A warmer- and drier-than-average winter is favored along the southern tier. The probability of temperatures leaning above warmer in the DMV is 40-50%.
Other factors, like the polar vortex and North Atlantic patterns of air pressure, are likely to assert themselves, leading to large week-to-week variability.
Between the lines: Human-caused climate change could overcome the typical effects of a weak La Niña to be a top factor influencing winter weather.
"Winter for many regions across the U.S. is the fastest warming season of all the seasons," says NOAA climate expert Tom Di Liberto.