Axios 2028

March 01, 2026
š¼ Welcome to March! We're back with our weekly newsletter guiding you through the next presidential election, starting with Democrats. 1,775 words, 6½ minutes.
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1 big thing: š It's AOC or bust for far-left Dems
ā”ļø For many far-left Democrats, it's AOC or bust in 2028.
- Left-wing Democrats are quietly escalating efforts to persuade New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to run for president. One big reason: They see no clear alternative. Bernie Sanders (84) is too old ā and no other Sanders-like pol with national punch is emerging.
š Driving the news: Allies tell Axios the pitch to Ocasio-Cortez and her team is essentially this:
- She'd enter the race polling in the top five of potential Democratic contenders, and as the liberal heir to Sanders.
- š Her high profile would allow her to raise $100 million online without a single in-person fundraiser.
- There's a window of opportunity for a left-wing nominee that may not come again for a generation. Democratic-socialist and liberal victories in New York City and elsewhere ā with potentially more this fall ā have changed the political playing field.
- Her candidacy would force Democrats to debate issues she and Sanders care about, such as Medicare for All and Gaza.
- If her candidacy faltered, she could drop out early and still make a run for Senate in 2028, for the seat now occupied by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
"I think she'll plan to run for both and end up a senator," a plugged-in liberal strategist said.
š¤ The intrigue: AOC's team has been working over the past year to give her the option of running for president or Senate.
- At the end of 2025, she had more than $13 million in a campaign account after spending several million on building up her already formidable grassroots fundraising machine, according to campaign finance records.
- Ocasio-Cortez privately has been asking for frequent updates on liberal candidates in this year's midterms. The Senate races in Maine and Michigan in particular could validate the theory that voters are hungry for a left-wing outsider in 2028.
- Former Sanders campaign manager Faiz Shakir ā an outside adviser to Ocasio-Cortez ā also has been building up liberal media that could be useful in a presidential run, along with Sanders' political organization.
- Ari Rabin-Havt, a deputy campaign manager for Sanders in 2020, told Axios that AOC "has earned her place as the top dog" among liberals, "and if she does run, she obviously becomes the biggest star and sucks up the oxygen in that lane."
Ocasio-Cortez also is trying to further raise her profile on the national and international stage.
- She drew massive crowds across the country with Sanders in early 2025 as part of his "Fight Oligarchy" tour and tried to boost her foreign policy credentials with a much-hyped trip to the Munich Security Conference.
- Her appearance there last month was marred by some halting, inexact answers that made some Democrats privately say she isn't ready for prime time.
Reality check: Ocasio-Cortez is doing far less campaign infrastructure-building and making fewer national media appearances than other possible presidential candidates.
- She's privately expressed ambivalence about running for president, and some close supporters think she should wait because she's young (36) and has time.
- An Ocasio-Cortez spokesperson declined to comment.
Other potential presidential candidates are trying to position themselves in the same lane, including California Rep. Ro Khanna.
- Some liberals also have touted Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen.
ā Alex Thompson, Holly Otterbein
2. š Centrists' 2028 mission: Stop AOC
CHARLESTON, S.C. ā Moderate Democrats are on a mission to stop the next Bernie Sanders ā starting with Ocasio-Cortez.
- Third Way, an influential center-left group, brought together hundreds of elected officials, party leaders and operatives here this weekend to build a case for nominating a middle-of-the-road Democrat ā not a liberal ā for president in 2028.
Why it matters: Centrist Democrats' efforts to shape the next election have taken on a new urgency as liberals such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and others have unexpectedly won races.
- It's a reflection of the deep divisions within the party over how to take on President Trump's MAGA Republicans.
š¤ What they're saying: Third Way president Jon Cowan kicked off the event Sunday by taking shots at Ocasio-Cortez, the most high-profile democratic socialist eyeing a White House run.
- Cowan said that since 2018 political groups tied to AOC and Sanders "have flipped zero" battleground House seats, making it a risk for the party to pick a liberal to be its standard-bearer, remarks that prompted a swift rebuke.
- š„ Cowan also blasted other liberal heroes, slamming "out-of-touch teachers' unions," criticizing "the language police," and telling Democrats to "stop peddling the idea that there are tens of millions of nonvoters just waiting to be mobilized by a left-wing siren song. It is delusional and widely debunked."
Between the lines: Third Way, one of the chief opponents of Sanders' 2016 and 2020 presidential bids, isn't alone. Since Trump won a second term, new center-left groups such as Searchlight Institute, Majority Democrats and Next American Era have urged the party to move to the middle.
š The other side: Liberals rolled their eyes at the centrist gathering, saying the Democratic establishment's favored nominees have lost to Trump twice. They think a muscular populist vision will inspire people to vote.
