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Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

An analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released Monday found that the $15 federal minimum wage bill proposed by Democrats would cut jobs for 1.4 million workers by 2025, but lift 900,000 people out of poverty.

Why it matters: President Biden included a proposal to increase the minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 an hour in his $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan, but it's facing resistance from moderate Democrats like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Biden said over the weekend that he does not expect the provision to survive negotiations, but that he'll push for it in a separate bill.

  • "No one should work 40 hours a week and live below the poverty wage. And if you’re making less than $15 an hour, you’re living below the poverty wage," Biden said.

Details: The CBO report found that a $15 minimum wage phase-in by June 2025, as proposed by Democrats, would have the following effects:

  • Increase the cumulative budget deficit over the 2021–2031 period by $54 billion.
  • Drive prices higher for goods and services — "stemming from the higher wages of workers paid at or near the minimum wage."
  • Increase wages for 17 million workers who currently make under $15 an hour, as well as 10 million workers whose wages would otherwise be slightly above that wage rate.
  • The cumulative pay of affected people would "increase, on net, by $333 billion."
  • That net increase would come from "higher pay ($509 billion) for people who were employed at higher hourly wages under the bill, offset by lower pay ($175 billion) because of reduced employment under the bill," the report adds.

Context: The CBO is a nonpartisan federal agency that analyzes the effects of proposed fiscal policies.

What they're saying: Senate Budget Committee Chair Bernie Sanders wrote in response on Monday, "I find it hard to understand how the CBO concluded that raising the minimum wage would increase the deficit by $54 billion. Two years ago, CBO concluded that a $15 minimum wage would increase the deficit by less than $1 million over ten years."

  • "The good news, however, is that from a Byrd Rule perspective, the CBO has demonstrated that increasing the minimum wage would have a direct and substantial impact on the federal budget," he added.
  • "What that means is that we can clearly raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour under the rules of reconciliation."

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Feb 8, 2021 - Economy & Business

Jobs report is latest indicator economy doesn't have maximum employment or stable prices

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

January's nonfarm payrolls report made clear that the U.S. is not experiencing, nor is moving toward, maximum employment. The paltry 49,000 jobs added is only the tip of the iceberg of bad news the report contained.

By the numbers: The Labor Department also reported that the U.S. shed an additional 87,000 jobs in December, for a total of 227,000 jobs lost.

Updated 27 mins ago - Health

California surpasses 50,000 COVID-19 deaths

A man prepares a funeral arrangement in in Los Angeles, California, Feb. 12. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

California's death toll from COVID-19 surpassed 50,000 on Wednesday, per Johns Hopkins data.

The big picture: It's the first state to record more than 50,000 deaths from the coronavirus.

2 hours ago - Technology

Facebook bans Myanmar military

A protester holds a placard with a three-finger salute in front of a military tank parked aside the street in front of the Central Bank building during a demonstration in Yangon, Myanmar. Photo by Aung Kyaw Htet/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Facebook said on Wednesday it would ban the rest of the Myanmar military from its platform.

The big picture: It comes some three weeks after the military overthrew the civilian government in a coup and detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi, causing massive protests to erupt throughout the country. Military leaders have been using internet blackouts to try to maintain power in light of the coup.

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