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Data: Company and analyst reports; Chart: Axios Visuals

Netflix reports Q2 earnings at market close tomorrow. Analysts don't expect looming competition from streaming competitors to threaten its Q2 growth targets of 0.3 million domestic subscriber adds and 4.7 million international subscriber adds this quarter.

What to watch: Investors will be looking at how price hikes that went into effect this past quarter impact subscriber growth. They will also want to know how those price hikes affected Netflix's free cash flow deficit, which is expected to be roughly the same as it was last year — roughly a negative $3.5 billion.

  • Netflix recently revealed viewing statistics for the third season of "Stranger Things" as well as its new movie "Murder Mystery."
  • Expect questions about the operating costs that are going into driving the success of these hits, including the evolution of Netflix's marketing strategy, which was on full display for the third season of "Stranger Things."

Driving the news: New data from research firm MoffettNathanson suggests that many of Netflix's most popular shows are actually its originals, like "House of Cards" or "Stranger Things," not rented catalog hits that the streaming giant is expected to lose, like "The Office" and "Friends."

Why it matters: Analysts have argued that Netflix's growth has been contingent on its ability to hook users with new content and then keep them from churning with old content. The new data suggests Netflix will survive without some of the hits it rented from its competitors over the years.

Worthy of your time: The Streaming Wars: Its Models, Surprises, and Remaining Opportunities by Matthew Ball

Go deeper

New interactive tool shows Biden's mail voting danger

Data: SurveyMonkey; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Voters who disapprove of President Trump most strongly are by far the most likely to vote by mail in the presidential election, according to an Axios analysis of exclusive data from SurveyMonkey and Tableau.

Why it matters: The new data shows just how strongly the mail-in vote is likely to favor Joe Biden — with potentially enormous implications in the swing states due to the greater risk of rejection with mail ballots.

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
38 mins ago - Health

Reopening the ACA debate is politically risky for GOP

Data: Kaiser Family Foundation, The Cook Political Report; Notes: Those losing insurance includes 2020 ACA marketplace enrollment and 2019 Medicaid expansion enrollment among newly-eligible enrollees. Close races are those defined as "Toss up" or "Lean R/D"; Table: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

The sudden uncertainty surrounding the future of the Affordable Care Act could be an enormous political liability for Republicans in key states come November.

Between the lines: Millions of people in crucial presidential and Senate battlegrounds would lose their health care coverage if the Supreme Court strikes down the law, as the Trump administration is urging it to.

Coronavirus cases rise in 22 states

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Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Map: Andrew Witherspoon, Sara Wise/Axios

The coronavirus is surging once again across the U.S., with cases rising in 22 states over the past week.

The big picture: There isn't one big event or sudden occurrence that explains this increase. We simply have never done a very good job containing the virus, despite losing 200,000 lives in just the past six months, and this is what that persistent failure looks like.

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