- "If I were at the event with these guys, I would want to stand up and say, 'Okay, hear what you're saying. But my question is, what's your prescription for winning back working-class voters?' " said Mark Longabaugh, a top adviser to Sanders' 2016 campaign.
- "'What is your message to them? That we're moderate? That's a message?'"
ā Holly Otterbein
3. š£ļø Dem fault lines on Trump's war
Potential Democratic presidential candidates are blasting Donald Trump's war against Iran, but their criticisms differ ā and a few even echo some Trump talking points.
Why it matters: Their responses reveal subtle but important differences in approaches to foreign policy and political strategy.
š£ What they're saying: Some condemned Trump's push for regime change, while others focused their critiques on Trump not waiting for congressional approval to begin bombing, his military strategy, and his not making the case to voters.
- Former Vice President Harris said that even if Congress had approved Trump's actions, "that does not change the fact this action is unwise, unjustified and not supported by the American people. There can be no equivocation in our opposition to Donald Trump's war of choice."
- Ocasio-Cortez joined Harris in absolute opposition: "This war is unlawful. It is unnecessary. And it will be catastrophic."
šļø Nearly every potential Democratic candidate surveyed by Axios said Trump should have gone through Congress. Some focused on that rather than the goal of regime change, and several noted that Iran's leadership has killed U.S. troops and funded terrorist groups across the Middle East.
- Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said Trump "acted unilaterally ā without congressional approval and outside of the guardrails set up by our founders in Philadelphia nearly 250 years ago." But he added that "the Iranian regime represses its own people and is the leading state sponsor of terrorism around the world."
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom called Trump's moves an "illegal, dangerous war," but also said "the corrupt and repressive Iranian regime must never have nuclear weapons. The leadership of Iran must go."
- New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker argued that Trump had "no plan" for "what happens if the Iranian regime collapses." Booker also called the regime "one of the most dangerous, destabilizing forces in the Middle East."
Several potential candidates called for Congress to immediately return to D.C. to debate U.S. actions, with some calling for a quick vote on a war powers resolution to check Trump's authority.
- Khanna has introduced a measure to prohibit military action against Iran.
- Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly said: "The Senate needs to come back to Washington immediately and do its constitutional duty."
- And Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, an Iraq war veteran, honed-in on the death toll for the military: "A draft-dodger who's never worn a uniform is now risking the lives of working-class kids."
ā Alex Thompson
4. š« Trail mix: The week in the pre-campaign
A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to:
- Harris said she "might" run for the White House again in an interview with liberal podcaster Sharon McMahon. Harris also waded into the competitive Texas Senate primary, recording a robocall for vocal Trump critic Jasmine Crockett.
- Ocasio-Cortez boycotted Trump's State of the Union address.
- A slimmed-down Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker unveiled a new reelection ad showing him "walking to get more steps in." We also learned this week that he owns a "Pritzker for Khan" mug.
- Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told the libertarian outlet Reason that DOGE was a good idea, but "they missed a chance to make real change that could have made government run more efficiently."
- Newsom's spokesperson Izzy Gardon became the story by, among other things, telling a conservative reporter in an email to "Respectfully, f**k off."
- Shapiro vowed to fight two proposed ICE detention centers in his state and announced plans to take on "predatory" AI practices. A Quinnipiac poll found that Pennsylvania voters would oppose an AI data center in their community by an eye-popping margin of 48 percentage points.
- Gallego is campaigning in Texas for gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa today.
- Van Hollen and Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy are speaking at the J Street National Convention over the next two days. The liberal pro-Israel group backs a two-state solution and is critical of the current Israeli government.
- Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear will headline a Michigan Democratic Party dinner on April 18 that will honor Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
5. āļø 1 nerdy thing: SAT stories
Newsom earned headlines and scorn this past week for citing his poor SAT scores as proof of his relatability (something he's done in many past interviews in discussing his dyslexia).
- "I'm not trying to impress you. I'm just trying to impress upon you: I'm like you. I'm no better than you. You know, I'm a 960 SAT guy," he said during a chat with Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens.
We asked Newsom's potential 2028 rivals how they did on their SATs to see how they measured up.
- Most didn't respond, but the responses by Gallego and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel stood out.
- "Gallego went to school in the Midwest; they don't take SATs like coastal elites," his spokesperson told Axios. "His ASVAB [Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery] score was high enough to be in the infantry of United States Marine Corps."
Emanuel told Axios he couldn't remember his exact score.
- "Don't worry about my test scores. Not important to our kids' future," he said.
- "Whatever it was, I got into Sarah Lawrence and Northwestern."
ā Alex Thompson
Thanks to David Lindsey, Axios managing editor for politics, for orchestrating. Edited by Arthur MacMillan.
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Go inside the biggest stories shaping the Democrats' quest to win back power and the forces shaping 2028. With Alex Thompson and Holly Otterbein.






