DMV real estate splits as wealthy buyers stay active
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It's a tale of two markets in the DMV's real estate scene.
The big picture: Inventory is up and sales are stalling as would-be buyers and sellers fret over the local economy, government shutdown and federal layoffs.
- But higher-end buyers are still active, according to Bright MLS data shared with Axios.
What they're saying: Higher-income Washingtonians are feeling more protected from the area's economic woes than the general public, says Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant.
- "The folks at the lower end of the market are just moving much, much more cautiously."
By the numbers: Sales of $2 million-plus homes in the DMV — aka the top 3% — were up 9.9% year-to-date at the end of September, per Bright.
- Meanwhile, overall home sales in the region were down 1.1%.
- Showings were down in September 2025 compared to September 2024. Median days on the market increased, and median sale price remained mostly flat year-over-year.
And 37% of September's $2 million-plus sales were all-cash, compared to 18% of the overall market.
Between the lines: These higher-end buyers aren't sweating mortgage rates, Sturtevant tells Axios.
Yes, but: Continued uncertainty could scare away buyers and stall sales at the lower-end of the $2 million-plus bracket, Sturtevant says.
The intrigue: In just D.C., $2 million-plus home sales actually fell in August and September.
- But this was likely a temporary dip tied to the chilling effect President Trump's crime crackdown had on D.C. real estate, says Sturtevant.
Zoom in: And as for the ultra-luxe market, aka those signing the checks on the area's top 1% of sales? They're likely not fazed by headlines or the economy.
- "[Those are] people who have different concerns," says Sturtevant. "They feel very fine right now."
What we're watching: Whether mortgage rate cuts and inventory increases could lure hesitant buyers back.
- "It's not clear how winners and losers are going to shake out over the next few months if this shutdown continues," says Sturtevant.