Many of those who know Kamala Harris best think she ultimately won't run for the White House in 2028.

Why it matters: What the former vice president decides to do is one of the biggest X factors in the next presidential contest: Early polls suggest Harris is the frontrunner to be the Democratic nominee, and if she opted out, it would scramble the primary.

🔬 Zoom in: Over the past year, a surprisingly large number of former aides, surrogates and donors to Harris have told Axios they believe she won't launch another campaign.

• They argue that the moves she's making — hitting the trail for midterm candidates, going on the podcast circuit, and writing a book — might make her look like a contender-in-waiting, but actually amount to her simply trying to maintain influence.
• Harris has said publicly and privately she hasn't made up her mind yet, and some of her former aides concede they could be wrong — or could even be "wishcasting" because they don't want her to pursue another bid.

📝 This week, we surveyed eight former Harris aides and advisers, including those who worked for her at a senior level, to get their most up-to-date read. Only one thought Harris probably will run. Two said it's a coin-flip, and five said she likely won't. Here's why:

1. She's doing "the bare minimum" to stay in the 2028 conversation, as one past aide put it. Harris' former staffers argue that if she were gung-ho about running she'd be hiring more, traveling more, and inserting herself into policy debates more often.
2. She's a rational actor. Former aides say Harris is well aware of the hurdles that would await her if she ran again. "She's a realist and an astute political observer, and she knows her candidacy could get bogged down in a 2024 rearview mirror," said a second former aide.
3. The money might not be there. Many high-dollar donors are still furious about Harris' loss and don't want her to run again. Top Democratic donor Reid Hoffman said last week that she'd face "a very challenging path" in 2028. Some of her former financial backers are signaling support for other potential candidates, such as Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
4. She isn't an egomaniac. Sure, this is self-serving. But multiple people who worked for Harris say she lacks the "sociopathic" belief — their words, not ours — that it's she and she alone who should be president.
5. Some tea leaves suggest she's lukewarm about running. Harris effectively gave up control of her @KamalaHQ social media account, and bought an $8 million house in Malibu with her husband. Also, her top aide Kirsten Allen left her team recently, though Harris still speaks with her.

🗣️ What they're saying: A former Harris aide connected to Axios by her current team put the odds of another run at "50-50," saying the former VP "is a very methodical decision-maker" who will weigh "the moment that we're in."

• This former aide pushed back on the notion that money could be a problem, pointing to Harris' massive email fundraising list and arguing that high-dollar donors won't determine the next nominee. They also said her team doesn't need to be bigger when the focus is on the midterms.
• "There will be a lot of people who will feel a lot of urgency to announce as soon as possible," the former aide said. "The vice president doesn't necessarily have to be on that timeline."

The lone former Harris staffer who told us they expect her to run gave it a "55% chance," noting that she's been ramping up her calls to Democratic officials and activists.

• 🧞‍♀️ "I think there's a lot of wishcasting that maybe Kamala will come to her senses and not do it," this person said.
• Harris definitely is keeping the door open to another bid. She's gearing up to campaign this fall for battleground candidates such as Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and Nevada gubernatorial hopeful Aaron Ford.
• But many former aides who think Harris would be a good president say they don't want her to run again because they doubt she could win, given her record. One way to view their arguments: They're trying to persuade her to stay out of the race.

David Plouffe, Harris' 2024 senior adviser, was blunt about the headwinds she would face in a third national campaign, even as he acknowledged she'd begin in an enviable position.

• "Her strongest day will be her first day in the campaign," Plouffe told "Pod Save America," predicting that Harris' support likely would erode as the race developed.

During a recent podcast interview, Harris told former soccer star Megan Rapinoe: "I don't know how to live and not serve."

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— Holly Otterbein

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear signaled in an interview with Axios that he'll put America's housing affordability crisis at the center of his campaign if he runs for president in 2028.

👉 Why it matters: It's the latest sign that Beshear, who just kicked off a national book tour, is moving closer to a bid for the White House.

