Axios 2028

February 22, 2026
🗳️ Welcome back to our weekly newsletter guiding you through the next presidential election, starting with Democrats. 1,696 words, 6½ minutes.
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1 big thing: 🤖 Dems' big AI retreat
😬 The AI backpedaling has begun: 2028 Democratic contenders who bet big on data centers are suddenly retreating amid a growing voter revolt.
Why it matters: The politics of AI are evolving almost as rapidly as the technology.
- Just a few months ago, potential 2028 presidential candidates — including Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore — were bending over backwards to lure data centers with offers of lavish tax breaks and other goodies.
- 💪 The projects seemed like no-brainers to many pols: They promised jobs, made building trade unions happy, took on China and pleased Silicon Valley execs.
- Now those Democrats are abruptly retreating — and vowing to protect voters from the consequences of the AI revolution.
⚡️ The reason: From MAGA country to liberal Prince George's County in Maryland's D.C. suburbs, Americans are increasingly blaming the power-sucking centers for high energy bills — and they're freaked out about AI's ability to eliminate jobs.
Zoom in: Before the dawn of ChatGPT, Pritzker signed legislation in 2019 doling out tax breaks for data centers.
- AI took off and Chicago became one of the nation's biggest data-center hubs. But households' electricity bills went up, and some faulted data centers.
- This past week, Pritzker hit the pause button in his State of the State speech, proposing a two-year moratorium on the tax incentives.
Shapiro has shifted from proclaiming last year that Pennsylvania was "all in on AI" and trumpeting a $20 billion investment by Amazon in his state.
- After residents complained about data centers in their backyards, Shapiro called for additional oversight during his budget address this month, saying: "I know Pennsylvanians have real concerns about these data centers ... and so do I."
Moore has been wooing data centers, signing a bill in 2024 that removed building roadblocks and vetoing legislation to study their impacts.
- He changed tone at his State of the State address this month, unveiling new guidelines that Maryland data centers must follow to win his support.
What they're saying: "We're in the early innings of the anxiety people are feeling about artificial intelligence," said Rob Flaherty, a deputy campaign manager for Kamala Harris in 2024. "Data centers are just one manifestation of that, but they're a serious one."
- "It's smart for Democrats to be on the front foot of this," he added.
✍️ The intrigue: In an interview with Axios, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear described his approach, which is quickly becoming Democrats' playbook for navigating the issue.
- Beshear, who's also eyeing a White House run, said data center developers in his state should do three things: "Pay for 100% of your power," "pay your fair share of taxes," and "be embraced by the community."
- Pritzker, Shapiro and Moore — who unlike Beshear face reelection this year — now are making similar demands.
Other Democrats weighing 2028 runs also are starting to lay out early visions to address AI anxiety.
- This weekend, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg called for "a new social contract" to respond to AI's rise.
- And California Rep. Ro Khanna laid out seven principles for new tech while appearing at Stanford University with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, calling for "real protections against mass displacement."
— Holly Otterbein, Alex Thompson
2. 👀 Scoop: How Gaza hurt Harris
🤫 Top Democratic officials working on the party's still-secret autopsy of the 2024 election concluded that Kamala Harris lost significant support because of the Biden administration's approach to the war in Gaza, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: The DNC's research on what went wrong has been under lock and key since party leaders decided last year to hide it from the public — a reflection of how explosively it could resonate within the party and beyond.
- 🇮🇱 Progressive and moderate Democrats are particularly divided over Israel, with the left more critical of that nation's actions against Palestinians in Gaza and many questioning the U.S.'s unwavering support for Israel.
During her campaign Harris tried to strike a balance — showing support for Israel while calling for a ceasefire, and expressing sympathy for Palestinians under attack in Gaza and the hostages held by Hamas.
DNC aides putting together the report on Harris' loss to Donald Trump had a closed-door conversation with a pro-Palestinian group about the Israel-Hamas conflict.
- Activists from the IMEU Policy Project told the DNC that the Biden-Harris administration's support for Israel was a factor in the party's losses because it drained support from young people and progressives.
- Hamid Bendaas, a spokesperson for the IMEU Policy Project, said the DNC "shared with us that their own data also found that policy was, in their words, a 'net-negative' in the 2024 election." Two other senior aides at the pro-Palestinian organization also said the DNC had drawn that conclusion.
- Axios independently verified that Democratic officials conducting the autopsy believed the issue harmed the party's standing with some voters.
The intrigue: The IMEU Policy Project now accuses the DNC of withholding its report partly because of its findings on Israel.
- DNC spokesperson Kendall Witmer denied that.
