Dems' divide over Harris surfaces as she looks like a 2028 contender

• In a swing through the deep South, she was greeted like a rock star by enthusiastic crowds of mostly Black men and women, and white women. Many told Axios they want her to run again in 2028.
• Harris' appearances — like early polling for the 2028 race — defied top Democrats' belief that she isn't popular with the party's base, and that people blame her for Donald Trump's 2024 victory.

Many top Democratic lawmakers, donors, and even potential rivals remain skeptical Harris will run again, partly because of her ties to Biden.

• One top Democrat told Axios: "Kamala hasn't accepted she's not running yet."

But Harris' southern tour had the energy of a campaign-in-waiting.

• Traveling by bus, she drew thousands of people to packed auditoriums in New Orleans, Jackson, Miss., and Memphis as part of her recently expanded book tour.
• In New Orleans she got a standing ovation when she was introduced to swear in new Mayor Helena Moreno, a longtime friend and ally.
• Harris has hinted that if she were to run again, she'd call for changes to some pre-Trump policies she was a part of. She told people in Memphis they shouldn't "romanticize" how things were before.

Memphis Mayor Paul Young called Harris — the first woman to be vice president and the first Black woman to occupy the post — "a trailblazer" whom "many of us look up to."

• In Jackson, Mayor John Horhn dramatically bowed in front of Harris and told her: "You don't know how much you mean to Mississippi. You don't know how much you mean to America."
• Horhn was more muted a week earlier when he ran into former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who's also exploring a presidential bid.
• "We could do worse. No doubt about that," Horhn said of Emanuel, before adding that he'd be a "great candidate."

Reality check: Goodwill and popularity aren't the same as political support.

• Many potential 2028 contenders believe Democratic voters will favor the candidate most likely to win — which, to them, means not Harris.
• There also weren't many white men at her recent events at time when some in the party are trying to slice into Republicans' advantage with that demographic.
• Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee could help Harris win the Democratic nomination, but all three states are likely to go to the Republican candidate in the 2028 general election.

The intrigue: Some potential rivals are taking shots at Harris.

• California Gov. Gavin Newsom this week hosted conservative Ben Shapiro on his podcast and falsely claimed that Harris supported abolishing ICE during the 2024 campaign.

• "​​I remember being on [MSNOW's] Chris Hayes hours later saying, 'I think that's a mistake,' " Newsom recalled.
• Newsom's office clarified his comment later, saying he was referring to a 2018 interview in which Harris called on the government to "critically reexamine" ICE and "think about starting from scratch."

The big picture: In the past two decades, winning Black voters — particularly in the South — has been the key to winning the Democratic nomination.

• "When Black voters broke for Barack Obama starting in South Carolina, he couldn't be beat because so much of the primary goes through the Black belt and those southern states," said pollster Cornell Belcher, who worked on Obama's presidential campaigns.
• "If you can't compete with Harris with Black voters, you can't win the South."
• Hillary Clinton (in 2016) and Joe Biden (in 2020) emphasized their work with Obama as part of their pitch to Black voters. In 2028, no candidate will have as strong an association with Obama, leaving an opening.
• Polls indicate Harris has far more support among Black women — Democrats' most loyal voting bloc — than any other potential 2028 candidate. Belcher said that in his polls of Black voters, Harris' favorability is second only to Obama's.

What's next: Harris' swing this week and in the coming weeks is the most extensive any potential 2028 candidate has done so far in the South.

• Her schedule for promoting her book "107 Days" includes events next month in Richmond, Va., Greensboro, N.C., Charlotte, N.C., Columbia, S.C., Savannah, Ga., Macon, Ga., and Montgomery, Ala.
• She told the crowd in Jackson: "If one considers themselves to be an American leader and does not spend time in the South, one cannot be an American leader."