Axios 2028

October 11, 2026
🗳️ 23 days to the midterms, and we're back with our weekly newsletter guiding you through the next presidential election, starting with Democrats. 1,211 words, 4½ minutes.
1 big thing: 🎰 Buttigieg's big gamble
Pete Buttigieg has been able to campaign for Democrats across the country more than many of his potential 2028 rivals this past year. One reason: He doesn't have a job.
- That's by choice. Buttigieg said no when top Democrats urged him to run for governor or the U.S. Senate in Michigan this year.
Why it matters: That decision is a gamble for Buttigieg's presidential ambitions. He's been able to build a national network over the last two years but hasn't added to his relatively thin resume as a former mayor of South Bend, Ind., and Joe Biden's transportation secretary.
- Buttigieg, 44, became a national political figure without following the typical path.
- He ran for president in 2020 as a small-town mayor and won the Iowa caucus by offering an optimistic vision and impressing voters with his communication skills — including in hostile environments.
🏎️ Driving the news: In early 2025, Democratic lawmakers and strategists including New York Sen. Chuck Schumer and former Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow urged Buttigieg — who had moved to Michigan — to run for office in his new state.
- Winning such an office, they argued, would help Buttigieg build his resume for a future White House run and give him a chance to distance himself from the unpopular Biden administration.
- Buttigieg passed, citing both a desire to stay home more with his husband and young twins, and figuring that he could still get his message out without being in the Senate.
- Instead, he set about building a larger national network among Democrats — particularly with Black voters in the South, where he had struggled in the 2020 Democratic primary.
Buttigieg has traveled to 37 states since he left the Biden administration, Politico reported last week.
- 🙏 Democratic candidates in vital swing districts and states have welcomed him to campaign for them this year while resisting offers from other potential presidential candidates such as former Vice President Kamala Harris, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
- In Buttigieg, many Democrats see a surrogate who can draw attention and crowds without the degree of negative attention that other prominent Democrats attract.
- Buttigieg also will campaign in key races in the final weeks before the Nov. 3 election. He's scheduled to be in Michigan and Virginia — which happen to hold early contests in the 2028 presidential primary.
🔎 Between the lines: Buttigieg has tried to position himself as a candidate of the next generation who also has enough experience in the executive branch to be able to deliver.
- He's betting that the traditional ladder of running for president — becoming a senator, governor, or vice president first — no longer applies, especially after the Trump era.
What they're saying: Buttigieg "knows what no one else on the Democratic side does, which is what it's actually like to run for this office — the pacing, the pressures and imperatives," David Axelrod, a former senior aide to President Obama and an outside adviser to Buttigieg in the past, told us.
- "At a time when the party and country will be searching for youth and forward-looking vision, he has the capacity to articulate one in a powerful way," Axelrod added.
- Axelrod said that if Buttigieg runs, "it will be because he feels the timing is right for someone like him, and the big mission is more compelling than the statewide races on which he took a pass."
A Buttigieg spokesperson said that "when Pete decided not to run for office in Michigan, he promised he would still get to work to help candidates everywhere. He's been doing just that."
— Alex Thompson, Holly Otterbein
2. 🫏 This week in the 2028 pre-campaign
Our weekly look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to:
- 💥 Ocasio-Cortez will campaign for progressive Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan on Thursday. She declared at a private fundraiser that a victory by El-Sayed would "break open the entire political calculus in America — period."
- Harris' husband, Doug Emhoff, has said privately that he doesn't want her to run for president for a third time, according to the Wall Street Journal. Harris has hired at least 11 paid staff members as she weighs another bid, the Donor Class reported.
- 💰 The Democratic Governors Association is ponying up $1 million to help Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, the DGA's chair, has been under heavy pressure from Latino Democrats to invest in Hinojosa's campaign against Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R).
- 💵 Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has contributed $1 million to support Hinojosa's campaign, and he visited the first-in-the-nation primary state of South Carolina yesterday.
- Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro hit the trail in Bucks County with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to campaign for Bob Harvie, who's trying to unseat Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.).
- Shapiro, who's running for reelection this year, dodged a question at a debate about whether he would commit to serving another full four-year term.
- Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, also up for reelection, ducked the same question during a debate this week.
- 👩🏼💼 Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego reemerged in the 2028 conversation after being relatively quiet, rolling out a plan aimed at protecting workers from the drawbacks of AI.
- ✈️ Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock announced his midterm travel dates, which include trips to several states that will vote early in the 2028 presidential primary season. He was in New Hampshire and Nevada this past week and is scheduled to visit South Carolina on Tuesday and again Friday and Saturday, and then Michigan (Oct. 20–21). Also on Warnock's schedule: Mississippi, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio.
- Warnock was in Nevada along with Buttigieg and Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin for a fall retreat by Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto's "ModSquad" group, which aims to boost centrist lawmakers.
- 👨🏽🍳 New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker is traveling to Nevada this weekend for an event with the powerful Culinary Union and a canvass launch for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Aaron Ford. Booker plans to go to New Hampshire, South Carolina and Alabama later this fall.
3. 🎃 1 fun thing: Murphy's DIY Halloween
Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy's family has a tradition: making Halloween costumes by hand.
- He told us that one of his all-time favorite getups was a monarch butterfly costume he wore at age 6.
- 🦋 "My mother hand-painted these giant cardboard wings, and it was an impossible costume because it was enormous, and it made trick-or-treating very hard," he said. "But I remember being very proud that I had a super-original costume."
When Murphy became a dad, he crafted a Voltron costume for his son.
Murphy also told us he'll be barnstorming the country this month for Senate candidates, with a travel itinerary that includes North Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire.
- He argues that if progressives such as Michigan's El-Sayed are elected next month, it'll prove that voters are willing to "take chances on candidates that are not just running on poll-tested, middle-of-the-road incremental reform" ahead of 2028.
- 🤔 Asked whether he's thinking about running for president, he said, "I won't sit down to make that decision until after the midterms."
🙏 Thanks to David Lindsey, Axios managing editor for politics, for orchestrating. Copy edited by Brad Bonhall.
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