- Harris wrote in her book "107 Days" that she privately "pleaded" with President Biden to show more empathy for Gaza civilians. But publicly she declined to break with Biden over Israel.
— Holly Otterbein
3. 🌴 Scoop: S. Carolina Dems turn to Biden
South Carolina Democrats are enlisting Biden to try to save the state's place as the first contest in the party's next presidential primary.
- The state's party chair has invited senior Democrats who will determine the 2028 primary calendar to a reception with Biden this Friday in Columbia, S.C., according to an email obtained by Axios.
📆 Why it matters: The order in which states vote in a primary can be key in determining the eventual nominee.
- Biden's presence could help or hurt South Carolina's case: Many Democrats still have warm feelings for him, while others blame Trump's 2024 victory on Biden's decision to run again, aged 81.
🚙 Driving the news: Christale Spain, chair of South Carolina's Democratic Party, has been inviting members of the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee to the Biden reception as part of the state party's lobbying effort.
- "This intimate gathering offers a rare opportunity to spend time with the former president," Spain wrote to one committee member.
Between the lines: The DNC panel will decide the 2028 calendar in the coming months, and there's already fierce jostling among 12 states vying to go first.
- South Carolina was traditionally early in the primary calendar, but behind Iowa and New Hampshire. That changed in 2024, at Biden's direction.
Biden wanted South Carolina — his strongest state in the 2020 primary — to vote first.
- Biden's team publicly argued that they were elevating South Carolina because its primary electorate was diverse with a large Black population.
- But privately, many on Biden's team acknowledged the main motivation was to discourage primary challenges — and guarantee the party would renominate the aging president.
— Alex Thompson
4. 🫏 Trail mix: The week in the pre-campaign
A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to:
- Buttigieg is writing another book, and signed with Simon & Schuster's new imprint Simon Six — the creation of departing Simon & Schuster CEO Jonathan Karp that will print just six titles a year, Breaker reported. Buttigieg also campaigned in New Hampshire for Senate candidate Chris Pappas and others.
- Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz also are shopping around book proposals, Breaker reported.
- Beshear revealed the cover of his forthcoming book "Go and Do Likewise: How We Heal a Broken Country."
- Moore addressed the clashes with his own state legislature that we reported last week, telling Politico: "There is no political party that made me ... I don't answer to the Democratic Party. I don't answer to party bosses."
- New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker traveled to Nevada and campaigned with lieutenant governor candidate Sandra Jauregui and North Las Vegas mayoral candidate Daniele Monroe-Moreno.
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom starts his book tour this week with first stops through the South and then a flurry of media appearances.
- Newsom talked with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at the San Francisco Fairmont lobby restaurant, Politico Playbook reported, and hosted South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn on his podcast.
- Newsom also addressed a potential 2028 matchup against Kamala Harris, telling CNN's Dana Bash, "fate will determine that. And I've never gotten in the way of her ambition, ever."
- Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel penned his latest op-ed for the Wall Street Journal with the headline: "The Donroe Doctrine's Year of Failure."
- Shapiro dodged questions from ABC News' Martha Raddatz about whether he'd support Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman's reelection in 2028 amid reports of their broken relationship.
- New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tried to play clean-up in a New York Times interview after her shaky performance at the Munich Security Conference.
- Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego joined farmworkers at dawn in Yuma, Ariz.
- Data guru Nate Silver assessed the electoral track records of various potential 2028 candidates and wrote that "Newsom, like Harris, consistently underperforms other Democrats" but Gallego "was beating his presidential baselines in his House races even before he reached the Senate in 2024."
5. 🏈 1 fun thing: Big Play Wes
Before he entered politics, Moore regularly greeted the beginning of the NFL season with tweets like: "It's football season!!! Who you got this year?" and "Football season has returned! Let's go boys! #Ravens."
Moore, now 47 and a potential contender for the White House, wasn't just a fan. As an undergrad at Johns Hopkins University, the future Maryland governor was a decent wide receiver.
- 📊 He didn't have the greatest stats — in his senior year he caught eight passes and scored two touchdowns. But he did average an impressive 25.2 yards per reception, so he was a deep threat, according to university reports in 2000.
- In 2022, Moore dug up some old game tape of a 51-yard reception and offered his services to the Baltimore Ravens.
- They didn't take him up on it, but the next year Moore dropped by the Ravens' training camp and caught a touchdown pass from star quarterback Lamar Jackson. Being governor has its perks!
Thanks to David Lindsey, Axios managing editor for politics, for orchestrating. Edited by Arthur MacMillan.
See you next Sunday!
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