A brown winter? Forecasts point to warm weather
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Put on your earmuffs, cold weather lovers, because you may not want to hear this news: The forecasts are pointing to a warm Minnesota winter without much snow.
Why it matters: For some of us, winter is why we live here. But recent balmy winters have also hurt tourism businesses and canceled popular events.
What they're saying: "This could conceivably be more of a Kansas City winter for parts of Minnesota," meteorologist Paul Douglas said on his Weather Loon channel.
- "This promises to be an El Niño like no other," Douglas added, noting that we could see temps 5 to 7 degrees warmer than average.
It's not just Douglas. The National Weather Service's long-term forecast also says there's a strong chance for a warm winter, at least through December. The rest of the winter forecast will come in later outlooks.
By the numbers: A Minnesota DNR analysis found that in the 27 El Niño winters since 1950, temperatures were 2.4 degrees warmer and produced 24% less snow than non-El Niño winters.
Yes, but: El Niño doesn't prevent intense weather. In fact, the 1991 Halloween blizzard came during a very strong El Niño, the DNR said. While that fall was cold and snowy, the winter eventually turned mild.
Between the lines: A recent study suggests human-caused climate change is making El Niños stronger, and the Twin Cities has certainly seen the effects of warming winters.
- Last winter came in slightly below the 54 inches we get in a normal winter, but it was front-loaded in November and December. In the two prior winters, less than 30 inches fell.
Reality check: Predicting weather months out is difficult. Last year's NWS outlook suggested a cold and snowy winter, but it ended up fairly normal.
The bottom line: Soak up what is typically some of the best weather of the year, because winter — real or wimpy — is right around the corner.