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Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The markets are tanking — the S&P 500 is down 8% in last two months alone — as investors brace for bumpy, if not bad, times ahead.

The big thing: The simple fact that this record period of growth will undoubtedly come to an end, in America and globally. A closely watched bond-market bellwether is this close to flashing a recession signal, Axios' Felix Salmon writes.

Other factors at play:

  • The trade war between the United States and China has gotten personal, with the arrest in Canada of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou. That's erased most hopes of a trade truce. Go deeper.
  • The Fed is beginning to bite. "Three years’ worth of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve are finally starting to pinch interest-rate-sensitive sectors, particularly housing, the auto industry and companies with heavy debt loads," Neil Irwin writes in the NYT.
  • The Trump tax cuts gave the U.S. economy a one-off boost in 2018. That "won’t be repeated in 2019," writes Irwin, "meaning a harder slog for companies seeking higher profits."

Go deeper: 3 warning signs U.S. economy could be close to recession

Editor's note: This article has been corrected to note that Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Canada. An earlier version incorrectly said she was arrested in China.

Go deeper

14 mins ago - Politics & Policy

McConnell drops filibuster demand, paving way for power-sharing deal

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (R) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell attend a joint session of Congress. Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has abandoned his demand that Democrats state, in writing, that they would not abandon the legislative filibuster.

Between the lines: McConnell was never going to agree to a 50-50 power sharing deal without putting up a fight over keeping the 60-vote threshold. But the minority leader ultimately caved after it became clear that delaying the organizing resolution was no longer feasible.

Scoop: Google won't donate to members of Congress who voted against election results

Sen. Ted Cruz led the group of Republicans who opposed certifying the results. Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

Google will not make contributions from its political action committee this cycle to any member of Congress who voted against certifying the results of the presidential election, following the deadly Capitol riot.

Why it matters: Several major businesses paused or pulled political donations following the events of Jan. 6, when pro-Trump rioters, riled up by former President Trump, stormed the Capitol on the day it was to certify the election results.

2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Minority Mitch still setting Senate agenda

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Chuck Schumer may be majority leader, yet in many ways, Mitch McConnell is still running the Senate show — and his counterpart is about done with it.

Why it matters: McConnell rolled over Democrats unapologetically, and kept tight control over his fellow Republicans, while in the majority. But he's showing equal skill as minority leader, using political jiujitsu to convert a perceived weakness into strength.