It's gonna be D.C.'s most wild election year ever
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
2026 will be D.C.'s wildest election year in memory — we'll have a new mayor, several new council members and millions of dollars being spent on determining the city's future.
Why it matters: You gotta pay attention.
The big picture: What makes 2026 so unusual are the ingredients for generational change:
- D.C.'s demographics have been upended since Muriel Bowser became mayor. White and Latino people make up 47% of the population, as of the latest 2024 census data. Black residents comprise 43.5%, a big change from 2015 when it was 48.5%. The key to winning the mayor's office could hinge on bringing in new voters.
- The Trump / DOGE layoffs have blown a hole in the city's jobs market, economy and civic morale. The next crop of leaders will have to steer the ship — while fighting like hell to avoid another Trump takeover.
- A significant part of the old guard is retiring (Mayor Bowser and At-large Council member Anita Bonds) or likely to (Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton).
State of play: We know there will be a new mayor, two new at-large council members, and a new Ward 1 council member, the first time that seat is open in 44 years.
- We could likely have a new delegate, and another new council member as a chain reaction. Council members Robert White and Brooke Pinto are both top contenders for Congress.
- One of the at-large seats is open because Council member Kenyan McDuffie resigned last week to (any day now) run for mayor. Peculiarly, the D.C. Council will decide his interim replacement.
The process runs through one powerful man: Council Chairman Phil Mendelson, who says at least two dozen people are interested. He declined to publicize the list.
- Politically, Mendelson will want someone loyal to him, Wilson Building wags speculate. But he can't bring on an inexperienced bench warmer either when the council's budgeting for a recession. He wants a quick process, with a vote this month.
Friction point: Progressive politics — diminished by budget constraints and the Trump effect — will try to win back influence, with Council member Janeese Lewis George's mayoral campaign and other open seats.
Follow the money: Political spending won't be tamed by a recession. Consultants expect 2026 to be a spending bonanza, with dozens of candidates tapping public financing for their elections.
- Expect outside spending to balloon. Super PAC-esque groups can raise unlimited money — and accept cash from pass-throughs whose donors aren't publicly disclosed, a.k.a. dark money — then blow it on digital ads and mailers. RIP your mailbox.
The bottom line: This election will determine who takes the city into the 2030s.
💭 I didn't even have room for Council member Trayon White's bribery trial (U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro says she "can't wait," while White denies all). Town Talker is a column about money and power in Washington. Tell me about the talk of the town: [email protected]