Driving the news: Beshear said the next president should pursue a massive housing initiative — with strict guidelines to ensure the money is spent quickly.

• "There's a chance for the next presidential administration or the next Congress to make a big, bold investment in housing that could have us building millions of units all over the United States," he said.
• 💧 "We cannot do this in drips and drabs. It can't be mild investments over a period of time."

Echoing the "Abundance" movement, which calls for slashing regulations to lower housing costs, Beshear said federal dollars sent to states should be used quickly or withdrawn.

• "If you tie the federal dollars to that timing, you will break through the regulation and the NIMBYism," he said.
• Beshear declined to put a specific price tag on his vision, saying that those details could be discussed with lawmakers. But he said $150 billion in federal spending could theoretically lead to $1 trillion of housing being built if enough outside financing were leveraged.

By the numbers: Escalating home prices have become a major political issue in recent years. Sixty-four percent of American adults say they're "very concerned" about the cost of housing, according to a Pew Research Center poll in July.

❄️ The intrigue: After talking policy, we asked Beshear about rumors swirling in Democratic circles that he could announce a run for president as soon as December.

• "I would tell you that that is solely a rumor," he said of the winter timeline. "I haven't made any final decisions yet."
• But, sounding as if he's close to making up his mind, Beshear added, "Listen, I don't want to leave a broken country to my kids."

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— Holly Otterbein

A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to:

• 🩺 Harris will campaign in Michigan this week for Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for Senate, with a roundtable on Black residents' maternal health. She also will meet with local officials, her office told NBC News. Some Democrats in more conservative states have said they don't want Harris to campaign for them, but the Democratic nominee for Florida governor, David Jolly, said he'd welcome Harris to campaign with him.
• ✋ Newsom, who suggested in an interview with Axios that he deferred his political ambitions to Harris earlier in their political careers in California, told CNN's Jake Tapper that he wouldn't run for president in 2028 if Harris did. "Mutual assured destruction. It services no greater good," he said. "There would be no upside whatsoever." He also talked about mistakes he made during COVID, and more.
• 🤖 Newsom issued an executive order Friday to speed the enactment of AI bills he recently signed, including a measure to explore mandating that companies have a "kill switch" for their models.
• As she weighs running for Senate or president in 2028, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announced she'll campaign throughout her state in the weeks ahead of the Nov. 3 election with stops in Buffalo, Syracuse and Ithaca, the New York Times reported. She also donated $300,000 to the New York state Democratic ticket.
• 📖 Beshear embarks on his book tour this week for "Go and Do Likewise: How We Heal a Broken Country." His event in D.C. on Tuesday will be moderated by Moore, a potential 2028 rival.
• In the latest sign of the fast-moving politics of AI, Moore also told Punchbowl News that he'd sign a bill to halt data centers in Maryland. "If something makes it to my desk, and especially if it's coming from the local legislators for a statewide ban, I'll absolutely sign it."
• Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro had an AI summit Thursday in Pittsburgh, where he called for the federal government to regulate AI. "I am not a doomer. I don't think that it is inevitable that AI is going to take over the world, or that someone will misuse it to kill us or to do harm," he said.
• 🎥 Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker filmed a video touting an AI regulation bill he signed in July. He said that "Congress needs to follow Illinois' lead" and called for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to call Congress back into session to pass AI laws (which likely won't happen).
• California Rep. Ro Khanna, who previously declined to support Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders' bill for a moratorium on AI data centers, told Politico he now backs Sanders' bill to pause advanced AI development.
• Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy gave $200,000 to the DSCC, $100,000 to the DCCC, $100,000 to the DNC, and $125,000 across 25 state parties, Politico reported.
• Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen swung through New Hampshire Thursday and Friday and talked about the war in Iran, tariffs, and the tension between the DNC and the state over the 2028 primary calendar. "I'm hoping that we will have a conversation with the DNC to make sure that candidates can feel free to come to New Hampshire, because New Hampshire has played and will continue to play a really important role in this process," he told WMUR.