The day that launched Gavin Newsom as a presidential frontrunner also brought an unwelcome surprise that could haunt the California governor's potential 2028 campaign.

😬 Why it matters: Sen. Alex Padilla caught Newsom off guard Nov. 4 by declaring he wouldn't run for governor — depriving Newsom of his preferred successor on the same day the governor triumphed in a statewide redistricting referendum.

• Newsom has resisted endorsing any other potential successor ahead of the June 2 primary. There's no clear Democratic frontrunner, and he wants to have a good relationship with whoever wins.
• Polls show it's possible for the two Republican candidates to finish first and second in California's "jungle primary" — locking out Democrats from the general election.

😎 The big picture: The winner of the California race matters a great deal for Newsom's potential 2028 campaign. His governance of the state — and Republican criticism of it — will be critical to a candidacy. He wants a competent governor whom he can work with in 2027 and 2028.

• But many strong candidates either did not run or withdrew.
• Newsom privately expressed frustration with a CNN story last month that reported his critiques of all the candidates and told people it didn't capture his true feelings.

👉 Between the lines: Newsom's hand might be forced in the next two weeks.

• If there is still a real chance of a Republican lockout, Newsom has considered backing one Democrat to try to boost them into the general election.

🤔 Each potential Democrat has potential drawbacks or has personally clashed with the governor.

• Xavier Becerra, the former HHS secretary in the Biden administration, has rocketed up in the polls. But some Democrats fear he would be an underwhelming general election candidate, and some worry he'd be an ineffective governor based on his tenure working for Biden. (Some former top Biden officials, like former chief of staff Ron Klain, back Becerra.)
• Tom Steyer, a billionaire who has spent over $100 million in the race, clashed with Newsom's team last fall over Proposition 50 ads that some believe hurt the campaign.
• Katie Porter, the former congresswoman, has largely been stuck in single digits or low double digits in the polls after videos of her snapping at an aide and a clash with a reporter went viral last year.
• Matt Mahan, the mayor of San Jose who has shot up in the polls with a lot of money from Silicon Valley, built much of his statewide reputation criticizing Newsom on crime and homelessness. He blasted Newsom's trollish social media strategy last year as a losing strategy for "improving the lives of Californians."

⏮️ The intrigue: Mahan has changed his tune on Newsom, whom most California Democrats approve of, since launching his campaign this year.

• Mahan told us in March: "I think Gavin Newsom is a generational talent. I think he is quite likely to be our party's nominee, and assuming he is, I will look forward to vigorously campaigning for him."
• Mahan parted ways with his chief strategist Eric Jaye, who had an ugly split with Newsom in 2009 after being a longtime strategist for him. Jaye did not respond to a request for comment.
• Mahan and Newsom also share many donors from the tech community.

The bottom line: Still, Mahan has not been effusive about Newsom's tenure.

• Asked at a debate this week to describe Newsom's time as governor, Mahan said, "Incomplete."

Share this story.

— Alex Thompson

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is quietly trying to derail a left-wing congressional candidate championed by New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, we have learned.

💪 Why it matters: The May 19 primary is shaping up as an early test of strength for the two potential 2028 presidential campaign rivals.

• The contest is also a microcosm of the nationwide civil war between the Democratic Party's liberal and centrist wings.

📣 Driving the news: Ocasio-Cortez has endorsed Chris Rabb, a progressive firebrand state lawmaker from Philadelphia who's running for a U.S. House seat in a competitive, three-way Democratic primary.

• Ocasio-Cortez is rumored to be visiting Philadelphia this month to campaign for Rabb. She has also fundraised for Rabb and posted on social media in support of him.
• Shapiro has not been publicly active in the race, as AOC has.
• But Shapiro and his team have privately told allies that he disapproves of Rabb and has taken steps to block his path, according to three people familiar with the discussions.

Between the lines: Rabb has long been a thorn in Shapiro's side. In January, he wrote on Instagram, "Governor Shapiro, stop state collaboration with ICE!"

• Rabb spoke at a protest that day aimed at pushing Shapiro, a moderate, to the left on his approach toward Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The rally was staged outside Shapiro's first stop on his book tour.
• That level of confrontation is rarely seen from Democratic state legislators toward the governor.
• Rabb turned heads in 2022 when he didn't immediately shoot down calls to challenge Shapiro in the gubernatorial primary. (He ultimately didn't run.)

