How Trump's D.C. crackdown is affecting the real estate market
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The District's real estate market appears to be feeling the effects of President Trump's federal crackdown, per data from Bright MLS — with signs would-be buyers and sellers are proceeding with caution.
Why it matters: Washington's real estate landscape has been cooling, thanks to DOGE cuts and general uncertainty about the economy and job market.
- Listings are taking longer to sell as general supply increases — although prices are holding steady overall, thanks to pent-up demand.
State of play: The District, which is facing a heightened law enforcement presence and increased arrests under the crackdown, saw its real estate numbers drop during the last week of August — a hit that didn't extend to the greater Washington area, Bright MLS found.
- And the market still seems to be moving slowly in September.
By the numbers: It seems buyers may have been swayed away by the Aug. 11 news that Trump was upping federal control over the city: The number of new pending contracts in D.C. dropped 5.7% the last week of August compared with the week prior, per Bright MLS. It was 6.3% lower than the same period last year.
- Real estate showings in the last week of August also dropped — down 16.2% compared with the week before, and 5.9% year over year.
The same goes for sellers: Only 165 new D.C. properties were listed during the week ending Aug. 31 — 16.2% fewer than the week prior, and 15.8% fewer than a year ago.
The intrigue: This downturn was concentrated mostly in the District — the number of newly listed properties in the greater DMV region was up during the same period, as was the number of pending contracts.
Yes, but: While the number of new D.C. listings saw a large jump during the first week of September — 136% — that was only because the number had dropped so low the week prior, Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant tells Axios.
- That number was up only 7.4% when zoomed out to year over year — pretty consistent with the rest of the region, says Sturtevant.
Meanwhile, new pending contracts and showings in D.C. were still down the first week in September compared with a year ago.
What they're saying: "There's definitely this watchfulness among sellers and buyers in D.C.," says Sturtevant. "We're not seeing the same kind of [thing] in the suburbs, which makes me think this is something we could attribute to the D.C.-specific interventions of the federal government."
- The District's market had been doing well over the spring and summer, she tells Axios, which is why the quick dips indicate a sudden skittishness.
What we're watching: If Trump doesn't enact any additional crackdown measures on the District, Sturtevant thinks we'll see the market rebalance itself.
- "Home buyers and sellers are pretty resilient in a lot of ways," she says. "They reset their expectations pretty quickly."
- And if the federal presence makes people feel safer regarding crime, that could up interest in the District's market too, says Sturtevant.
The bottom line: "This is not the beginning of a downward spiral for the District's housing market," says Sturtevant. "I think it's a pause and a reset."