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House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) left, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, (R-Ky.), right, listen as President Donald Trump speaks. Photo: Evan Vucci / AP

Just days away from a crucial vote on the GOP's tax overhaul package, The Tax Foundation and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget have released new analyses breaking down the estimated cost of the bill.

By the numbers: The conservative Tax Foundation predicts the plan will increase the federal deficit by $1.47 trillion, or $448 billion when you factor in economic growth; while the group of budget hawks say it could end up costing $2.2 trillion, or $1.5 trillion including economic growth.

The bottom line: The wide range shows how imprecise the estimates are, but neither group thinks the tax bill is going to pay for itself.

Tax Foundation Analysis:

  • "The plan would significantly lower marginal tax rates and the cost of capital, which would lead to a 1.7 percent increase in GDP over the long term, 1.5 percent higher wages, and an additional 339,000 full-time equivalent jobs."
  • When fully implemented, the bill "would spur an additional $600 billion in federal revenues from economic growth."
  • Over the next decade, the cuts "would increase GDP by 2.86 percent over the current baseline forecasts."
  • "Overall, the plan would decrease federal revenues by $1.47 trillion on a static basis and by $448 billion on a dynamic basis."

Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget analysis:

  • The final plan would "would cost $1.46 trillion under conventional scoring and over $1 trillion on a dynamic basis over ten years, leading debt to rise to between 95 percent and 98 percent" of GDP by 2027 (compared to 91 percent under current law).
  • When factoring in the series of expirations and long-delayed tax hikes incorporated in the bill, the package could end up costing $2.0 trillion to $2.2 trillion, meaning debt would rise to between 98 percent and 100 percent of GDP by 2027.

Go deeper

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Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA/Bloomberg and Michael Brochstein/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan raised normalization with Israel during his recent meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, three U.S. and Arab sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: Saudi Arabia would be the biggest regional player to sign onto the "Abraham Accords" peace agreement with Israel, and such a major breakthrough would likely convince other Arab and Muslim countries to follow suit.

Tech's leaky world

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Tech companies are learning what everyone in Washington already knows: Leaks of confidential info are inevitable, and "plumbing" operations to close them rarely work.

Why it matters: Most tech firms talk up the power of transparency but prefer to keep details of their operations secret from competitors and the public. Researchers, regulators and the media are increasingly relying on information provided by dissident employees and whistleblowers to see inside companies' workings.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

First look: Harris wants more union membership in fed workforce

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a virtual town hall with Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) on Oct. 14. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Vice President Kamala Harris and Labor Secretary Marty Walsh will today announce new guidelines to encourage federal workers to join unions, according to a White House official.

Why it matters: The Biden administration wants to bolster the collective bargaining power of workers across the country – and they are starting at home, with changes in the federal workforce.