Exclusive: D.C. diners are staying in and spending less
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D.C. diners are pulling back — both spending and going out less, according to a new study from Upside digital marketplace.
Why it matters: A record number of D.C. restaurants closed last year, and many say business conditions are bleak between rising costs and plummeting patronage, with no end in sight.
The big picture: The latest Consumer Price Index report in April revealed that restaurant prices continue to increase nationally — up 3.8% year-over-year — more than food-at-home costs (up 2% year-over-year), per Upside.
- Upside's recent pulse survey of over 1,400 restaurant operators nationally shows that many plan to raise prices, even as they're worried about losing customers.
Zoom in: In D.C., diner spending is down 2.5% over the past two years, per Upside's survey of credit card transactions from nearly 120 restaurants, open from April 2023 through April 2025.
- Washingtonians are also dining out less frequently. The Upside data shows foot traffic to the average D.C. restaurant is 5% lower than two years ago.
What they're saying: "We're seeing a shift in both volume and value," Upside's senior research economist Thomas Weinandy tells Axios in a statement. "Consumers are migrating away from higher-cost dining experiences in favor of options that offer perceived value — whether that's lower prices or more predictable spend."
- Their analysis of restaurants designated with a single "$" on Yelp (under $10 per person) saw a 2% increase over the past two years. While restaurants with more dollar signs (up to $60 per person) saw a 4% decrease in the same period.
Between the lines: Consumers are also spending less within the same restaurants, says Weinandy.
- "The data is unclear how this is happening, but I suspect it's a combination of higher use of promotions, smaller group sizes, and being more selective when ordering, such as skipping dessert and drinks."
The intrigue: While D.C. considers itself a foodie town, Weinandy says "consumers appear willing to sacrifice quality for affordability." Their analysis of Yelp data revealed that foot traffic was relatively stable for D.C. restaurants with low ratings (1-3 stars), while restaurants with 3.5+ stars saw the steepest decline in visits.
Zoom out: Upside's report echoes grim findings in the Restaurant Association of Metropolitan Washington's latest member survey, which polled nearly 200 DMV businesses — almost all small and independent restaurants, and local hospitality groups.
- In the survey, 44% of respondents say they're 'likely to close" by the end of this year.
Reality check: Restaurants continue to open, and the poll is just a sliver of the RAMW's 1,500 members. Still, it's a "snapshot of what the industry is fearing and facing," the group's president, Shawn Townsend, told Axios.
What we're watching: Mayor Bowser's new, controversial proposal to help struggling restaurants by repealing Initiative 82. The law raises the minimum wage for tipped workers — and labor costs for businesses— though the city argues it's not working. They say it only adds a financial burden to restaurants while lowering wages for many employees, who are seeing fewer tips.
- The proposal will go before the D.C. Council once Bowser releases her new budget.