From left: Republican candidate Rick Saccone and Democratic candidate Conor Lamb. Photos: Drew Angerer / Getty Images

Democrat Conor Lamb currently has a 6-point edge over Republican Rick Saccone — 51% to 45% — ahead of Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District, according to a new Monmouth University poll that forecasts turnout similar to other special elections this year. The results are a flip from last month's poll, where Saccone led Lamb 49% to 46%.

 “This district has voted overwhelmingly Republican in recent elections, but a large number of these voters have blue-collar Democratic roots. Lamb seems to have connected with them.”
— Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Timing: The poll's release comes on the heels of President Trump's rally in Pennsylvania Saturday night, meant to promote Saccone's candidacy. But as Axios' Jonathan Swan reported, Trump said hardly anything about the Republican candidate because, in reality, the president thinks Saccone "is a terrible, 'weak' candidate."

The poll's findings:

  • 51% of those surveyed would vote for Lamb if the election were held today — while 45% said they would vote for Saccone —with a Democratic surge of voters similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year.
    • In February, the same model showed 46% would vote for Lamb and 49% would vote for Saccone.
  • 47% of those surveyed have a generally favorable view of Saccone, a slight decrease compared to 48% in February but within the poll's margin of error.
  • 53% have a generally favorable view of Lamb, up from 49% in February.

Effect of Trump's tariffs decision: The poll also asked participants about the president's decision to impose tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum, and to what extent they think the tariffs will effect the economy in Pennsylvania's 18th district.

  • 43% said they think the tariffs will help the economy.
  • 36% think they will hurt the economy.
  • 8% think they will have no impact.
  • 13% said they don't know.

Methodology: The poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from March 8 to 11, 2018 with a random sample of 372 likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.1.

Go deeper

Updated 23 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 11:30 p.m. ET: 31,478,387 — Total deaths: 968,726 Total recoveries: 21,622,862Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 11:30 p.m. ET: 6,895,685 — Total deaths: 200,768 — Total recoveries: 2,646,959 — Total tests: 96,612,436Map.
  3. Health: The U.S. reaches 200,000 coronavirus deaths — The CDC's crumbling reputation — America turns against coronavirus vaccine.
  4. Politics: Elected officials are failing us on much-needed stimulus.
  5. Business: Two-thirds of business leaders think pandemic will lead to permanent changes — Fed chair warns economy will feel the weight of expired stimulus.
  6. Sports: NFL fines maskless coaches.

Trump pushes to expand ban against anti-racism training to federal contractors

Trump speaking at Moon Township, Penns., on Sept. 22. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump announced late Tuesday that the White House attempt to halt federal agencies' anti-racism training would be expanded to block federal contractors from "promoting radical ideologies that divide Americans by race or sex."

Why it matters: The executive order appears to give the government the ability to cancel contracts if anti-racist or diversity trainings focused on sexual identity or gender are organized. The memo applies to executive departments and agencies, the U.S. military, federal contractors and federal grant recipients.

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
4 hours ago - Economy & Business

GoodRx prices IPO at $33 per share, valued at $12.7 billion

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

GoodRx, a price comparison app for prescription drugs at local pharmacies, on Tuesday night raised $1.14 billion in its IPO, Axios has learned.

By the numbers: GoodRx priced its shares at $33 a piece, above its $24-$28 per share offering range, which will give it an initial market cap of around $12.7 billion.

Get Axios AM in your inbox

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!