🚪 Behind the scenes: Shapiro has privately advised Philadelphia's building trades unions to avoid inadvertently helping Rabb, the lone progressive in the race, by attacking one of his center-left opponents, two of our sources told us.

• The sources said Shapiro suggested that the building trades, which are backing another candidate, Sharif Street, avoid running attack ads against a third contender, Ala Stanford.
• Street and Stanford are seen as traditional Democrats who share similar voters.

🤕 Some political insiders think Rabb could be a headache for a potential Shapiro 2028 campaign if he wins — because Rabb is likely to continue to clash with the governor, only on a larger stage.

• "Chris is an actual problem for [Shapiro] for what he wants to be when he grows up," said one Pennsylvania Democratic strategist.
• Shapiro hasn't officially endorsed a candidate in the primary, and some Democrats think he is unlikely to do so given the political cross-pressures he's facing.

The other side: Despite his differences with Rabb, Shapiro has alliances with others on the left. He's backing the Bernie Sanders–endorsed candidate, Bob Brooks, in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District race. And he's aligned himself with a Working Families Party city council member in Philly.

• AOC isn't the only potential 2028er who endorsed Rabb: California Rep. Ro Khanna and Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen also have.

What they're saying: "This is yet another D.C. story more focused on clicks than the reality on the ground in Pennsylvania," said Shapiro spokesman Manuel Bonder.

• "The governor has not endorsed or opposed anyone in this primary — and he looks forward to working directly with whoever wins to win in November. Gov. Shapiro is focused on flipping Republican seats and winning up and down the ballot in November."
• Rabb's campaign declined to comment. An Ocasio-Cortez spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

Read more.

— Holly Otterbein

A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to:

• Ocasio-Cortez — who had largely been avoiding media sit-downs — gave extended interviews to "It's Open With Ilana Glazer" and "You Decide With Errol Louis." She also told Democratic strategist David Axelrod at an event in Chicago that some people "assume that my ambition is a title or a seat. And my ambition is way bigger than that. My ambition is to change this country. And presidents come and go, Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go, but single-payer healthcare is forever."
• We asked Axe what he thought of her response. "I got the impression from it and other comments that she's pondering all her options but doesn't feel the burning, pathological need to run for POTUS that drives many of those who run," he said. "At least not now."
• Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, chatted about aliens and UFOs with NOTUS.
• NBC scooped that Harris has told donors that the DNC should release its still-secret autopsy of the 2024 election.
• Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker told Politico's Jonathan Martin that he would be "surprised" if Harris didn't run for the White House again in 2028.
• Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel likewise called for disclosing the DNC report. At the Milken Institute's Global Conference, Emanuel sparred with former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin over corruption. He also gave a somewhat testy interview to Jewish Insider.
• Shapiro announced that his administration is suing Character.AI, alleging that it's posing as a licensed psychiatrist.
• TV journalist Don Lemon floated running for president for the second time in recent weeks at Tina Brown's journalists summit in London: "I'm a man of a certain age.… Why not?"
• Maryland Gov. Wes Moore went on the conservative PBD Podcast, where he was asked what he would do if his son wanted to transition. "I love him regardless," he said. "If this is a journey that he wants to go down, I want him to always be comfortable in his own skin."
• Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg endorsed Luke Bronin, 46, who's mounting a generational-change primary challenge against Democratic Connecticut Rep. John Larson, 77.
• Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, who reluctantly signed a landmark AI regulation bill that the tech industry sees as burdensome, told the Wall Street Journal, "I generally agree with the direction the White House is taking to preempt state laws on AI."

Shapiro is well-versed on the triangle offense, the 2001 Philadelphia 76ers with Allen Iverson (or "AI" as he and many other fans say), and how he tried to emulate 76er Maurice "Mo" Cheeks when he played point guard in high school.

🗑️ Why it matters: Lots of politicians opine on sports to try to appear relatable to voters. But Shapiro's fandom is the real deal, particularly when it comes to basketball.

• His teammates used to call him "The General," the Philadelphia Inquirer recently reported.
• Shapiro said he was a "John Stockton-type" of player — referencing the Utah Jazz point guard who is still the NBA player with the most assists — while making clear he was a far worse player.

Between the lines: He's also a bit nostalgic for how the NBA was when big centers were critical to the game and before 3-point shooting became so central.

• "I think a lot about how M.J. used to beat his player off the dribble but then when he got in the lane he had to deal with [New York Knick] Patrick Ewing," he said in 2025.
• "It's just a really really different game today."