is getting in the room, away from cameras and social media.
- Never assume the deal is fully done. What makes Trump maddening to deal with is his propensity to change his mind or mood — often on a dime, provoked by a random clip or conversation. A final deal is never truly final. Think of it as a happy moment in time — subject to change.
- Play the long game. None of these techniques is a one-off. We're not quite one-sixth of the way (213 days) through Trump's second term. The savviest leaders, companies and people tend to follow all 11 of these steps methodically and consistently over years, in bright times and bad.
- Pony up. Trump is aggressively fundraising for his MAGA Inc. super PAC and other political committees. Dinners sometimes cost $1 million a plate. The New York Times has extensively documented how contributors have received favorable treatment, including executives from crypto and healthcare companies.
Share this column ... Zachary Basu, Marc Caputo and Dave Lawler contributed.
2. 🚀 Musk prepares to back Vance in '28

Elon Musk is already pumping the brakes on his vow last month to start a new political party, and may spend big to back Vice President JD Vance's expected presidential run in 2028, The Wall Street Journal reports (gift link).
- Why it matters: Musk's moves could help lock in other political and financial support for Vance long before he signals his plans. Vance, the RNC finance chair, is holding high-dollar party fundraisers coast to coast.
"Musk has told allies that he wants to focus his attention on his companies and is reluctant to alienate powerful Republicans by starting a third party that could siphon off GOP voters," the Journal's Brian Schwartz says.
- "Musk has stayed in touch with Vance in recent weeks, and he has acknowledged to associates that if he goes ahead with forming a political party, he would damage his relationship with the vice president."
3. 💰 Companies start to buckle under tariffs
The corporate price dam is cracking — companies are raising them, or signaling that increases are coming, to absorb some of the costs of the Trump administration's tariffs, Axios' Emily Peck and Joann Muller write.
- Why it matters: Americans are already under strain from rapidly rising prices during the Biden administration. Another bout of hot inflation — at a time when the labor market is slowing down — will hurt.
🖼️ The big picture: President Trump's announcement of steep tariffs in April triggered widespread worries of higher prices. But the process took time. There were delays and back-and-forth between the White House and other countries over rates.
- Companies, fearful that high prices could spook their customers, held the line in the meantime. They stockpiled goods before tariffs kicked in.
- Now reality is biting. At the beginning of the month, the U.S. started levying tariffs of about 15% on dozens of countries. That was on top of tariffs of 30% on goods from China.
Zoom in: Home Depot had been able to maintain prices on imported products because they'd stockpiled before tariffs took effect. But now, the company expects "modest price movement in some categories" (corporate speak for price increases), an executive said on a call with investors yesterday.
- Last month, Procter & Gamble, maker of toothpaste, laundry detergent, etc., said that it would raise prices in August on about a quarter of its products as a result of tariffs.
👀 What to watch: The auto industry could be next. New vehicle prices have been mostly flat as automakers have eaten the cost of tariffs.
4. 🌹 Roses are still there

Yellow-and-white striped umbrellas are open in the newly paved Rose Garden, bringing that Mar-a-Lago patio vibe to the White House.
- "The roses remain untouched," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told the pool yesterday.

📱 The White House launched an official TikTok account, while continuing the platform's reprieve from a U.S. ban.
- See the first video, with Trump saying: "I am YOUR VOICE!"
5. 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Summit hits Kremlin hurdle
The White House insists Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky will soon meet for peace talks. The Kremlin seems far less certain, Axios' Dave Lawler and Josephine Walker write.
- Why it matters: Putin has shown no interest in sitting down with Zelensky through 3½ years of war. President Trump claims that's now changed, and that a presidential meeting is the key to unlocking peace.
🔬 Zoom in: Press secretary Karoline Leavitt declared yesterday that Putin had agreed to move to the "next phase" of the peace process — a bilateral meeting with Zelensky. Trump wants that meeting to take place by the end of August, ideally much sooner.
- But Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sang a very different tune yesterday. Any presidential summit should be preceded by a "step-by-step" process of lower-level talks, he told state media.
Go deeper: Two big sticking points.
6. 📊 Scoop: Newsom sees big backing for new districts

Gov. Gavin Newsom's bid to redraw California's congressional seats to create more Democrat-friendly districts has a 22-point advantage in support among the state's voters, Newsom's longtime pollster writes in an internal memo obtained by Axios' Alex Thompson.
- Why it matters: Democrats likely would gain several California seats in the 2026 midterms — and boost their odds of winning back control of the House — if voters in the liberal state pass the measure, which is a response to Republican efforts to gain seats by redistricting in Texas.
🧮 By the numbers: David Binder, a prominent Democratic pollster who has long worked for Newsom, found that 57% of California voters backed the redistricting measure, while 35% opposed and 8% were undecided.
- Voters' support appears to have increased as they've learned more about the measure, Binder said: A July survey had found that 51% favored Newsom's redistricting push.
7. 💡 Eric Schmidt blasts AGI obsession
Eric Schmidt— CEO of Relativity Space, and former CEO of Google — blasts Silicon Valley's obsession with artificial general intelligence (AGI, or human-level AI) and says China is doing a much better job getting great AI to work now.
- "While some Silicon Valley technologists issue doomsday warnings about the grave threat of A.I., Chinese companies are busy integrating it into everything from the superapp WeChat to hospitals, electric cars and even home appliances," Schmidt writes in a N.Y. Times op-ed with Selina Xu, a China and technology analyst.
"There's a widening schism between the technologists ... and members of the general public who are skeptical about the hype and see A.I. as a nuisance in their daily lives," Schmidt and Xu write:
"Instead of only asking 'Are we there yet?' it's time we recognize that A.I. is already a powerful agent of change. Applying and adapting the machine intelligence that's currently available will start a flywheel of more public enthusiasm for A.I. ... Being too fixated on artificial general intelligence risks distracting us from A.I.'s everyday impact. We need to pursue both."
Read the op-ed (gift link).
8. 🐢 Pics to go: Weighing the wild

A zookeeper weighs a giant Galapagos tortoise during the London Zoo's annual animal weigh-in yesterday.

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