D.C. doesn't have enough white-collar jobs for fired federal workers
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The Washington region may not have enough white-collar jobs to absorb the federal workers being laid off by the Trump administration, according to data from Indeed.
Why it matters: Job posting data shows there are not enough "knowledge worker" roles in the DMV to support the estimated flood of fired federal workers who could soon be looking for a job, per Indeed.
The big picture: The number of federal employees filing initial claims for unemployment compensation has risen sharply in the District since President Trump took office and Elon Musk's DOGE began its purge, per Department of Labor data.
- 115 former federal employees filed an initial claim during the week ending March 1. That number was 170 the week before.
- The week Trump took office, the number was 119 — up from 16 the week before.
Meanwhile, the job market has cooled nationally since the big hiring environment of a few years ago.
State of play: While overall job postings in the U.S. are up compared with pre-pandemic numbers, they were down 13.8% in the DMV as of Feb. 28, per Indeed.
- Job openings for knowledge workers — usually white-collar, critical-thinking skills roles — in the DMV have been especially impacted: While Washington's numbers are higher than the national average, they were down 39% last month compared with February 2020 levels.
- This hit to white-collar jobs could especially impact federal employees looking for work, as around 92% of federal workers hold such roles, according to the Pew Research Center.
What they're saying: Laid-off federal workers are "going to be really difficult to absorb in an already competitive market" as more people duke it out for fewer jobs, says Allison Shrivastava, an economist with Indeed Hiring Lab.
- And there will likely be ripple effects, as these terminations could lead to "secondary layoffs" in connected sectors like contracting, says Shrivastava.
- Plus, a hit to office foot traffic could adversely impact businesses that depend on it.
The intrigue: Maryland and Virginia are pitching state jobs to former federal employees.
- Both Gov. Wes Moore and Gov. Glenn Youngkin have recently made public calls for federal employees to consider state employment and have touted state-sponsored employment sites and job fairs. The District has done the same with city jobs.
- Maryland is introducing a pilot program to help civil servants shift their skills to state agencies.
- States from New York to Hawaii are recruiting federal employees too.
Zoom in: This comes as some local federal workers are turning to dining and hospitality roles as a way to make ends meet while job hunting.
Caveat: Indeed uses postings for "software developer" jobs as proxies for knowledge-worker jobs.