Generative AI is replacing low-complexity, repetitive work, while also fueling demand for AI-related jobs, according to new data from freelance marketplace Upwork, shared first with Axios.

Why it matters: There are plenty of warnings about AI erasing jobs, but this evidence shows that many workers right now are using generative AI to increase their chances of getting work and to boost their salary.

The big picture: Uncertainty around AI's impact and abilities means companies are hesitant to hire full-time knowledge workers.

• Upwork says its platform data offers early indicators of future in-demand skills for both freelancers and full-time employees.

By the numbers: Freelance earnings from AI jobs are up 25% year over year, per the report.

• Freelancers in AI earn over 40% more per hour than those doing non-AI work.

What they're saying: The increased freelance earnings from AI jobs are typically from people who already had experience in that particular field, Kelly Monahan, manager of the Upwork Research Institute, tells Axios.

• "If you were a traditional machine learning expert, and now you're augmenting that work with generative AI, you're seeing such a great premium," Monahan says.
• The same is true for graphic designers who use AI image or video generation tools, she adds.

Between the lines: Most business leaders still don't trust AI to automate tasks without a human in the loop, so they're keen on anyone who knows how to use AI to augment their work.

• Upwork data also showed that managers still trust humans working alone and humans working with AI over AI-only outputs. And that trust gap is widening.
• Workers using AI for augmentation significantly outnumber those using it for automation, a finding that's similar to data that Anthropic released in February.

Demand for repetitive coding has dipped, but the report shows clients are still looking for experienced developers for more complex projects.

• Freelancers with jobs requiring coding skills for at least 25% of their work now earn 11% more for the same jobs compared with November 2022, when ChatGPT launched, per Upwork.
• The data also suggests that the rise of vibe coding — using AI to code without knowing how to code — is creating demand for more workers who are skilled at using vibe coding tools.
• This is giving rise to what Upwork calls "the generalist," which is anyone who can work with AI to code and design.

What they did: Upwork used its proprietary platform data to evaluate more than 130 categories of work and 62 narrow job categories within broader job fields like "design & creative" or "sales & marketing."

• Researchers tracked the full life cycle of tasks and jobs with the Upwork marketplace over the last six months.
• The company says its dataset includes "millions of job posts" and "billions of dollars in freelance earnings," tracking how job types changed based on when contracts started and how much a freelancer earned.

Yes, but: AI adoption in the workplace has had a rocky start, with executives pushing for it and workers pushing back.

• Many employees still don't understand company policy and are using their own AI tools in secret.
• A Duke University study published last month found that workers who use genAI "face negative judgments about their competence and motivation from others."

Zoom out: Anthropic on Friday launched a program to study how its tools and others are changing the way we work.

• The Economic Futures Program will provide research grants, work with policymakers and track AI's economic impact and usage trends over time.
• "There's no shortage of opinions about AI's economic outcomes," Anthropic wrote in its announcement. "We believe it's fundamental to ground these conversations in real-world data."
• Anthropic CEO and co-founder Dario Amodei told Axios last month that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to 10%-20% in the next one to five years.

The bottom line: AI is already replacing some jobs, but it's also expanding other kinds of work that humans can do with it.

If you can get more done in less time using AI, why not work fewer hours?

Why it matters: The idea is gaining traction among proponents of the four-day workweek, and at least one software startup CEO tells Axios that he's moved his company to a 32-hour week — with no change in pay — because of AI.

Where it stands: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) brought it up on Joe Rogan's podcast recently.

• "You're a worker, your productivity is increasing because we give you AI, right?" Sanders said. "Instead of throwing you out on the street, I'm going to reduce your workweek to 32 hours."
• Sanders is a four-day workweek booster, having introduced a 32-hour workweek bill last year, though such a proposal is unlikely to get far in Congress.

Zoom out: The four-day workweek community, which took off in the post-pandemic pro-worker era, is buzzing about AI right now, says economist Juliet Schor, who has a new book out this month called "Four Days a Week."

• "The ability of large language models like ChatGPT to wipe out millions of good-paying positions means we need to be intentional about how we adjust to that technology," she writes in the book. "Reducing hours per job is a powerful way to keep more people employed."

Reality check: Smaller firms can more easily implement a big change like a four-day week — larger companies are likely to have a harder time making it happen, experts say.

• Firms also have a strong preference for layoffs to appease investors.

But reducing work hours to make sure a lot of people don't lose their jobs when technology advances isn't a new idea.

• Shortening work hours as a way to reduce unemployment was one of the arguments wielded by advocates for five-day workweeks back in the early 20th century. (That used to be a wild idea, too.)

Earlier this month, Roger Kirkness, the CEO of a small software startup called Convictional, moved the company to a four-day workweek.

• "Look at Fridays like weekends," he wrote in an email announcing the change, to the delight of his 12 employees. (One must be on-call each week, on a rotating schedule.)

"(Nearly) all that matters in work moving forward is the maximization of creativity, human judgment, emotional intelligence, prompting skills and deeply understanding a customer domain," Kirkness wrote in his all-staff email.

• "None of those things correlate with hours."

Keep reading.

• Canada axed its digital services tax late Sunday after President Trump broke off trade talks Friday, calling the law unfair. (Axios)
• OpenAI has told its staff that it's "recalibrating comp" in an effort to fight back against Meta's efforts to poach the company's best researchers, according to an internal memo. (Wired)
• Facebook has started asking for access to users' camera rolls so Meta AI can suggest AI edits on photos that users haven't posted yet. (TechCrunch)
• Elon Musk calls the green energy cutbacks in the latest draft tax bill "utterly insane," due to their potential negative impact on AI training. (Washington Post)

An office etiquette expert told the San Francisco Standard that she charges tech companies $2,500 for employee workshops on how to make eye contact, which side of your shirt to wear your name tag on and personal hygiene tips.