Control of Minnesota's Capitol up for grabs in midterm election
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
The balance of power at Minnesota's Capitol could again come down to hundreds — perhaps even dozens — of votes in a handful of competitive districts across the state.
Why it matters: Along with the governor's race, the outcome of hotly contested legislative contests will determine whether the state returns to divided government or single-party control next year.
- The future of everything from tax rates to gun laws hangs in the balance.
By the numbers: The House was locked in a rare tie last session, while Democrats have a 34-33 majority in the Senate.
- All 201 legislative seats are on the ballot Tuesday, but both sides consider only a few dozen in play.
The big issues: Republicans are emphasizing fraud, taxes and state spending, arguing that Minnesota needs a change in leadership after decades of Democrats controlling all or most of state government.
- Democrats are campaigning on affordability, including health care costs, protecting trifecta policies and pushing back against Trump.
What they're saying: "Fundamentally, midterms are referendums on the president, and in this case, cost of living and the president's mismanagement of the country are the overriding dynamics and what we hear at the doors," House DFL Leader Zack Stephenson told Axios in an interview.
- "I think the No. 1 thing on peoples' mind is still fraud," Senate GOP Leader Mark Johnson countered on MPR's "Politics Friday" last week. "I was just door knocking… on [a] Saturday in Detroit Lakes, and that was what I heard."
State of play: Many analysts and insiders generally give Democrats an edge in the House, where Republicans are defending six seats that the Democratic presidential ticket won in 2024.
- House Democrats are fighting to hold just one district that went for President Trump, an open seat in St. Cloud.
The Senate is more of a wild card. Democrats are defending four "majority-makers" running for reelection in districts that clinched their majority in 2022.
- Three of those — Sens. Grant Hauschild of Hermantown, Rob Kupec of Moorhead and Aric Putnam of St. Cloud — are running in seats Trump carried in 2024.
Yes, but: Democrats also see opportunities to flip GOP-held districts, including an open one in Maple Grove and longtime Sen. Jim Abeler's Anoka-area seat. Kamala Harris won both those districts in 2024.
Follow the money: GOP-aligned groups have poured over $12 million into the state Senate races, the Star Tribune reported this week.
- That's close to $5 million over what Democrats spent.
Worth noting: This year's ballots also feature rematches in several districts won by the narrowest of margins in 2024, including the 14-vote Shakopee-area seat that triggered a recount and a legal battle last time.
The intrigue: Some Democrats believe that the surprisingly competitive 1st Congressional District race could boost turnout down-ballot, putting even more GOP-held Southern Minnesota seats in play.
The bottom line: Election forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball says both chambers look "highly competitive."
- "While a massive blue wave puts a finger on the scale for Democrats, the situation is fluid enough for us to keep both chambers at Toss-up," they wrote.
Go deeper with the Star Tribune's interactive guide to top targets and MPR News' deep dive on the DFL and GOP policy agendas.